Method and system for forecasting events and results based on geospatial modeling
First Claim
1. A geospatial event forecasting engine, comprising:
- a spatial database storing geospatial boundary information for one or more areas of interest, and further storing geospatial characteristic information pertaining to at least one variable of interest in the form of one or more variable layers associated with said one or more areas of interest;
a boundary component for establishing a geospatial boundary pertaining to a first area of interest and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
a function component for identifying a functional measurement of a cell element for each cell to said at least one variable of interest for each of said one or more layers associated with said first area of interest, and for indexing said functional measurement for each cell;
a signature derivation component for receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events, said signature derivation component further identifying and indexing an event functional measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest for each of said layers, and deriving a signature pattern for said event type; and
an event likelihood determinant component for determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells, whereby a forecast of an event-type likelihood can be displayed on at least a portion of a display of said geospatial boundary based on said determined level of signature match.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A forecasting engine and method assists in rapidly and accurately forecasting occurrences of identifiable events and/or results based on signature and/or pattern matching. The present invention derives signature for event-types based on a comparison of actual event data with pre-established representational surfaces. The surfaces represent functional measurements and analysis associated with elements of the geospatial boundary being considered. The present invention provides highly refined modeling processes to assist in quickly focusing on the proper measurement type and/or variable type, and detailing analysis around the most relevant factors. In this way, the present invention allows for more rapid and more accurate assessment determinations. In one aspect, the present invention provides a decision support system for assisting in the determination of potentially successful commercial locations. In another embodiment, the present invention provides a centralized portal capable of assessing multiple problems simultaneously.
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Citations
59 Claims
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1. A geospatial event forecasting engine, comprising:
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a spatial database storing geospatial boundary information for one or more areas of interest, and further storing geospatial characteristic information pertaining to at least one variable of interest in the form of one or more variable layers associated with said one or more areas of interest;
a boundary component for establishing a geospatial boundary pertaining to a first area of interest and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
a function component for identifying a functional measurement of a cell element for each cell to said at least one variable of interest for each of said one or more layers associated with said first area of interest, and for indexing said functional measurement for each cell;
a signature derivation component for receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events, said signature derivation component further identifying and indexing an event functional measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest for each of said layers, and deriving a signature pattern for said event type; and
an event likelihood determinant component for determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells, whereby a forecast of an event-type likelihood can be displayed on at least a portion of a display of said geospatial boundary based on said determined level of signature match. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27)
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28. A method of forecasting geospatial events, comprising the steps of:
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storing geospatial boundary information for one or more areas of interest;
storing geospatial characteristic information pertaining to at least one variable of interest in the form of one or more variable layers associated with said one or more areas of interest;
establishing a geospatial boundary pertaining to a first area of interest and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
identifying a functional measurement of a cell element for each cell to said at least one variable of interest for each of said one or more layers associated with said first area of interest, and indexing said functional measurement for each cell;
receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events;
identifying and indexing an event functional measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest for each of said layers, and deriving a signature pattern for said event type; and
determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells, whereby a forecast of an event-type likelihood can be displayed on at least a portion of a display of said geospatial boundary based on said determined level of signature match. - View Dependent Claims (29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50)
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51. A method for determining an event type based on an event signature, comprising the steps of:
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establishing a geospatial boundary and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
establishing at least one layer imposed upon the grid, the layer being indicative of geospatial characteristics of at least one variable of interest;
identifying a functional measurement of a cell element for each cell to the variable of interest, and for indexing said functional measurement for each cell;
receiving geospatial information pertaining to one or more past events of a given event type, including location information for said one or more past events;
identifying an event functional measurement to the at least one variable of interest for each of said events;
determining a likelihood associating said event type'"'"'s relative proximity to the variable of interest;
establishing a signature for said event type based on said determined likelihood;
receiving an outside event signature associated with said boundary;
determining a level of signature match between said established signature and said outside event signature.
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52. A decision support system, comprising:
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means for establishing a group of options associated with a system decision;
means for associating each option of said group of options with an area of interest (AOI);
means for collecting training data associated with each of said options;
means for establishing a result forecast for each option; and
means for scoring said result forecasts so as to determine which option in said group of options is optimal. - View Dependent Claims (53, 54, 55)
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56. A decision support system, comprising:
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means for establishing at least one geospatial area of interest (AOI) comprising a two-dimensional, cell-based, geospatial boundary;
means for imposing at least one layer of geospatial information on said AOI, said geospatial information including at least one variable of interest;
means for determining the proximity of each cell in said boundary to each of said at least one variable of interest;
means for determining a location of a past meaningful result;
means for determining the proximity of the past meaningful result to said at least one variable of interest;
means for establishing a signature associated with said result; and
means for determining a closest match with said result signature among said cells.
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57. A system for forecasting an event, comprising:
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an interface for receiving a problem definition;
a forecasting component having a plurality of areas of interest, a plurality of variable layers, and a plurality of training data elements representing at least one discrete event;
a selection interface for receiving a selection of at least one area of interest and at least one variable layer, a training data interface for receiving a selection of training data;
an assessment component for applying said training data to said selected area of interest and said selected variable layer to determine a forecast for one or more locations within said area of interest where a future event related to said at least one discrete event may occur. - View Dependent Claims (58, 59)
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Specification