Method and system for increasing accuracy in shipping and inventory forecasting

• US 20040148217A1
• Filed: 01/24/2003
• Published: 07/29/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 01/24/2003
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: General Mills Incorporated
• Original Assignee: General Mills Incorporated
• Inventors: Taylor, Eric A., Jensen, Brenda J., Curtis, Todd E., Lauring, Stephen R.
• Application Number:
  US10/350,983
• Publication Number:
  US 20040148217A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06314 Calendaring for a resource
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation

Abstract

The present invention is directed to a method and system to improve the accuracy of shipment forecasting in order to control inventory build and depletion periods. Precision in shipment forecasting stabilizes management of retail products or brands and the related or associated portfolio and connected business units. The process of the present invention involves the establishment of an initial data foundation that is created through the use of retail sales forecasts obtained from various consumer data sets. The system then applies one or more additional data sets that include information pertaining to historical shipments (actual sales) and inventory information to the first or foundation data set. These data sets are then reconciled with one another to obtain shipment forecast and inventory control levels. These commingled data sets provide a data pattern or map that is then used in conjunction with the retail sales forecast to assist in estimating future shipments for inventory demand or decline. The resulting information set provides a better or more accurate forecast of expected shipment volumes and projects inventory build or depletion periods thereby providing an improved forecasting tool to more accurately predict the retail environment'"'"'s inventory position, thus facilitating better brand management.

Claims

1. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control, comprising the steps of:

providing a consumer demand module for products having at least a first data set including consumer purchase levels;

creating a group of supplemental factors known to influence said consumer purchase levels;

utilizing said consumer demand module to create a sales forecast;

introducing at least a portion of said supplemental factors from said first group of supplemental factors to said consumer demand module;

adjusting said sales forecast based on said supplemental factors;

providing historical shipment information in a second data set;

creating a shipping forecast by integrating said second data set with at least a portion of said first group of supplemental factors; and

aligning said shipping forecast, and said sales forecast to create a future inventory shipping forecast to accurately estimate future shipments and inventory requirements for at least one commercial segment.

2. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 1, wherein said products are consumer goods.

3. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 2, wherein said consumer goods are intended for human or animal consumption.

4. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 1, wherein said first group of supplemental factors includes pricing, advertising levels, merchandising, packaging size, seasonality, and combinations thereof.

5. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 1, wherein said at least one commercial segment includes retail and wholesale locations.

6. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 5, wherein said retail and wholesale locations are grocery outlets.

7. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 5, wherein said retail and wholesale locations include channel outlets.

8. A method for determining inventory build and bleed times for consumer products, comprising the steps of;

initially providing a first data set collected from a grouping of historical purchasing trends;

modifying said first data set with a portion of a consumer expectation data set;

said consumer expectation data set containing information obtained from a pre-selected group of supplemental factors that effect volume requirements;

providing a second data set having inventory information from at least one location;

creating a third data set having historical shipping information obtained from shipment data to said at least one location;

merging said first, second and third data sets to modify said consumer expectation data set; and

reporting said consumer expectation data set to at least one scheduling facility such that said scheduling facility can accurately predict shipping demands.

9. A method for determining inventory build and bleed times for consumer products as recited in claim 8, wherein said consumer products are intended for human and animal consumption.

10. A method for determining inventory build and bleed times for consumer products as recited in claim 8, wherein pre-selected group of supplemental factors includes pricing, advertising levels, merchandising, packaging size, seasonality, and combinations thereof.

11. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 8, wherein said at least one location includes retail and wholesale locations.

12. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 11, wherein said retail and wholesale locations are grocery outlets.

13. A method for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory control as recited in claim 8, wherein said retail and wholesale locations include channel outlets.

14. A system for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory levels, comprising;

a first data set, said first data set having a consumer demand profile,

a group of ancillary elements known to influence consumer demand;

said consumer demand profile obtained from historical purchasing levels that have been adjusted according to at least a portion of said group of ancillary elements;

a second data set, said second data set including historical shipment information that has been adjusted according to at least a portion of said group of ancillary elements;

a third data set, said third data set including historical inventory levels from at least one location;

at least one calculator that compares information contained in each of said first, second and third data sets to generate a correction factor to modify said consumer demand profile contained in said first data set; and

a display for illustrating future shipment and inventory requirements for said at least one location.

15. A system for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory levels as recited in claim 14, wherein said system is used for consumer products.

16. A system for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory levels as recited in claim 15, wherein the consumer products are products intended for human and animal consumption.

17. A system for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory levels as recited in claim 14, wherein said group of ancillary elements includes pricing, advertising levels, merchandising, packaging size, seasonality, and combinations thereof.

18. A system for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory levels as recited in claim 14, wherein said at least one location includes retail and wholesale locations.

19. A system for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory levels as recited in claim 18, wherein said retail and wholesale locations are grocery outlets.

20. A system for increasing forecasting accuracy for shipment and inventory levels as recited in claim 18, wherein said retail and wholesale locations include channel outlets.

21. A shipping demand forecasting system, comprising;

a first data set including information on actual sales information, said first data set further including data from a group of supplemental and external factors that effect said sales information;

a second data set including information on inventory levels for at least one location;

a third data set including information on actual shipments made to said at least one location;

a comparator for comparing said first data set to said third data set to determine a correction factor to create a sales information forecast, said comparator then comparing said sales information forecast with said second data set from said at least one location; and

wherein said comparator creates a report setting forth an estimated shipping forecast for said at least one location from said first, second and third data sets, and said report provides information for planning for said group of supplemental and external factors.

22. A shipping demand forecasting system as recited in claim 21, wherein said group of supplemental and external factors includes pricing, advertising levels, merchandising, packaging size, seasonality, and combinations thereof.

23. A shipping demand forecasting system as recited in claim 21, wherein said is used for consumer products.

24. A shipping demand forecasting system as recited in claim 21, wherein said consumer products are intended for human and animal consumption.

25. A shipping demand forecasting system as recited in claim 21, wherein said at least one location includes retail and wholesale locations.

26. A shipping demand forecasting system as recited in claim 25, wherein said retail and wholesale locations are grocery outlets.

27. A shipping demand forecasting system as recited in claim 25, wherein said retail and wholesale locations include channel outlets.

28. A shipping demand forecasting system as recited in claim 25, wherein said channel outlets include drug stores, convenience stores, discounters and mass merchandisers.