System & method of identifying trendsetters

• US 20040249700A1
• Filed: 06/07/2004
• Published: 12/09/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 06/05/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Xylon LLC (Intellectual Ventures LLC)
• Original Assignee: Hayley Logistics LLC (Intellectual Ventures LLC)
• Inventors: Gross, John N.
• Granted Patent: US 7,890,363 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation

Abstract

A system and method for determining and identifying trendsetters within a member population, such as an online community. The trendsetters can then be used for a number of useful purposes, such as predicting future product/service trends, evaluating advertising techniques, identifying collectible items in an electronic auction, influencing search engines and recommender systems, etc. In a similar fashion, the counterparts to trendsetters, namely, trend rejecters and trend laggards can also be identified and compiled.

Claims

1. A method of identifying trendsetters for items available to members of an online community, the method comprising the steps of:

(a) identifying adoptions of a first item made by members of the online community;

(b) ranking said adoptions of said first item to identify and provide trendsetter ratings to members who are early adopters of said item;

(c) repeating steps (a) and (b) for a plurality of second items;

wherein early adopters of said first item can also be early adopters of one or more of said plurality of second items;

(d) generating an ordered list of trendsetter members based on the results of step (c) and said trendsetter ratings for said first item and said plurality of second items.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein said trendsetter rating is scaled in accordance with an adoption rank achieved by a member.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein said list of trendsetter members is published online for viewing by other members of the online community.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein said list of trendsetter members is used to identify members entitled to incentives and/or rewards from an operator of a website for the online community.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein members of the online community can elect to subscribe to activities associated with selected trendsetter members, so that later adoptions by said selected trendsetter members are communicated to such members.

6. The method of claim 1, further including a step:

(e);

identifying members who are trend predictors from said trendsetter members.

7. The method of claim 6, further including a step (f):

measuring a prevalence rate among the trend predictors for a newly introduced item.

8. The method of claim 7, further including a step:

(g) measuring a change in prevalence rate among the trendsetters for a newly introduced item.

9. The method of claim 7 further including a step (g):

generating a popularity prediction rating for the newly introduced item.

10. The method of claim 1, further including a step:

(e) generating a recommendation automatically to a member of the online community for an item by examining items that are prevalent among said trendsetter members.

11. The method of claim 1, further including a step:

(e) providing a set of profiles for said trendsetter members to an e-commerce vendor and/or advertiser.

12. The method of claim 1, further including a step:

(e) monitoring online viewing, query and related interaction behavior exhibited by members of said trendsetters.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein said first item and said plurality of second items are all popular items within the online community

14. The method of claim 1, further including a step:

(e) providing said list of trendsetter members to a third party website for use in connection with predicting demand by a second separate online community.

15. The method of claim 1, further including a step:

(e) generating said list of trendsetter members based on an analysis combining said online community with a second separate online community.

16. The method of claim 1, wherein the item is a product, a service, or content.

17. The method of claim 1, wherein the item is a security

18. The method of claim 1, wherein members who have not adopted sufficient items, or have adopted an excessive amount of items are eliminated from consideration as trendsetters.

19. The method of claim 1, wherein said list of trendsetter members is generated for a category of items.

20. The method of claim 1, wherein said list of trendsetter members is generated for all items available to the online community.

21. A method of identifying trend predictors within an online community, the method comprising the steps of:

(a) identifying adoptions of a first item made by members of the online community;

(b) ranking said adoptions of said first item to identify and provide a trendsetter rating to members were early adopters of said item;

(c) repeating steps (a) and (b) for a plurality of second items;

wherein early adopters of said first item can also be early adopters of one or more of said plurality of second items;

(d) generating a list of trend predictor members based on the results of step (c), said trendsetter members being those members who score highest overall for a trendsetter rating across the entire online community for said first item and said plurality of second items.

22. The method of claim 21, wherein said trend predictor members are used to generate a prediction for a popularity of a newly introduced item.

23. The method of claim 21, wherein said trend predictor members are derived from examining the first K members who in aggregate first adopted all of a set of M separate popular items.

24. The method of claim 22, wherein said prediction is based on measuring a prevalence rate for said newly introduced item at a first time after introduction of such item.

25. The method of claim 24, wherein said prediction is further based studying a change in said prevalence rate at a second time after said first time.

26. The method of claim 21, further including a step:

(e);

generating online advertising tailored to said trend predictor members.

27. The method of claim 21, further including a step:

(e) generating one or more proxy accounts based on said trend predictor members, and observing a behavior of one or more online websites towards said one or more proxy accounts.

28. A method of electronically identifying trendsetters within a subscriber population, the method comprising the steps of:

(a) identifying a behavior and/or action which is relatively prevalent within the subscriber population;

(b) identifying early adopters within the subscriber population of said behavior and/or action by monitoring their activities during an electronic data collection session;

(c) repeating steps (a) and (b) to compile a list of overall early adopters within the subscriber population for a plurality of behaviors and/or actions.

29. The method of claim 28, wherein said early adopters are subscribers to content programming service.

30. The method of claim 28, wherein said early adopters are subscribers of a communications service provider.

31. The method of claim 28, wherein said early adopters are purchasers of a software product.

32. The method of claim 28, wherein said early adopters are purchasers of a media product, such as a book, a movie, and/or a song.

33. The method of claim 28, wherein said early adopters are bidders in an electronic auction.

34. The method of claim 28, wherein said early adopters are purchasers of one or more securities traded in a public market.

35. The method of claim 28, wherein said early adopters are consumers of content presented at an online content service provider.

36. The method of claim 28, wherein said early adopters are online participants in an electronic auction.

37. A system for identifying trendsetters within an online community for items available to members of the online community, the system comprising:

(a) a first software module which is adapted for;

i. identifying adoptions of a first item made by members of the online community;

ii. ranking said adoptions of said first item to identify and provide trendsetter ratings to members who are early adopters of said item;

iii. repeating steps (a) and (b) for a plurality of second items;

iv. generating an ordered list of trendsetter members based on the results of step (c) and said trendsetter ratings for said first item and said plurality of second items;

wherein early adopters of said first item can also be early adopters of one or more of said plurality of second items.