System and method for finance forecasting

• US 20040176994A1
• Filed: 03/08/2004
• Published: 09/09/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 10/11/2001
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. (HP Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. (HP Inc.)
• Inventors: Blocher, Philip, Huberman, Bernardo A., Fine, Leslie R.
• Application Number:
  US10/797,785
• Publication Number:
  US 20040176994A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes

Abstract

The disclosed embodiments relate to a method of finance forecasting. The method may comprise determining at least one participant characteristic of a participant, defining probability bins each of the probability bins corresponding to a probability associated with an expected outcome, performing a query process with the probability bins as assets, and aggregating a result of the query process with weighting for the participant characteristic.

Claims

1. A method of finance forecasting, comprising:

determining at least one participant characteristic of a participant;

defining probability bins, each of the probability bins corresponding to a probability associated with an expected outcome;

performing a query process with the probability bins as assets; and

aggregating a result of the query process with weighting for the participant characteristic.

2. The method of claim 1, comprising conducting an information market to determine the participant characteristic.

3. The method of claim 1, comprising defining a center probability bin and defining the probability bins with increasing variances from the center probability bin outward.

4. The method of claim 3, comprising providing a mean estimate as the center probability bin.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein defining the probability bins comprises subdividing historical true data into the probability bins.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the act of performing a query process comprises wagering by the participant on the expected outcome.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the weighting includes an individual participant prediction with exponential factoring for the participant characteristic and the query process as a whole.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the query process comprises a matching market.

7. The method of claim 7, comprising facilitating the participant wagering by providing a web-based software application.

10. A computer system for finance forecasting, comprising:

a characteristic determination module that determines at least one participant characteristic of a participant;

a probability bin module that defines probability bins each of the probability bins corresponding to a probability associated with an expected outcome;

a query module that performs a query process with the probability bins as assets; and

an aggregation module that aggregates a result of the query process with weighting for the participant characteristic.

11. The computer system of claim 10, comprising an information market module adapted to determine the participant characteristic.

12. The computer system of claim 10, comprising a probability bin variance module that defines a center probability bin and other probability bins with increasing variances from the center probability bin outward.

13. The computer system of claim 12, comprising a mean estimate module adapted to provide a mean estimate as the center probability bin.

14. The computer system of claim 10, comprising a subdividing module that subdivides historical true data into the probability bins.

15. The computer system of claim 10, comprising a wager module that facilitates wagering by the participant on the expected outcome.

16. The computer system of claim 15, comprising a web module that facilitates the participant wagering by providing a web-based software application.

17. The computer system of claim 10, comprising a factoring module that incorporates an individual participant prediction with exponential factoring for the participant characteristic and the query process as a whole.

18. The computer system of claim 10, comprising a matching market module adapted to determine the expected outcome.

19. A computer system for finance forecasting, comprising:

means for determining at least one participant characteristic of a participant;

means for defining probability bins each of the probability bins corresponding to a probability associated with an expected outcome;

means for performing a query process with the probability bins as assets; and

means for aggregating a result of the query process with weighting for the participant characteristic.

20. The computer system of claim 19, comprising means for running an information market to determine the participant characteristic.

21. The computer system of claim 19, comprising means for defining a center probability bin and means for defining the probability bins with increasing variances from the center probability bin outward.

22. A computer program, comprising:

a tangible medium;

a characteristic determination module stored on the tangible medium, the characteristic determination module adapted to determine at least one participant characteristic of a participant;

a probability bin module stored on the tangible medium, the probability bin module adapted to define probability bins, each of the probability bins corresponding to a probability associated with an expected outcome;

a query module stored on the tangible medium the query module adapted to perform a query process with the probability bins as assets; and

an aggregation module stored on the tangible medium, the aggregation module adapted to aggregates a result of the query process with weighting for the participant characteristic.

23. The computer program of claim 22, comprising an information market module stored on the tangible medium adapted for running an information market to determine the participant characteristic.