Service-driven network planning method

• US 20050010468A1
• Filed: 07/10/2003
• Published: 01/13/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 07/10/2003
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Alcatel SA (Nokia Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Alcatel SA (Nokia Corporation)
• Inventors: Power, Gerard
• Application Number:
  US10/616,851
• Publication Number:
  US 20050010468A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/147 for predicting network behaviour
• CPC Class Codes: H04W 16/18 Network planning tools
• CPC Class Codes: H04W 16/22 Traffic simulation tools or models

Abstract

A method for forecasting future telecommunications network growth so as to maximize carrier profitability. The method being a service-driven network planning method for more accurately forecasting the future equipment needs of telecommunications carriers. A plurality of different service forecasts are utilized to create a network model. These forecasts are translated into bandwidth flows and modeled as they traverse the network. An amalgamation of these flows is translated into equipment needs and existing equipment is subtracted from the needs to result in a long-term equipment needs forecast. Financial metrics that model the carrier business plan are also employed to generate a forecasted profit and loss statement. With such a statement, long-term strategic issues that will impact carrier performance and profitability can be identified.

Claims

1. A method for network planning, comprising the steps of:

estimating demand for a plurality of services to be provided by a network over a period of time;

translating said demand for said plurality of services into required bandwidth flows to determine network elements that may be used in said network over said period of time to provide said plurality of services; and

forecasting network growth over said period of time based upon said determination of network elements that may be used and current network resources; and

forecasting financial metrics.

2. A method as in claim 1, wherein said translating step comprises:

setting a utilization threshold per network element;

estimating bandwidth flows for each of said plurality of services;

determining said network elements that may be used based upon said estimated bandwidth flows and said utilization threshold; and

generating a network model comprising said network elements that may be used.

3. A method as in claim 1, wherein said forecasting financial metrics step comprises the steps of:

forecasting operating expenses over said period of time based upon said demand for said plurality of services and said determination of network elements that may be used; and

forecasting capital expenditures over said period of time based upon said determination of network elements that may be used.

4. A method as in claim 3, wherein said forecasting financial metrics step further comprises forecasting revenue based upon said demand for said plurality of services.

5. A method as in claim 4, wherein said forecasting financial metrics step further comprises depreciating said capital expenditures forecast to generate a capital expense depreciation forecast.

6. A method as in claim 5, wherein said forecasting financial metrics step further comprises forecasting an operating income based upon said operating expenses forecast, said capital expenditures forecast, and said capital expense depreciation forecast.

7. A method as in claim 6, wherein said forecasting financial metrics step further comprises forecasting a net income based upon said operating income forecast and other expenses.

8. A method as in claim 7, further comprising a step of determining a net change in network elements based upon said capital expenditures forecast, said capital expense depreciation forecast and said net income forecast.

9. A method as in claim 7, wherein said forecasting financial metrics step further comprises generating a forecasted profit and loss statement.

10. A method as in claim 9, wherein said forecasted profit and loss statement comprises a cash flow analysis.

11. A method as in claim 1, wherein said method is substantially automated.

12. A method for forecasting profitability of a network carrier utilizing at least one network model having a plurality of network elements comprising the steps of:

estimating demand for a plurality of services to be provided by a network over a period of time;

estimating bandwidth flows for each of said plurality of services;

determining a network model comprising a plurality of network elements based upon said estimated bandwidth flows and a utilization threshold per network element;

forecasting network growth over said period of time based upon said network model and current network resources;

generating a forecasted profit and loss statement based upon said demand for said plurality of services and said network model.

13. A method as in claim 12, further comprising the step of determining if said network growth is financially feasible based upon said forecasted profit and loss statement.

14. A method as in claim 12, wherein said generating a forecasted profit and loss statement step comprises the steps of:

forecasting operating expenses over said period of time based upon said demand for said plurality of services and said network model; and

forecasting capital expenditures over said period of time based upon said network model.

15. A method as in claim 14, wherein said generating a forecasted profit and loss statement step further comprises the steps of:

forecasting revenue;

forecasting operating income based upon said revenue forecast, said operating expenses forecast and said capital expenditures forecast;

forecasting other expenses; and

generating a forecast net income.

16. A method as in claim 12, wherein said method is substantially automated.