Electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system, electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method, and program for executing support method, and program for executing operation management support method on computer

• US 20050015283A1
• Filed: 06/10/2004
• Published: 01/20/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 06/11/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Inventors: Iino, Yutaka, Matsumoto, Shigeru
• Granted Patent: US 8,069,077 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/4
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/004 Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/008 involving trading of energy or energy transmission rights
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 40/70 Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/10 Energy trading, including energy flowing from end-user application to grid
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/14 Marketing, i.e. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards

Abstract

An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system includes a condition-input unit inputting costs of electric power generation in electric power generating facilities, probability distribution of predicted values of the demand for electric power, and probability distribution of predicted values of the transaction price of power on the market. An optimal-operational-condition calculating unit calculates the performance of power generation of the power generating facilities based upon the costs of power generation, the probability distribution of predicted values of the demand for power and the probability distribution of predicted values of the transaction price of power on the market, input from the condition-input unit so as to obtain the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the maximum performance of power generation A risk estimating unit calculates and estimates a risk value of damage of the optimal operation under the optimal operational conditions. A calculation-result display unit displays the optimal operational conditions and the risk-estimation results.

Claims

1. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system comprising:

a condition-input unit for inputting costs of electric power generation in electric power generating facilities, probability distribution of predicted values of the demand for electric power, and probability distribution of predicted values of the transaction price of electric power on the market;

optimal-operational-condition calculating means for calculating the performance of electric power generation of said electric power generating facilities based upon said costs of electric power generation of electric power generating facilities, said probability distribution of predicted values of the demand for electric power, and said probability distribution of predicted values of the transaction price of electric power on the market, input from said condition-input unit so as to obtain the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the maximum performance of electric power generation;

risk estimating means for calculating and estimating a risk value of damage of the optimal operation under said optimal operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating means; and

a calculation-result display unit for displaying said optimal operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating means and said risk-estimation results estimated by said risk estimating means.

2. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein said risk estimating means includes at least one of:

market-risk calculating means for calculating market risk value corresponding to damage due to fluctuation of the demand for electric power and the transaction price of electric power on the market;

liquidity-risk calculating means for calculating liquidity-risk value corresponding to damage from unexpected trading on the electric power market due to deregulation of electric power on the market;

credit-risk calculating means for calculating credit-risk value corresponding to damage due to shortage of information with regard to the demand of consumers; and

operational-risk calculating means for calculating operational-risk value corresponding to damage due to unexpected trouble of said electric power generating facilities and unexpected trouble of operation thereof.

3. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein said risk estimating means includes at least one of:

market-risk calculating means for calculating market risk value corresponding to damage due to fluctuation of the demand for electric power and the transaction price of electric power on the market;

liquidity-risk calculating means for calculating liquidity-risk value corresponding to damage from unexpected trading on the electric power market due to deregulation of electric power on the market;

credit-risk calculating means for calculating credit-risk value corresponding to damage due to shortage of information with regard to the demand of consumers;

operational-risk calculating means for calculating operational-risk value corresponding to damage due to unexpected trouble of said electric power generating facilities and unexpected trouble of operation thereof; and

total-risk calculating means for calculating total-risk value based upon said market-risk value, said liquidity risk value, said credit-risk value, and said operational-risk value thus calculated by said various risk calculating means.

4. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein said calculation-result display unit includes at least one of functions of:

a function of displaying said risk-estimation calculated by said risk estimating means in the form of probability distribution of the electric power generating performance;

a function of displaying the lower limit of reliability as the worst-case risk-estimation results; and

a function of displaying a sigma value which represents irregularities in the performance of electric power generation.

5. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, further comprising optimal-tradeoff calculating means for calculating optimal tradeoff operational conditions based upon determining parameters with regard to tradeoff between said optimal performance of electric power generation and said risk values, which are input of said determining parameters from said condition-input unit.

6. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, further comprising reserve-electric-power optimizing means for calculating the optimal partial-load operational conditions or optimal over-rated-load operational conditions for operating said electric power generating facilities while maintaining the reserve electric power production capability, according to input of reserve-electric-power parameters from said condition-input unit with regard to reserve electric power of said electric power generating facilities.

7. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system comprising:

analyzing means for calculating operation plan creating basic information based upon received information with regard to lifespan calculating expressions, present electric-power market information, and operation-history information with regard to electric power generation; and

operation plan creating means for calculating and outputting operational conditions of electric power generating facilities as created operation planning based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing means,

said analyzing means comprising

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating unit for calculating lifespan consumption costs of said electric power generating facilities,

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating unit for estimating the market price of reserve electric power, and

a reserve-electric-power supply-probability estimating unit for estimating probability of supply of reserve electric power.

8. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 7, further comprising:

electric-power-generation-amount-adjustment-instruction input means for inputting and receiving electric-power-generation-amount adjustment instruction values for said electric power generating facilities; and

electric-power-generation-amount control signal transmitting means for transmitting electric-power-generation-amount control signals to said electric power generating facilities for controlling the amount of electric power generation according to said instruction values received by said electric-power-generation-amount-adjustment-instruction input means.

9. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 7, wherein said analyzing means includes unexpected-shutdown-risk-costs receiving means for receiving information with regard to insurance fees paid by the user to the insurance service company, as unexpected-shutdown-risk costs.

10. An electric-power-generating-facilities operations management support system according to claim 7, further including insurance-service providing means for providing an insurance service as means for hedging risk of unexpected shutdown of said electric power generating facilities.

11. An electric-power-generating-facilities operations management support system according to claim 7, wherein said operation plan creating means includes:

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon information with regard to lifespan-consumption costs, the market price of reserve electric power, and probability of supplying reserve electric power, analyzed by said analyzing means;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating unit for calculating a combination of the planning-based electric-power-generation amount and the reserve-electric-power-generation amount as operational conditions, which exhibits the optimal profit from electric generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit; and

an optimal-operation-condition output unit for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating unit,

said electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit including

planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating means for calculating the relation between the planning-based electric power generation amount which is a part of the amount of the electric power generation amount and the estimated market price of reserve electric power,

reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating means for calculating the relation between the reserve electric power generation amount which is a part of the amount of the electric power generation amount and the estimated market price of reserve electric power,

reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating means for calculating the relation between the reserve electric power generation amount and the reserve-electric-power supply probability,

electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-revenues property calculating means for calculating the relation between the revenues from electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation,

electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating means for calculating the relation between the costs of electric power generation including operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation, and

planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected-profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating means for calculating the relation between the expected profit from electric power generation, planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power generation amount, based upon said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-revenues property and said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property,

wherein said operational-risk costs includes lifespan-consumption costs.

12. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 11, wherein said operational-risk costs include unexpected-shutdown-risk costs.

13. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method comprising:

an analyzing step for calculating operation plan creating basic information; and

an operation plan creating step,

said analyzing step including;

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating step for calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating step for estimating the market price of reserve electric power; and

a reserve-electric-power-supply-probability estimating step for estimating probability of supplying reserve electric power, and

said operation plan creating step including;

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating step for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating step for calculating the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the optimal profit from electric power generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step; and

an optimal-operational-condition notifying step for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating step so as to notify the user of said information.

14. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 13, further comprising an electric-power-generation-amount control signal transmitting step for transmitting instruction values to each of said electric power generating facilities for adjusting the electric power generation amount of each for con trolling the amount of electric power generation.

15. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 13, wherein said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step includes:

a planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the planning-based electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power generation amount and the reserve-electric-power supply probability;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property calculating step for calculating the relation between the revenues from electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said various properties calculated by said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating step for calculating the relation between costs of electric power generation including lifespan-consumption costs as operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation; and

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating step for calculating the relation between expected profit from electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property.

16. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 13, further comprising:

an insurance-estimation-request receiving step for receiving a request for estimation of insurance;

an unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step for estimating risk of unexpected shutdown of facilities based upon past operation-history information with regard to electric power generating facilities which are to be insured, provided according to said estimation request for insurance;

an insurance-fees-estimation-results output step for estimating insurance fees based upon said unexpected-shutdown risk estimated by said unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step, and outputting said estimated results;

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the planning-based electric power generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power generation amount and the reserve-electric-power supply probability;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property calculating step for calculating the relation between the revenues from electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said various properties calculated by said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating step for calculating the relation between;

costs of electric power generation including lifespan-consumption cost and unexpected-shutdown-risk costs as operational-risk cost; and

of the amount of electric power generation;

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating step for calculating the relation between expected profit from electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property;

an insurance-contract-application receiving step for receiving application of insurance contract with said insurance fees estimated by said insurance-fees-estimation-results output step;

a preliminary insurance-fees settlement processing for executing preliminary settlement for said insurance fees according to application of insurance contract;

a post-operation unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step for estimating unexpected-shutdown risk following said preliminary settlement, based upon operation-history information with regard to said insured electric power generating facilities after insurance contract;

a post-operation insurance-fees calculating step for calculating insurance fees again based upon unexpected-shutdown risk estimated by said post-operation unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step; and

a post-operation settlement step for calculating the difference between said insurance fees thus calculated again by said post-operation insurance-fees calculating step and said preliminary insurance fees, so as to execute post-operation settlement.

17. A program for executing operation-planning notifying processing on a computer, comprising:

an analyzing step for calculating operation plan creating basic information; and

an operation plan creating step,

said analyzing step including;

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating step for calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating step for estimating the market price of reserve electric power; and

a reserve-electric-power-supply-probability estimating step for estimating probability of supplying reserve electric power; and

said operation plan creating step including;

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating step for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating step for calculating the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the optimal profit from electric power generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step; and

an optimal-operational-condition notifying step for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating step so as to notify the user of said information.

18. A program for executing operational-condition notifying processing on a computer, comprising:

an analyzing step for calculating operation plan creating basic information;

an operation plan creating step; and

an electric-power-generation-amount control signal transmitting step for transmitting instruction values to each of said electric power generating facilities for adjusting the electric power generation amount of each,

said analyzing step including;

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating step for calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating step for estimating the market price of reserve electric power; and

a reserve-electric-power-supply-probability estimating step for estimating probability of supplying reserve electric power; and

said operation plan creating step including;

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating step for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating step for calculating the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the optimal profit from electric power generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step; and

an optimal-operational-condition notifying step for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating step so as to notify the user of said information.

19. A program for executing operation-planning notifying processing on a computer, comprising:

an analyzing step for calculating operation plan creating basic information; and

an operation plan creating step,

said analyzing step including;

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating step for calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating step for estimating the market price of reserve electric power; and

a reserve-electric-power-supply-probability estimating step for estimating probability of supplying reserve electric power;

said operation plan creating step including;

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating step for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating step for calculating the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the optimal profit from electric power generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step; and

an optimal-operational-condition notifying step for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating step so as to notify the user of said information; and

said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step including;

a planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the planning-based electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power generation amount and the reserve-electric-power supply probability;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property calculating step for calculating the relation between the revenues from electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said various properties calculated by said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating step for calculating the relation between costs of electric power generation including lifespan-consumption costs and unexpected-shutdown-risk costs as operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation; and

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected-profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating step for calculating the relation between expected profit from electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property.

20. A program for executing insurance service processing on a computer, comprising:

an insurance-estimation-request receiving step for receiving a request for estimation of insurance;

an unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step for estimating risk of unexpected shutdown of facilities based upon past operation-history information with regard to electric power generating facilities which are to be insured, provided according to said estimation request for insurance;

an insurance-fees-estimation-results output step for estimating insurance fees based upon said unexpected-shutdown risk estimated by said unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step, and outputting said estimated results;

an insurance-contract-application receiving step for receiving application of insurance contract with said insurance fees estimated by said insurance-fees-estimation-results output step;

a preliminary insurance-fees settlement processing for executing preliminary settlement for said insurance fees according to application of insurance contract;

a post-operation unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step for estimating unexpected-shutdown risk following said preliminary settlement based upon operation-history information with regard to said insured electric power generating facilities after insurance contract;

a post-operation insurance-fees calculating step for calculating insurance fees again based upon unexpected-shutdown risk estimated by said post-operation unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step; and

a post-operation settlement step for calculating the difference between said insurance fees thus calculated again by said post-operation insurance-fees calculating step and said preliminary insurance fees, so as to execute post-operation settlement.