Method and apparatus/software to assist persons in complex cause-and-effect reasoning

• US 20040243532A1
• Filed: 10/03/2002
• Published: 12/02/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 10/03/2002
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Problematics LLC
• Original Assignee: Problematics LLC
• Inventors: Steward, Donald
• Application Number:
  US10/264,437
• Publication Number:
  US 20040243532A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/57
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 8/20 Software design
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/01 Dynamic search techniques; Heuristics; Dynamic trees; Branch-and-bound

Abstract

A method has been developed for generating, refining and determining the consequences of complex systems of multiple cause and effect relationships. The novel method is applicable to biological systems as well as man-made systems, as it is based on the collecting and using observed behaviors as well as previous understood mechanism or relationships. The method is particularly useful in multi-variable system with significant interactions among sub-components, especially when there is limited expertise or complete understanding of all the components and their respective relationships interactions. In these cases the method provides guidance for future experiments that develop further expertise. The method has particular power and benefit as it provides for a distinction and comparison of the merits of conducting further experiments based on defined criteria. For example alternative solutions or experiments can be suggested and distinguished on the basis of cost, delay or a negative or detrimental outcome, based on prior experience and knowledge of interactions, in contrast to those that provide additional insight or solve the problem with a lower risk of negative implications.

Claims

1. A method of developing a cause and effect model, the method comprising the steps of:

a) specifying primary events,

b) characterizing each primary event as either a controllable or an assumption,

c) specifying secondary events,

d) providing a plurality of primitive cause and effect relation between at least a subset of the events,

e) representing the plurality of primitive cause and effect relations by a system of simultaneous Boolean equations having Boolean expressions stated in one implementation in canonical disjunctive form,

f) solving the Boolean equations to express the existence or non-existence of every secondary event in terms of the existence or non-existence of the primary events.

2. A method of developing a cause and effect model according to claim 1, the method further comprising the steps of:

a) characterizing each secondary event as observable, or intermediate.

b) providing the state of one or more observable secondary events.

3. A method of developing a cause and effect model according to claim 1, the method further comprising the steps of:

a) assigning a first set of probabilities to each of the primary effects, and

b) assigning to each term of each primitive cause and effect relation a second set of probabilities that the joint presence or absence of the causes specified by that term would cause the resulting event to exist,

c) multiplying the probabilities of the first and second sets of probability associated with each cause of each term to reach a third set of probabilities of all the causes for that term existing or not existing as specified by the term, and thus the term being satisfied.

38. A method of developing a model according to claim 1, the method further comprising the step of transmitting from a first computer system to a second computer system one or more instruction that modify at least one of the simultaneous Boolean equations.

4. A method of using a cause and effect model wherein a plurality of primitive cause and effect relations between primary and secondary events are represented by a system of simultaneous Boolean equations, the method comprising:

a) selecting one or more secondary events as a goal,

b) solving least a subset of one or more Boolean equations to state the secondary events in terms of primary events,

c) providing the status of existence of one or more secondary events.

5. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 4, the method further comprising providing via a graphic user interface:

a) a solution to at least a subset of one or more Boolean equations to state the secondary events in terms of primary events.

6. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 4, the method further comprising providing via a graphic user interface:

a) a solution to at least a subset of one or more Boolean equations to state the secondary events in terms of primary events that do not have a detrimental effect on one or more of the goals.

7. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 4, the method further comprising providing via a graphic user interface:

a) a solution to at least a subset of one or more Boolean equations to state the secondary events in terms of primary events that may have detrimental results in associated with one or more of the goals.

8. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 4, the method further comprising

a) providing via a graphic user interface one or more Boolean equations to state the detrimental results associated with each of the goals.

9. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 4, the method further comprising providing the status of at least one secondary event.

20. A method according to claim 4 wherein one or more of the primary events represents a drug or medication treatment protocol and one or more of the secondary events represents a patient symptom or outcome of treatment.

21. A method according to claim 4 wherein one or more of the primary events represents a drug or medication treatment protocol and one or more of the secondary events represents an organ or tissue response.

22. A method according to claim 20 wherein at least one of the primary events has a cost associated with the treatment protocol and the method further provides output to user of the cost associated with each of the treatments.

23. A method according to claim 20 wherein at least one of the secondary events has a cost associated with the patient symptom or outcome of treatment and the method further provides output to user of the cost associated with each of the treatments.

24. A method according to claim 20 wherein at least one of the patient symptoms or outcomes of treatment has an associated probability of occurrence.

25. A method according to claim 4 wherein one or more of the primary events represents a drug or medication treatment protocol and one or more of the secondary events represents a patient symptom or outcome of treatment and at least one of the patient symptoms or outcomes of treatment has an associated probability of occurrence, and at least one of the primary events has a cost associated with the treatment protocol and the method further comprises computing the value of a treatment based on the probability of each outcome or symptom and the product of the associated cost.

26. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 4 wherein said method is implemented by providing a computer readable medium having computer executable instructions.

27. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 4, the method further comprising:

a) solving said system of Boolean equations to represent all effects/events contained in said system as functions of a subset of predetermined primary causes to aid a user in diagnosing the primary causes of certain effects.

28. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 27, wherein:

a) at least one subset of primary causes are set by the user to be true, and

b) the method further comprising determining all effects and events that are consequents of said subset of primary causes.

39. A method of using a cause and effect model according to claim 4, the method further comprising the steps of:

a) receiving from a first computer system one or more instruction that modify at least one of the simultaneous Boolean equations associated with the memory system of second computer system,

b) solving via the second computer system at least a subset of one or more Boolean equations to state the secondary events in terms of primary events.

10. A computer-readable medium having stored thereon a data structure comprising:

a) a first data field containing data representing events,

b) A second data field containing data representing terms,

c) A third data field containing data representing causes,

d) A first sub-data field of the first data field containing pointers to the first of a sequential subset of sub-data fields of the second data field,

e) A first sub-data field of the second data field containing pointers to the first of a sequential subset of sub-data fields of the third data field corresponding to a term, which in turn points to the first of a sequential subset of sub-data fields corresponding to the term,

f) A last pointer added to the end of the first sub-data field of the second data field that points to one position past the end of the first sub-data field of the third data field,

g) A last pointer added to the end of the first sub-data field of the first data field that points to the last pointer that was added to the end of the first sub-data field of the second data field,

h) a second sub-data field of the first data field containing data representing various information about the events such as but not limited to whether the events are primary, secondary, intermediate or observable,

i) a third sub-data field of the first data field representing the relationship between each event and one or more of the other events,

j) a third sub-data field of the first data field for characterizing the reordering of the events by the partitioning process,

11. A computer-readable medium having stored thereon a data structure according to claim 10 further comprising another sub-data field for charactering one or more of the secondary events by a status selected from the group consisting of non-detrimental and detrimental.

12. A computer-readable medium having stored thereon a data structure according to claim 10, further comprising another sub-data field for charactering one or more of the secondary events by a characteristic of the event for use in a numerical calculation.

13. A set of application program interfaces embodied on a computer readable medium for execution on a computer in conjunction with an application program that develops a cause and effect model, the interfaces comprising:

a) a first interface that receives one or more primary events;

b) a second interface that the prompts for the characterization of each primary as either a controllable or assumption;

c) a third interface that receives secondary events;

d) a fourth interface that prompts for the characterization of the causal relationship of each primary event to any other secondary event;

e) a fifth interface that prompts for the characterization of the causal relationship of each secondary event to any other secondary event,

f) a sixth interface that receives at least one instruction characterizing one or more secondary events as a goal.

14. A set of application program interfaces embodied on a computer readable medium according to claim 13, further comprising another interface that:

a) prompts for the characterization of each secondary event as observable or determinable.

15. A set of application program interfaces according to claim 13, further comprising another interface that prompts for the characterization of each secondary event as detrimental or not detrimental.

16. A set of application program interfaces according to claim 13, further comprising another interface that prompts for the characterization of each secondary event by a characteristic of the event for use in a numerical calculation.

17. A set of application program interfaces according to claim 15, further comprising another interface that prompts for the characterization of each secondary event by a warning notice of a detrimental character.

18. A set of application program interfaces according to claim 13, further comprising another interface that prompts for the characterization of a probability function associated with each causal relationship prompted for in the fifth interface.

19. A set of application program interfaces according to claim 13, further comprising another interface that prompts for the characterization of a probability function associated with each primary event prompted for in the first interface.

29. A computer readable medium having stored thereon software in the form of computer executable instructions, the instructions comprising:

a) a cause and effect model comprising a system of a plurality of simultaneous Boolean equations representing a plurality of primitive cause and effect relations between primary events and secondary events,

b) means for selecting a combinations of primary causes,

c) means to determine the consequent effects of a specified combination of primary causes on all secondary events.

30. A computer readable medium having stored thereon software in the form of computer executable instructions according to 29, wherein the means to determine the consequent effects of all primary causes comprises;

a) means for tracing all the cause and effect paths through said cause and effect model between the said primary causes and at least a selected subset of consequent effects.

31. A set of application program interfaces embodied on a computer readable medium for execution on a computer in conjunction with an application program that develops a cause and effect model, the interfaces comprising

a) a representation of the model using an outline to show:

i) a first level to display Effects,

ii) second level below the first level to display Terms,

iii) a third a level below the second level to display Causes.

32. A set of application program interfaces embodied on a computer readable medium for execution on a computer in conjunction with an application program that develops a cause and effect model, the interfaces comprising:

a) means for inputting primitive cause and effect relations represented by a plurality of Boolean equations each composed of Boolean and'"'"'s and or'"'"'s to create a proposed cause and effect model.

33. A set of application program interfaces according to claim 32, the interfaces further comprising:

a) means of inputting a subset of primary causes set to true/exist to determine all effects consequent to said subset of primary causes.

34. A set of application program interfaces according to claim 32, the interfaces further comprising:

a) means of selecting from a plurality of alternative sets of primary causes of an event only those sets of primary causes that have sufficient value to justify any undesired consequences.

35. A set of application program interfaces according to claim 32, the interfaces further comprising:

a) means to input new primitive cause and effect relations or modify previously specified primitive cause and effect relations.

36. Software fixed on computer readable medium to provide computer executable instructions, the software comprising:

a) means to develop cause and effect hypotheses,

b) means to determine the effects/consequences of these hypotheses,

c) means to compare the fit of the effects/consequences to reality,

d) means to trace the mechanism that produces consequences that do not fit reality,

e) means to change the hypotheses.

37. Software fixed on computer readable medium to provide computer executable instructions, the software comprising:

a) means to develop cause and effect hypotheses for determining the likelihood of a target event as a plurality of terms representing causal relationships between primary and secondary events,

b) means to assign probabilities to each term relating the satisfaction of that term to the existence of a target event,

c) means to assign probabilities to each of the primary events set to exist so the probability of the existence of each event can be computed.