Method and system for forecasting events and threats based on geospatial modeling
First Claim
1. A geospatial event forecasting engine, comprising:
- a boundary component for establishing a geospatial boundary and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
a layer component for establishing at least one layer imposed upon the grid, the layer being indicative of geospatial characteristics of at least one variable of interest;
a proximity component for identifying a proximity measurement of a cell element for each cell to the variable of interest, and for indexing said proximity measurement for each cell;
a signature derivation component for receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events, said signature derivation component further identifying and indexing a proximity measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest, and deriving a signature pattern for said event type; and
an event likelihood determinant component for determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells through comparison with said proximity measurement.
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Abstract
A forecasting engine and method assists in forecasting occurrences of identifiable events and/or threats based on signature and/or pattern matching. The present invention derives signature for event-types based on a comparison of actual event data with pre-established representational surfaces. The surfaces represent proximity measurements and analysis associated with elements of the geospatial boundary being considered. The measurements and analysis can consider a vast array of potential variables of interest in order to provide a comprehensive, robust forecasting engine. In one embodiment, the present invention considers past data associated with several event-types in order to arrive at an assessment.
33 Citations
27 Claims
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1. A geospatial event forecasting engine, comprising:
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a boundary component for establishing a geospatial boundary and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
a layer component for establishing at least one layer imposed upon the grid, the layer being indicative of geospatial characteristics of at least one variable of interest;
a proximity component for identifying a proximity measurement of a cell element for each cell to the variable of interest, and for indexing said proximity measurement for each cell;
a signature derivation component for receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events, said signature derivation component further identifying and indexing a proximity measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest, and deriving a signature pattern for said event type; and
an event likelihood determinant component for determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells through comparison with said proximity measurement. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13)
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14. A method for forecasting events using geospatial information, comprising the steps of:
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establishing a geospatial boundary and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
establishing at least one layer imposed upon the grid, the layer being indicative of geospatial characteristics of at least one variable of interest;
identifying a proximity measurement of a cell element for each cell to the variable of interest, and for indexing said proximity measurement for each cell;
receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events;
identifying and indexing a proximity measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest;
deriving a signature pattern for said event type; and
determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells through comparison with said proximity measurement. - View Dependent Claims (15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25)
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26. A system for forecasting threats, comprising:
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a geospatial database storing boundary and layer information for a plurality of areas of interest, said layer information being indicative of geospatial characteristics of a plurality of variables of interest;
a proximity engine for identifying and indexing proximity measurements to each of said variables of interest for a plurality of cells within each area of interest;
a signature derivation component for receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events, and identifying and indexing a proximity measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest, and deriving a signature pattern for said event type; and
a threat forecasting component for determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells through comparison with said proximity measurements, said threat forecasting component being capable of rendering a two-dimensional display of an area of interest associated with said plurality of cells, said display including a representation of said level of signature match.
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27. A geospatial event forecasting engine, comprising:
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a boundary component for establishing a geospatial boundary and a grid containing a plurality of cells within said boundary;
a layer component for establishing at least one layer imposed upon the grid, the layer being indicative of geospatial characteristics of at least one variable of interest;
a proximity component for identifying a proximity measurement of a cell element for each cell to the variable of interest, and for indexing said proximity measurement for each cell;
a signature derivation component for receiving geospatial information related to one or more past events of at least one event type, including location information for said one or more past events, said signature derivation component further identifying and indexing a proximity measurement from the location information for each of said one or more events to the at least one variable of interest, and deriving a signature pattern for said event type; and
an event likelihood determinant component for determining a level of signature match between said derived signature pattern and at least one cell of said plurality of cells through comparison with said proximity measurement; and
a signature transfer component for applying said established signature from said first boundary to said indexed proximity measurements of said second boundary and determining a level of signature match between said established signature and at least one cell of said plurality of cells in said second boundary.
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Specification