Method and apparatus for optimizing the results produced by a prediction model

• US 20050195966A1
• Filed: 11/02/2004
• Published: 09/08/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 03/03/2004
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Oracle International Corporation (Oracle Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Sigma Dynamics, Inc. (Oracle Corporation)
• Inventors: Stahl, Earl, Adar, Michel, Bonnet, Nicolas M.
• Application Number:
  US10/980,440
• Publication Number:
  US 20050195966A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 379/266.08
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising

Abstract

Disclosed are methods and apparatus for optimizing results produced by a predictive model in order to determine which action to perform out of a plurality of actions. In an operation (a), a plurality of goal metrics are provided for a plurality of possible actions based on a plurality of input conditions. One or more of the goal metrics are produced by one or more predictive models. In an operation (b), the plurality of goal metrics are normalized. In an operation (c), for each possible action a total of each of the normalized goal metrics multiplied by a corresponding predetermined weight is determined. In an operation (d), the totals determined for the plurality of possible actions are compared to thereby determine a highest total. In an operation (e), an action selected from the plurality of possible actions is performed, where the selected action has the highest total. In one implementation, operations (a) through (e) are repeated for a plurality of sets of input conditions, and normalizing the goal metrics for a current set of input conditions is accomplished by assigning a point value for each goal metric of each action, wherein the point value corresponds to the percentage of previously determined corresponding goal metric values that are less valuable than the current goal metric value

Claims

1. A method of optimizing results produced by a predictive model in order to determine which action to perform out of a plurality of actions, the method comprising:

(a) for a plurality of possible actions, providing a plurality of goal metrics based on a plurality of input conditions, wherein one or more of the goal metrics are produced by one or more predictive models;

(b) normalizing the plurality of goal metrics;

(c) for each possible action, determining a total of each of the normalized goal metrics multiplied by a corresponding predetermined weight;

(d) comparing the totals determined for the plurality of possible actions to thereby determine a highest total; and

(e) performing an action selected from the plurality of possible actions, wherein the selected action has the highest total.

2. A method as recited in claim 1, wherein the plurality of possible actions are a plurality of offers which can be presented to a potential customer.

3. A method as recited in claim 2, wherein the offers can be presented in the form of one or more web pages to a customer who is currently accessing a web server.

4. A method as recited in claim 2, wherein the offers can be presented in the form of an automated Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) option to a customer who is currently accessing a telephone call center.

5. A method as recited in claim 2, wherein the goal metrics include a minimum cost metric, an increase in revenue metric, an increase in customer satisfaction metric, and a likelihood of acceptance of offer metric.

6. A method as recited in claim 5, wherein the goal metrics further include any metric selected from a group consisting of a reduction of customer returns metric, an increase in awareness metric, a compliance metric for measuring the compliance level'"'"'with a marketing person'"'"'s objective, a service level agreement metric measuring the compliance to an agreed upon service metric, a measure of the number of products owned by the customer, and a measure of compliance with prescribed number of presentations of specific offers.

7. A method as recited in claim 1, further comprising repeating operations (a) through (e) for a plurality of sets of input conditions, wherein normalizing the goal metrics for a current set of input conditions comprises assigning a point value for each goal metric of each action, wherein the point value corresponds to the percentage of previously determined corresponding goal metric values that are less valuable than the current goal metric value.

8. A method as recited in claim 7, wherein the sets of input conditions corresponding to a plurality of customer profiles of a plurality of customers and the possible actions are a plurality of offers which were presented to the customers.

9. A method as recited in claim 7, wherein at least two of the goal metrics have different units.

10. A method as recited in claim 7, wherein at least two of the goal metrics correspond to competing goals.

11. A computer system operable to optimize results produced by a predictive model in order to determine which action to perform out of a plurality of actions, the computer system comprising:

one or more processors;

one or more memory, wherein at least one of the processors and memory are adapted for;

(a) for a plurality of possible actions, providing a plurality of goal metrics based on a plurality of input conditions, wherein one or more of the goal metrics are produced by one or more predictive models;

(b) normalizing the plurality of goal metrics;

(c) for each possible action, determining a total of each of the normalized goal metrics multiplied by a corresponding predetermined weight;

(d) comparing the totals determined for the plurality of possible actions to thereby determine a highest total; and

(e) performing an action selected from the plurality of possible actions, wherein the selected action has the highest total.

12. A computer system as recited in claim 11, wherein the plurality of possible actions are a plurality of offers which can be presented to a potential customer.

13. A computer system as recited in claim 12, wherein the offers can be presented in the form of one or more web pages to a customer who is currently accessing a web server.

14. A computer system as recited in claim 12, wherein the offers can be presented in the form of an automated Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) option to a customer who is currently accessing a telephone call center.

15. A computer system as recited in claim 12, wherein the goal metrics include a minimum cost metric, an increase in revenue metric, an increase in customer satisfaction metric, and a likelihood of acceptance of offer metric.

16. A computer system as recited in claim 15, wherein the goal metrics further include any metric selected from a group consisting of a reduction of customer returns metric, an increase in awareness metric, a compliance metric for measuring the compliance level with a marketing person'"'"'s objective, a service level agreement metric measuring the compliance to an agreed upon service metric, a measure of the number of products owned by the customer, and a measure of compliance with prescribed number of presentations of specific offers.

17. A computer system as recited in claim 11, wherein the at least one of the processors and memory are further adapted for repeating operations (a) through (e) for a plurality of sets of input conditions, wherein normalizing the goal metrics for a current set of input conditions comprises assigning a point value for each goal metric of each action, wherein the point value corresponds to the percentage of previously determined corresponding goal metric values that are less valuable than the current goal metric value.

18. A computer system as recited in claim 17, wherein the sets of input conditions corresponding to a plurality of customer profiles of a plurality of customers and the possible actions are a plurality of offers which were presented to the customers.

19. A computer system as recited in claim 17, wherein at least two of the goal metrics have different units.

20. A computer system as recited in claim 17, wherein at least two of the goal metrics correspond to competing goals.

21. A computer program product for optimizing results produced by a predictive model in order to determine which action to perform out of a plurality of actions, the computer program product comprising:

at least one computer readable medium;

computer program instructions stored within the at least one computer readable product configured for;

(a) for a plurality of possible actions, providing a plurality of goal metrics based on a plurality of input conditions, wherein one or more of the goal metrics are produced by one or more predictive models;

(b) normalizing the plurality of goal metrics;

(c) for each possible action, determining a total of each of the normalized goal metrics multiplied by a corresponding predetermined weight;

(d) comparing the totals determined for the plurality of possible actions to thereby determine a highest total; and

(e) performing an action selected from the plurality of possible actions, wherein the selected action has the highest total.

22. A computer program product as recited in claim 21, wherein the plurality of possible actions are a plurality of offers which can be presented to a potential customer.

23. A computer program product as recited in claim 22, wherein the offers can be presented in the form of one or more web pages to a customer who is currently accessing a web server.

24. A computer program product as recited in claim 22, wherein the offers can be presented in the form of an automated Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) option to a customer who is currently accessing a telephone call center.

25. A computer program product as recited in claim 22, wherein the goal metrics include a minimum cost metric, an increase in revenue metric, an increase in customer satisfaction metric, and a likelihood of acceptance of offer metric.

26. A computer program product as recited in claim 25, wherein the goal metrics further include any metric selected from a group consisting of a reduction of customer returns metric, an increase in awareness metric, a compliance metric for measuring the compliance level with a marketing person'"'"'s objective, a service level agreement metric measuring the compliance to an agreed upon service metric, a measure of the number of products owned by the customer, and a measure of compliance with prescribed number of presentations of specific offers.

27. A computer program product as recited in claim 21, the computer program instructions stored within the at least one computer readable product further configured for repeating operations (a) through (e) for a plurality of sets of input conditions, wherein normalizing the goal metrics for a current set of input conditions comprises assigning a point value for each goal metric of each action, wherein the point value corresponds to the percentage of previously determined corresponding goal metric values that are less valuable than the current goal metric value.

28. A computer program product as recited in claim 27, wherein the sets of input conditions corresponding to a plurality of customer profiles of a plurality of customers and the possible actions are a plurality of offers which were presented to the customers.

29. A computer program product as recited in claim 27, wherein at least two of the goal metrics have different units.

30. A computer program product as recited in claim 27, wherein at least two of lo the goal metrics correspond to competing goals.

31. An apparatus for optimizing results produced by a predictive model in order to determine which action to perform out of a plurality of actions, comprising:

means for providing a plurality of goal metrics for a plurality of possible actions based on a plurality of input conditions, wherein one or more of the goal metrics are produced by one or more predictive models;

means for normalizing the plurality of goal metrics;

means for determining a total of each of the normalized goal metrics multiplied by a corresponding predetermined weight for each possible action;

means for comparing the totals determined for the plurality of possible actions to thereby determine a highest total; and

means for performing an action selected from the plurality of possible actions, wherein the selected action has the highest total.