System and method for representing and incorporating available information into uncertainty-based forecasts
First Claim
1. A system for representing and incorporating available information into uncertainty-based forecasts comprises:
- a model module configured for providing at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model;
a parameter module configured for providing parameter values of the at least one model; and
a data processing module configured for utilizing the at least one model and the parameter values to create an uncertainty-based forecast.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A system and method for representing and incorporating available information into uncertainty-based forecasts is provided. The system comprises a new class of models able to efficiently and effectively represent uncertainty-based forecasts with a wide range of characteristics with greater accuracy. Further, methods provide for selection of a most appropriate model from the class of models and calibration of the selected model to all available data, including both directly relevant historical data and expert opinion and analysis. An output is a model that can be used to generate an uncertainty-based forecast for a variable or variables of interest accurately and efficiently. In addition, methods for refining input data and testing and refining the output representation of the uncertainty-based forecast are provided.
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Citations
26 Claims
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1. A system for representing and incorporating available information into uncertainty-based forecasts comprises:
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a model module configured for providing at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model;
a parameter module configured for providing parameter values of the at least one model; and
a data processing module configured for utilizing the at least one model and the parameter values to create an uncertainty-based forecast. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. A method for representing and incorporating available information into uncertainty-based forecast comprising:
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receiving the available information;
selecting at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model;
selecting parameter values of the at least one model; and
generating the uncertainty-based forecast. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
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21. A computer readable medium having embodied thereon a program, the program being executable by a machine to represent and incorporate available information into uncertainty-based forecast comprising:
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receiving the available information;
selecting at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model;
selecting parameter values for the at least one model; and
generating the uncertainty-based forecast. - View Dependent Claims (22)
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23. A method for determining the parameter values of the at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model utilizing available information from expert opinion and analysis comprising:
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identifying a form of the available information from expert opinion and analysis;
establishing a first set of equations of which parameter values of the at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model must satisfy using the available information from expert opinion and analysis;
establishing a second set of equations of which the parameter values of the at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model must satisfy using the available information from expert opinion and analysis about conditional distributions of an uncertainty-based forecast; and
determining the parameter values of the at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model utilizing the first and second set of equations. - View Dependent Claims (24, 25)
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26. A computer readable medium having embodied thereon a program, the program being executable by a machine to determine the parameter values of at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model with available information from expert opinion and analysis comprising:
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identifying a form of the available information from expert opinion and analysis;
establishing a first set of equations of which parameter values of the at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model must satisfy using the available information from expert opinion and analysis;
establishing a second set of equations of which the parameter values of the at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model must satisfy using the available information from expert opinion and analysis about conditional distributions of an uncertainty-based forecast; and
determining the parameter values of the at least one locally mean-reverting-diverting model utilizing the first and second set of equations.
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Specification