Method and system for estimating price elasticity of product demand

• US 20050149381A1
• Filed: 12/10/2004
• Published: 07/07/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 12/12/2003
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Delta Air Lines Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Delta Air Lines Incorporated
• Inventors: Frank, Katia Cristina, Ravulapati, Kiran Kumar, Thirumalai, Ramanujan
• Application Number:
  US11/009,945
• Publication Number:
  US 20050149381A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/06 Buying, selling or leasing transactions

Abstract

Estimating price elasticity of product demand assists an understanding of total demand for a product and a forecast of how the level of demand for that product will change based on a change in the price of the product. A multi-level hierarchical regression methodology can be used to forecast product demand, and thereby calculate price elasticity. The methodology accepts historical product sales, product prices, and revenue management controls of a company and predicts the estimated demand at the product level. This methodology can also accept the historical product sales, product prices for the company and its competitors, revenue management controls of a company, and an estimate of the revenue management controls of its competitors to predict the estimated demand at the product level.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for determining an estimated demand for each product in an origin-destination pair comprising the steps of:

determining a product demand share for a product in a category of the origin-destination pair;

determining a category demand share for the category based on a proposed weighted average price for the category, a long-term demand share history for the category, and a short-term demand share history for the category; and

determining the estimated absolute demand for the origin-destination pair based on a proposed weighted average price for the origin-destination pair, a long-term demand history for the origin-destination pair and a short-term demand history for the origin-destination pair.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the product demand share comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a list comprising at least one product in a first category;

b. accepting an actual price, a revenue management effect, a historical demand share, and a current demand share for a first product in the first category;

c. repeating step (a)-(b) for all products in the first category

d. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients based on the actual price, the revenue management effect, the historical demand share, and the current demand share for all products in the first category;

e. accepting a proposed price for at least one product in the first category; and

f. determining the demand share for all of the products in the first category based on the proposed price, the revenue management effect, the historical demand share, and the estimated regression coefficients.

3. The method of claim 2 further comprising the step of determining the product demand share for at least one product in a second category in the origin-destination pair.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a multinomial logistical regression model.

5. The method of claim 2, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a nested logistical regression model.

6. The method of claim 2, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a regression model.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the product demand share comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a list comprising at least one product in a first category;

b. accepting an actual price, a revenue management effect, a historical demand share, and a current demand share for a first product in the first category;

c. accepting a competitor'"'"'s price and a competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect for a competitor product substantially equivalent to the first product;

d. repeating step (a)-(c) for all products in the first category;

e. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients based on the actual price, the revenue management effect, the historical demand share, and the current demand share for all products in the first category and the competitor'"'"'s price and the competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect for each competitor product substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category;

f. accepting a proposed price for at least one product in the first category; and

g. determining the demand share for all of the products in the first category based on the proposed price, the revenue management effect, the historical demand share, and the estimated regression coefficients for each product in the first category and the competitor'"'"'s price and the competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect for each competitor product substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a multinomial logistical regression model.

9. The method of claim 7, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a nested logistical regression model.

10. The method of claim 7, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a regression model.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the product demand share comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a list comprising at least one product in a first category;

b. accepting an actual price, a revenue management effect, a historical demand share, and a current demand share for a first product in the first category;

c. accepting a competitor'"'"'s price and a competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect for a competitor product substantially equivalent to the first product;

d. repeating step (a)-(c) for all products in the first category;

e. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients based on the actual price, the revenue management effect, the historical demand share, and the current demand share for all products in the first category and the competitor'"'"'s price and the competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect for each competitor product substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category;

f. accepting a competitor'"'"'s new price for at least one competitor product that is substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category; and

g. determining the demand share for all of the products in the first category based on the actual price, the revenue management effect, the historical demand share, and the estimated regression coefficients for each product in the first category and the competitor'"'"'s new price and the competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect for each competitor product substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a multinomial logistical regression model.

13. The method of claim 11, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a nested logistical regression model.

14. The method of claim 11, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a regression model.

15. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the product demand share comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a list comprising at least one product in a first category;

b. accepting an actual price, a revenue management effect, a historical demand share, and a current demand share for a first product in the first category;

c. accepting a competitor'"'"'s price and a competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect for a competitor product substantially equivalent to the first product;

d. repeating step (a)-(c) for all products in the first category

e. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients based on the actual price, the revenue management effect, the historical demand share, and the current demand share for all products in the first category and the competitor'"'"'s price and the competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect for each competitor product substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category;

f. accepting a competitor'"'"'s new revenue management effect for at least one competitor product that is substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category; and

g. determining the demand share for all of the products in the first category based on the actual price, the revenue management effect, the historical demand share, and the estimated regression coefficients for each product in the first category and the competitor'"'"'s price and the competitor'"'"'s new revenue management effect for each competitor product substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a multinomial logistical regression model.

17. The method of claim 15, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a nested logistical regression model.

18. The method of claim 15, wherein the estimated regression coefficients and the demand share for all products in the first category is determined by solving a regression model.

19. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the category demand share for a first category of the origin-destination pair further comprises the steps of:

a. determining the current weighted average price for the first category based on a current price and a current demand share for each product in the first category;

b. accepting the long-term demand share history and the short-term demand share history for the first category;

c. repeating steps (a)-(b) for each category in the origin-destination pair;

d. accepting the current demand share for each category in the origin-destination pair;

e. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients for each category based on the weighted average price, the long-term demand share history, and the short-term demand share history for each category in the origin-destination pair;

f. determining the proposed weighted average price for each category based on a proposed price and a proposed demand share for each product in each category of the origin-destination pair; and

g. determining the demand share for each category of the origin-destination pair based on the proposed weighted average price, the long-term demand share history, and the short-term demand share history for each category.

20. The method of claim 19, wherein the demand share for each category in the origin-destination pair is determined using a regression model.

21. The method of claim 19, wherein determining the weighted average price for the first category further comprises the steps of:

a. accepting an actual price and a current demand share for a first product in the first category of the origin-destination pair;

b. determining a multiplied product of the actual price and the current demand share for the first product;

c. repeating steps (a)-(b) for each product in the first category; and

d. determining the weighted average price for the first category by generating a sum of the multiplied products determined in step (b) and (c).

22. The method of claim 19, wherein determining the proposed weighted average price for the first category further comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a proposed price and the product demand share for a first product in the first category of the origin-destination pair;

b. determining a multiplied product of the proposed price and the product demand share for the first product;

c. repeating steps (a)-(b) for each product in the first category; and

d. determining the proposed weighted average price for the first category by generating a sum of the multiplied products determined in step (b) and (c).

23. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the estimated absolute demand for the origin-destination pair further comprises the steps of:

determining a current average price for the origin-destination pair based on at least one current weighted average price and at least one current demand share for all products in each category of the origin-destination pair;

accepting the long-term demand history, short-term demand history, and a current absolute demand for the origin-destination pair;

determining a set of estimated regression coefficients based on the current average price, long-term demand history, short-term demand history, and the current absolute demand for the origin-destination pair;

determining a proposed average price for the origin-destination pair based on the category demand share for each category in the origin-destination pair and at least one proposed price for at least one product in at least one category of the origin-destination pair; and

determining the absolute demand for an origin-destination pair, based on the proposed average price for the origin-destination pair and the long-term and short-term demand history for the origin-destination pair.

24. The method of claim 23, wherein the absolute demand for the origin-destination pair is determined using a simple regression model.

25. The method of claim 23, wherein the absolute demand for the origin-destination pair is a booking day absolute demand for the origin-destination pair.

26. The method of claim 23, wherein determining the current average price for the origin-destination pair further comprises:

a. accepting the current weighted average price for a first category;

b. accepting a current demand share for the first category;

c. determining a multiplied product of the current weighted average price for the first category and the current demand share for the first category;

d. repeating steps (a)-(c) for each category of the origin-destination pair; and

e. determining the proposed weighted average price for the origin-destination pair by taking a sum of the multiplied products determined for each category of the origin-destination pair.

27. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of generating a category forecast based on the absolute demand for the origin-destination pair and the category demand share.

28. The method of claim 27, wherein generating the category forecast comprises the step of taking the product of the category demand share for the category and the estimated absolute demand for the origin-destination pair.

29. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of generating a product demand forecast based on the category forecast and the product demand share.

30. The method of claim 29 wherein generating the product demand forecast comprises the step of taking the product of the category forecast and the product demand share.

31. A computer-readable medium having computer-executable instructions for performing the steps recited in claim 1.

32. A computer-implemented method for determining an estimated absolute demand (D) for an origin-destination pair (OD) comprising the steps of:

determining a product demand share (v) for a product (j) in a category (C) of the origin-destination pair;

determining a category demand share (E) for the category (C) based on a proposed weighted average price (a) for the category, a long-term demand share history (L) for the category, and a short-term demand share history (s) for the category using the formula

E=α

_C+β

_Ca_C+γ

_CL_C+η

_Cs_C+ε

_C Cε

OD; and

determining the estimated absolute demand (D) for the origin-destination pair based on a proposed weighted average price for the origin-destination pair (k), a long-term demand history (f) for the origin-destination pair and a short-term demand history (g) for the origin-destination pair using the formula

D=β

₀+β

₁k+β

₂f+β

₃g+ε

.

33. The method of claim 32, wherein determining the product demand share (v) comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a list comprising at least one product (j) in a first category (C);

b. accepting an actual price (p), a revenue management effect (r), a historical demand share (h), and a current demand share (h′

) for a first product in the first category;

c. repeating step (a)-(b) for all products in the first category

d. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients based on the actual price (p), the revenue management effect (r), the historical demand share (h), and the current demand share (h′

) for all products in the first category using the formula

h′

_j=α

_j+β

_jp_j+γ

_jr_j+η

_jh_j for jε

C;

e. accepting a proposed price (N) for at least one product in the first category; and

f. determining the demand share (v) for all of the products in the first category based on the proposed price (N), the revenue management effect (r), the historical demand share (h), and the estimated regression coefficients using the formula

v_j=α

_j+β

_jN_j+γ

_jr_j+η

_jh_j for jε

C

34. The method of claim 33 further comprising the step of determining the product demand share (v) for at least one product (j) in a second category (C) in the origin-destination pair.

35. The method of claim 32, wherein the step of determining the product demand share (v) comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a list comprising at least one product (j) in a first category (C);

b. accepting an actual price (p), a revenue management effect (r), a historical demand share (h), and a current demand share (h′

) for a first product in the first category;

c. accepting a competitor'"'"'s price (b) and a competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect (d) for a competitor product substantially equivalent to the first product;

d. repeating step (a)-(c) for all products in the first category

e. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients based on the actual price (p), the revenue management effect (r), the historical demand share (h), and the current demand share (h′

) for all products in the first category and the competitor'"'"'s price (b) and the competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect (d) for each competitor product substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category using the formula

h′

_j=α

_j+β

_jp_j+γ

_jr_j+η

_jh_j+λ

_jb_j+ω

_jd_j for jε

C;

f. accepting a proposed price (N) for at least one product in the first category; and

g. determining the demand share (v) for all of the products in the first category based on the proposed price (N), the revenue management effect (r), the historical demand share (h), and the estimated regression coefficients for each product in the first category and the competitor'"'"'s price (b) and the competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect (d) for each competitor product substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category using the formula

v_j=α

_j+β

_jN_j+γ

_jr_j+η

_jh_j+λ

_jb_j+ω

_jd_j for jε

C.

36. The method of claim 32, wherein the step of determining the product demand share (v) comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a list comprising at least one product (j) in a first category (C);

b. accepting an actual price (p), a revenue management effect (r), a historical demand share (h), and a current demand share (h′

) for a first product in the first category;

c. accepting a competitor'"'"'s price (b) and a competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect (d) for a competitor product substantially equivalent to the first product;

d. repeating step (a)-(c) for all products (j) in the first category (C)

e. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients using the formula

h′

_j=α

_j+β

_jp_j+γ

_jr_j+η

_jh_j+λ

_jb_j+ω

_jd_j for jε

C;

f. accepting a competitor'"'"'s new price (b′

) for at least one competitor product that is substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category; and

g. determining the demand share (v) for all of the products in the first category using the formula

v_j=α

_j+β

_jp<sub>j+γ

j</sub>r_j+η

_jh_j+λ

_jb′

_j+ω

_jd_j for jε

C.

37. The method of claim 32, wherein the step of determining the product demand share (v) comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a list comprising at least one product ( ) in a first category (C);

b. accepting an actual price (p), a revenue management effect (r), a historical demand share (h), and a current demand share (h′

) for a first product in the first category;

c. accepting a competitor'"'"'s price (b) and a competitor'"'"'s revenue management effect (d) for a competitor product substantially equivalent to the first product;

d. repeating step (a)-(c) for all products in the first category;

e. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients using the formula

h′

_j=α

_j+β

_jp_j+γ

_jr_j+η

_jh_j+λ

_jb_j+ω

_jd_j for jε

C;

f. accepting a competitor'"'"'s new revenue management effect (d′

) for at least one competitor product that is substantially equivalent to at least one product in the first category; and

g. determining the demand share (v) for all of the products in the first category using the formula

v_j=α

_j+β

_jp_j+γ

_jr_j+η

_jh_j+λ

_jb′

_j+ω

_jd′

_j for jε

C.

38. The method of claim 32, wherein determining the category demand share (E) for a first category (C) of the origin-destination pair further comprises the steps of:

a. determining the current weighted average price (a′

) for the first category based on a current price (p) and a current demand share (h′

) for each product in the first category;

b. accepting the long-term demand share history (L) and the short-term demand share history (s) for the first category;

c. repeating steps (a)-(b) for each category in the origin-destination pair;

d. accepting the current demand share (E′

) for each category in the origin-destination pair;

e. determining a set of estimated regression coefficients for each category using the formula

E′

=α

_C+β

_Ca′

_C+γ

_CL_C+η

_Cs_C+ε

_C for Cε

OD;

f determining the proposed weighted average price (a) for each category based on at least one proposed price (N) and a current demand share (E′

) for each product in each category of the origin-destination pair; and

g. determining the demand share (E) for each category of the origin-destination using the formula

E=α

_C+β

_Ca_C+γ

_CL_C+η

_Cs_C+ε

_C for Cε

OD.

39. The method of claim 38, wherein determining the current weighted average price (a′

) for the first category (C) further comprises the steps of;

a. accepting the current price (p) and the current demand share (h) for a first product (j) in the first category of the origin-destination pair;

b. determining the current weighted average price (a′

) using the formula

a′

=p_jh_j for jε

C; and

c. repeating steps (a)-(b) for each product in the first category.

40. The method of claim 38, wherein determining the proposed weighted average price (a) for the first category (C) further comprises the steps of:

a. accepting a proposed price (N) and the product demand share (v) for a first product in the first category of the origin-destination pair;

b. determining the proposed weighted average price (a) for the first category (C) using the formula

a=N_jv_j for jε

C; and

c. repeating steps (a)-(b) for each product (j) in the first category (C).

41. The method of claim 32, wherein determining the estimated absolute demand (D) for the origin-destination pair comprises the steps of:

determining a current average price (k′

) for the origin-destination pair based on at least one current weighted average price (a′

) and at least one current demand share (E′

) for all products in each category of the origin-destination pair;

accepting the long-term demand history (f), short-term demand history (g), and a current absolute demand (Q) for the origin-destination pair;

determining a set of estimated regression coefficients using the formula

Q=β

₀+β

₁k′

+β

₂f+β

₃g+ε

;

determining a proposed average price (k) for the origin-destination pair based on the category demand share (E) for each category in the origin-destination pair and at least one proposed price (N) for at least one product (j) in at least one category of the origin-destination pair; and

determining the absolute demand (D) for an origin-destination pair using the formula

D=β

₀+β

₁k+β

₂f+β

₃g+ε

.

42. The method of claim 41, wherein the absolute demand (D) for the origin-destination pair is a booking day absolute demand for the origin-destination pair.

43. The method of claim 41, wherein determining the current average price (k′

) for the origin-destination pair (OD) further comprises;

a. accepting the current weighted average price (a′

) for a first category (C);

b. accepting a current demand share (E′

) for the first category;

c. determining a product of the current weighted average price for the first category and the current demand share for the first category using the formula

z=E′

_Ca′

_C;

for Cε

OD;

d. repeating steps (a)-(c) for each category of the origin-destination pair; and

e. determining the proposed weighted average price for the origin-destination pair using the formula

k=Σ

E′

_Ca′

_C;

for Cε

OD.

44. The method of claim 41, wherein determining the proposed average price (k) for the origin-destination pair (OD) further comprises:

a. accepting the proposed weighted average price (a′

) for a first category (C);

b. accepting the category demand share (E) for the first category;

c. determining proposed average price (k) using the formula

k=E_Ca_C;

for Cε

OD; and

d. repeating steps (a)-(c) for each category of the origin-destination pair.

45. The method of claim 32 further comprising the step of generating a category forecast (CF) using the formula

CF=(D)×

(E).

46. The method of claim 45 further comprising the step of generating a product demand forecast based on the absolute demand for the origin-destination pair and the category forecast.

47. The method of claim 46, wherein generating a product demand (PD) forecast comprises the formula

PD=(v_j)×

(CF).

48. A computer-readable medium having computer-executable instructions for performing the steps recited in claim 32.

49. A system for estimating price elasticity of origin-destination product demand comprising:

a first information database for storing current inventory information describing products currently available to a consumer, wherein the inventory information includes long-term demand share history for an origin-destination pair, short-term demand share history for the origin-destination pair, long-term demand share history for a category of products in the origin-destination pair, short-term demand share history for the category of products in the origin-destination pair, historical demand share history for products in the origin-destination pair, a set of products for the origin-destination pair, a set of categories including one or more of the products for the origin-destination pair, and a revenue management effect for each product in the origin-destination pair;

a second information database for storing current and historical pricing patterns for the current inventory and a competitor'"'"'s current inventory;

a third information database for storing current information related to competitor products, wherein the information is retrieved from publicly available sources and the information is used to estimate the revenue management effect for a competitor'"'"'s product;

a competitive product evaluator coupled to the second information database for comparing the current inventory information to the competitor'"'"'s current inventory to determine at least one competitor product that is substantially equivalent to a product in the current inventory; and

a demand forecasting determiner coupled to the first information database, the third information database, and the competitive product evaluator for estimating a demand for a product in the category of the origin-destination pair.

50. The system of claim 49, wherein the first information database comprises a commercial airline reservation system.

51. The system of claim 49, wherein the second information database comprises a commercial product price publishing system.

52. The system of claim 49, wherein the demand forecasting determiner is further coupled to a user input workstation, wherein the workstation allows for the insertion of proposed prices for the current inventory.