Lifecycle support software tool

• US 20050171732A1
• Filed: 02/02/2004
• Published: 08/04/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 02/02/2004
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Adkins, Dudley R., Williams, Zachary C.
• Granted Patent: US 7,206,708 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/182
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/00 Administration; Management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

The invention provides a simulation process and method of utilizing it to time to better estimate when a component of a product is about to fail by tracking varying “environmental factors” related to the severity of conditions to which product is exposed over a period of time. The invention includes the steps of: (a) determining a distribution of mean times between failures or failure rate for each component of the product; (b) using statistical techniques to select a fail point for each component; (c) applying an aging factor for each component for conditions to which the product is subjected; and (d) calculating an estimated time for failure for a component using information comprising time periods the component was subjected to conditions, and aging factors relating to the conditions.

Claims

1. A method of determining when a product should have a component inspected, the method comprising:

(e) determining a distribution of mean times between failures for each component of the product;

(f) using statistical techniques to select a fail point for each component from the distribution of mean times for the respective component;

(g) determining an aging factor for each component for conditions to which the product is subjected;

(h) calculating an estimated time for failure for a component using information comprising time periods the component was subjected to conditions, and aging factors relating to the conditions.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the aging factor is not identical for each component under the same environmental conditions.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of calculating comprises determining a product of time period for which the component was subjected to a condition, and an aging factor associated with the condition.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the step of calculating comprises summing, for a component, the product of aging factor and time, at predetermined intervals or continuously, to produce a total from the summing.

5. The method of claim 4, further comprising, periodically or continuously, comparing the total from the summing for a component with a fail point for that respective component.

6. The method of claim 5, further comprising generating an alert when the total from summing for a component equals or exceeds the randomly generated fail point for the respective component.

7. The method of claim 5, wherein the fail point is randomly generated.

8. The method of claim 3, further comprising, for each identified component, summing the product of aging factor and time under conditions for that aging factor, to determine, for each component, a total of summed products at an instant in time.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein the step of summing is periodic or continuous.

10. The method of claim 8, further comprising, for each component, comparing the total with a respective fail point for the component.

12. A method of determining a projected maintenance or life cycle of a product, the method comprising:

(a) determining an aging factor for a component of the product for each condition to which the product is subjected;

(b) calculating for the component, at predetermined intervals or continuously, a product of the time period for which the component was exposed to a condition, and an aging factor relating to the condition;

(c) summing the products of aging factors and time periods of exposure, at predetermined intervals or continuously;

(d) comparing the latest sum of products of aging and time periods of exposure with a predetermined fail point for the component; and

(e) generating an alert when the latest sum of products equals or exceeds a predetermined fail point of the component.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the aging factor varies based on whether the product is in use or at rest, and varies based on environmental conditions.

14. The method of claim 13, wherein the fail point of the component is determined statistically, based on a distribution of mean times between failure for the component.

15. The method of claim 12, wherein the product has multiple components.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein the steps of calculating, summing and comparing are carried out for multiple components separately.

17. The method of claim 15, wherein the aging factor is not identical for all components under each condition to which the product is exposed.

18. The method of claim 17, wherein the generating of an alert is when the first of multiple components has a sum determined by the step of summing that equals or exceeds the fail point of that particular component.

19. A method of determining a projected maintenance or life cycle of a multiplicity of substantially identical products, each product comprising at least one common component, the method comprising:

(a) determining an aging factor for the at least one common component of each of the multiplicity of products for each condition to which the product is subjected;

(b) calculating, for the component, at predetermined intervals or continuously, a product of the time period for which the component was exposed to a condition, and an aging factor relating to the condition;

(c) summing the products of aging factors and time periods of exposure, at predetermined intervals or continuously;

(d) comparing, for the component, the latest sum of products of aging and time periods of exposure, with a predetermined fail point for the component; and

(e) generating an alert when the latest sum of products equals or exceeds a predetermined fail point of the component.

11. The method of claim 19, further comprising generating an alert when the total for any one of the components equals or exceeds the fail point of that one component.

20. The method of claim 19, wherein the fail point is determined from a distribution of mean failure times for the common component, using statistical techniques.