System and method for energy price forecasting automation
First Claim
1. A method for forecasting a retail price of electricity for an end user customer in a deregulated market, comprising the steps of:
- performing a digital simulation of marginal clearing prices and hourly customer load;
determining a risk premium to be added to the forecasted retail price based on an expected wholesale price volatility and an expected variability of customer load;
performing a supply price analysis; and
presenting the results of the supply price analysis to the customer.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A method and computer program product for forecasting the retail price of electricity for a customer in a deregulated market and for providing probabilistic valuation of costs and risks. The method includes the steps of performing a digital simulation of marginal clearing prices and hourly customer load to derive expected and probabilistic forecasts of load-weighted wholesale prices and costs for a customer; determining a supplier risk premium to be added to the forecasted retail price based on an expected wholesale price volatility, an expected variability of customer load, and a set of contractual conditions governing price structure, volume flexibility, and financial options embedded within a contract; performing a supply price analysis; and presenting the results of the supply price analysis to the customer. The method can also include the steps of performing a cash flow at risk analysis and/or performing a price duration analysis and/or financial valuation of options embedded in supply contracts such as collars (caps/floors) and contract extension options from the supplier or the end-user and combining the results with the results of the supply price analysis.
123 Citations
68 Claims
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1. A method for forecasting a retail price of electricity for an end user customer in a deregulated market, comprising the steps of:
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performing a digital simulation of marginal clearing prices and hourly customer load;
determining a risk premium to be added to the forecasted retail price based on an expected wholesale price volatility and an expected variability of customer load;
performing a supply price analysis; and
presenting the results of the supply price analysis to the customer. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27)
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28. A computer program product for forecasting a retail price of electricity for an end-user customer in a deregulated market, comprising:
a computer usable medium having computer readable code embodied therein, the computer usable medium comprising;
program instructions that determine a risk premium to be added to the forecasted retail price based on an expected wholesale price volatility and an expected variability of customer load;
program instructions that perform a supply price analysis; and
program instructions that present the results of the supply price analysis to the customer. - View Dependent Claims (29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51)
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52. A computer system for forecasting a retail price of electricity for an end-user customer in a deregulated market, comprising:
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a component that performs a digital simulation of marginal clearing prices and hourly customer load;
a component that determines a risk premium to be added to the forecasted retail price based on an expected wholesale price volatility and an expected variability of customer load;
a component that performs a supply risk analysis; and
a component that presents the results of the supply price analysis to the customer. - View Dependent Claims (53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68)
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Specification