Weather forecast accuracy verification and evaluation system

• US 20040215483A1
• Filed: 04/28/2004
• Published: 10/28/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 04/28/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Strategic Design Federation W, LLC
• Original Assignee: Bruce A. Fixman
• Inventors: Fixman, Bruce A.
• Granted Patent: US 7,107,152 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising

Abstract

A method and system verify the accuracy of weather forecasting entity, such as a television station, a radio station, newspaper or other the like. A weather forecast for the entity is obtained for a given geographic region and a given forecast time period, the forecast including a set of one or more forecast data elements. The set of forecast data elements is converted to a set of one or more numerical values. A set of one or more actual weather condition data elements is obtained for the given geographic region and period of time. The set of actual weather condition data elements is converted to a set of one or more numerical values. The set of actual weather condition numerical values is compared with the set of forecast numerical values. A forecast accuracy score is computed based on the comparison of the set of actual weather condition numerical values and the set of forecast numerical values. The accuracy of a weather forecasting entity is compared with that of a second weather forecasting entity by obtaining a weather forecast for the second weather forecasting entity for the given geographic region and forecast time period, the second forecast including a second set of forecast data elements. Scores for each television station within a market are compared with each other to determine the one station with the best score.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating accuracy of a weather forecasting entity, the method comprising:

obtaining a weather forecast for the entity for a given geographic region and for a given forecast time period, the forecast comprising a set of one or more forecast data elements;

converting the set of forecast data elements to a set of one or more numerical values;

obtaining a set of one or more actual weather condition data elements for the given geographic region and for a given forecast time period;

converting the set of actual weather condition data elements to a set of one or more numerical values;

comparing the set of actual weather condition numerical values with the set of forecast numerical values; and

computing a forecast accuracy score based on the comparison of the set of actual weather condition numerical values and the set of forecast numerical values.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein each of the set of forecast data elements and the set of actual weather condition data elements includes specific elements.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein each of the set of forecast data elements and the set of actual weather condition data elements includes abstract elements.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the weather forecasting entity is a television station that broadcasts in at least a portion of the geographical area.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein the set of forecast data elements includes one or more of forecast high temperature, forecast low temperature, forecast sky condition, forecast precipitation type, forecast precipitation timing and forecast other weather phenomena.

6. The method of claim 5 wherein the forecast sky condition data element is selected from the group consisting of sunny, partly cloudy, mostly cloudy and cloudy.

7. The method of claim 5 wherein the forecast precipitation type data element is selected from the group consisting of rain, snow, ice, and mixed.

8. The method of claim 5 wherein the forecast other weather phenomena data element is selected from the group consisting of snow depth, strong wind, dense fog and severe thunderstorm.

9. The method of claim 1 wherein a forecast accuracy score is computed based on high temperature, low temperature, weather and weather additional data element points.

10. The method of claim 1 wherein the forecast time period is about one day.

11. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

obtaining one or more additional forecasts for the given geographic region and for one or more additional forecast time periods, the additional forecasts each comprising a set of one or more forecast data elements;

converting the one or more additional sets of forecast data elements to one or more corresponding sets of forecast numerical values;

obtaining a set of one or more additional actual weather condition data elements for the given geographic region and for each of the one or more additional forecast time periods;

converting the one or more sets of additional actual weather condition data elements to corresponding additional sets of actual weather condition numerical values; and

comparing the one or more additional sets of actual weather condition numerical values with the corresponding one or more sets of forecast numerical values; and

wherein computing the forecast accuracy score is further based on the comparison of the additional sets of actual weather condition numerical values with the corresponding additional sets of forecast numerical values.

12. The method of claim 11 wherein computing the forecast accuracy score comprises calculating a periodic score for each of the comparisons of one or more additional sets of actual weather condition numerical values with the corresponding one or more sets of forecast numerical values and weighting each of the periodic scores to obtain a weighted score.

13. The method of claim 12 wherein weighting the periodic score is based on the recency of the score.

14. The method of claim 11, wherein each of the forecast time periods is about one day and the forecast time periods cover a total period of about four days.

15. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

obtaining a weather forecast for a second weather forecasting entity for the given geographic region and period of time, the second forecast comprising a second set of forecast data elements;

converting the second set of forecast data elements to a second set of one or more forecast numerical values;

comparing the set of actual weather condition numerical values with the second set of forecast numerical values;

computing a second forecast accuracy score based on the comparison of the set of actual weather condition numerical values and the second set of forecast numerical values; and

comparing the forecast accuracy score with the second forecast accuracy score.

16. The method of claim 15 wherein each of the first and second weather forecasting entities is a television station that broadcasts in at least a portion of the geographical area.

17. The method of claim 15 wherein each of the weather forecasting entities is a television station that broadcasts in at least a portion of the geographical area.

18. The method of claim 15, wherein the period of time is about one day.

19. A system for evaluating accuracy of a weather forecasting entity, the system comprising:

a database operable to store data including;

a set of one or more forecast weather data elements associated with a given geographic region and period of time and a forecasting entity;

a set of one or more actual weather condition data elements associated with the given geographic region and period of time; and

rules for converting the forecast weather data elements and the actual weather condition elements to a set of one or more numerical values;

an application program operable with the database to;

convert the forecast weather data elements to a set of one or more numerical values using the rules;

convert the set of actual weather condition data elements to a set of one or more numerical values using the rules;

compare the set of actual weather condition numerical values with the set of forecast numerical values; and

compute a forecast accuracy score based on the comparison of the set of actual weather condition numerical values and the set of forecast numerical values.

20. The system of claim 19 wherein each of the set of forecast data elements and the set of actual weather condition data elements includes specific elements.

21. The system of claim 19 wherein each of the set of forecast data elements and the set of actual weather condition data elements includes abstract elements.

22. The system of claim 19 wherein the weather forecasting entity is a television station that broadcasts in at least a portion of the geographical area.

23. The system of claim 19 wherein the set of forecast data elements includes one or more of forecast high temperature, forecast low temperature, forecast sky condition, forecast precipitation type, forecast precipitation timing and forecast other weather phenomena.

24. The system of claim 23 wherein the forecast sky condition data element is selected from the group consisting of sunny, partly cloudy, mostly cloudy and cloudy.

25. The system of claim 23 wherein the forecast precipitation type data element is selected from the group consisting of rain, snow, ice, and mixed.

26. The system of claim 23 wherein the forecast other weather phenomena data element is selected from the group consisting of snow depth, strong wind, dense fog and severe thunderstorm.

27. The system of claim 19 wherein a forecast accuracy score is computed based on high temperature, low temperature, weather and weather additional data element points.

28. The system of claim 19 wherein the forecast time period is part or all of a twenty-four hour period.

29. The system of claim 19, wherein a spreadsheet program comprises the application program.

30. The system of claim 19, wherein:

the database is operable to store a second set of forecast data elements associated with the given geographic region and period of time and with a second forecasting entity; and

the application program is operable with the database to;

convert the second set of forecast data elements to a second set of one or more forecast numerical values;

compare the set of actual weather condition numerical values with the second set of forecast numerical values;

compute a second forecast accuracy score based on the comparison of the set of actual weather condition numerical values and the second set of forecast numerical values; and

compare the forecast accuracy score with the second forecast accuracy score.

31. A computer system for evaluating the accuracy of weather forecasting entities for a given geographic region, the system comprising:

a central processing unit (CPU);

a forecast weather database operable with the CPU and comprising forecast data elements for a first weather forecasting entity and forecast data elements for a second weather forecasting entity;

an actual weather database operable with the CPU and comprising actual data elements;

at least one input device operable to input weather forecasting data elements into the forecast weather database;

the CPU being programmed to;

convert the forecast weather data elements to one or more numerical values;

convert the actual weather condition data elements to numerical values;

compare the actual weather condition numerical values with the set of forecast numerical values;

compute a forecast accuracy score for each of the first weather forecasting entity and the second weather forecasting entity based on the comparison of the actual weather condition numerical values and the forecast numerical values; and

compare the forecast accuracy score for the first weather forecasting entity with the forecast accuracy score for the second weather forecasting entity.

32. The computer system of claim 31 wherein the forecast weather data elements for the weather forecasting entities are for the same geographic region and period of time.

33. The computer system of claim 31 wherein the forecast data elements for at least one of the weather forecasting entities are entered in an online data entry system by the weather forecasting entity.

34. The computer system of claim 31 wherein the forecast weather data elements include one or more of forecast high temperature, forecast low temperature, forecast sky condition, forecast precipitation type, forecast precipitation timing and forecast other weather phenomena.

35. The computer system of claim 31 wherein the actual weather data elements include one or more of actual high temperature, actual low temperature, actual sky condition, actual precipitation type and timing and actual other weather phenomena.