Method and system for optimization of controls

• US 20050256945A1
• Filed: 12/24/2003
• Published: 11/17/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 12/24/2003
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Cesura, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Cesura, Inc.
• Inventors: Martin, Michael A., Smith, Timothy L., Muthegere, Jaisimha, Tulloh, Robert F.
• Application Number:
  US10/746,806
• Publication Number:
  US 20050256945A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 709/223
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/147 for predicting network behaviour

Abstract

A system and method can use statistical modeling of the way that an entire application environment is running. The output from the statistical models can be used by an optimization engine to provide an optimal or near optimal configuration and operation of the application environment for nearly any workloads and conditions. After constructing the statistical models, the operation can be entirely automated and not require human intervention. In another embodiment, some human intervention may be used or desired, particularly for non-reoccurring events (e.g., significant portion of a network for the application environment shut down due to a natural disaster). The system and method can be used to respond faster (closer to real time) and potentially to implement better control than would otherwise be possible with manual control. The system and method is particularly well suited for application environments that are in a nearly constant state of flux.

Claims

1. A method of managing an application environment on a network comprising:

using predictive modeling based at least in part on state information originating from the network to generate an output;

determining a value using an optimization function based at least in part on the output from the predictive modeling; and

determining if a criterion is met based at least in part on the value.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising automatically changing a control from an original control setting to a new control setting after using the predictive modeling.

3. The method of claim 2, further comprising applying a filter to the new control setting after determining if the criterion is met.

4. The method of claim 2, further comprising forecasting a behavior of the application environment using the new control setting.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein using predictive modeling comprises:

making an estate prediction using at least a portion of the state information; and

making an appState prediction using at least a portion of the state information and the estate prediction.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the estate prediction is a function of an exogenous variable and an original control setting.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the appstate prediction is a function of the exogenous variable and the estate prediction.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising iterating (1) using predictive modeling to generate at least one additional output and (2) determining at least one additional value using the optimization function based at least in part the at least one additional output, wherein iterating continues, until one or more of the at least one additional value meets a criterion.

9. An apparatus for carrying out the method of claim 1.

10. A method of managing an application environment on a network comprising:

determining whether state information matches an entry within an ontology, wherein the state information comprises an original control setting for a control;

changing the control from the original control setting to a new control setting after determining whether the state information matches the entry within the ontology.

11. The method of claim 10, further comprising:

using predictive modeling based at least in part on the original control setting; and

determining a value using an optimization function based at least in part on an output from the predictive modeling.

12. The method of claim 11, further comprising determining if a criterion is met based at least in part on the value.

13. The method of claim 11, wherein using predictive modeling comprises:

making an estate prediction using at least a portion of the state information; and

making an appState prediction using at least a portion of the state information and the estate prediction.

14. The method of claim 11, further comprising iterating (1) using predictive modeling to generate at least one additional output and (2) determining at least one additional value using the optimization function based at least in part the at least one additional output, wherein iterating continues until one or more of the at least one additional value meets a criterion.

15. An apparatus operable to carryout the method of claim 10.

16. A data processing system readable medium having code for managing an application environment on a network, wherein the code is embodied within the data processing system readable medium, the code comprising:

an instruction for using predictive modeling based at least in part on state information originating from the network to generate an output;

an instruction for determining a value using an optimization function based at least in part on the output from the predictive modeling; and

an instruction for determining if a criterion is met based at least in part on the value.

17. The data processing system readable medium of claim 16, wherein the code further comprises an instruction for automatically changing a control from an original control setting to a new control setting after the instruction for using the predictive modeling.

18. The data processing system readable medium of claim 17, wherein the code further comprises an instruction for applying a filter to the new control setting, wherein the instruction for applying the filter is executed after the instruction for determining if the criterion is met.

19. The data processing system readable medium of claim 17, wherein the code further comprises an instruction for forecasting a behavior of the application environment using the new control setting.

20. The data processing system readable medium of claim 16, wherein the instruction for using predictive modeling comprises:

an instruction for making an estate prediction using at least a portion of the state information; and

an instruction for making an appstate prediction using at least a portion of the state information and the estate prediction.

21. The data processing system readable medium of claim 20, wherein the estate prediction is a function of an exogenous variable and an original control setting.

22. The data processing system readable medium of claim 21, wherein the appState prediction is a function of the exogenous variable and the estate prediction.

23. The data processing system readable medium of claim 16, wherein the code further comprises an instruction for iterating (1) the instruction for using predictive modeling to generate at least one additional output and (2) the instruction for determining at least one additional value using the optimization function based at least in part the at least one additional output, wherein the instruction for iterating continues until one or more of the at least one additional value meets a criterion.

24. A data processing system readable medium having code for managing an application environment on a network, wherein the code is embodied within the data processing system readable medium, the code comprising:

an instruction for determining whether state information matches an entry within an ontology, wherein the state information comprises a current control setting for a control;

an instruction for changing information for the control from the current control setting to an original control setting after executing the instruction for determining whether the state information matches the entry within the ontology.

25. The data processing system readable medium of claim 24, wherein the code further comprises:

an instruction for using predictive modeling based at least in part on the original control setting; and

an instruction for determining a value using an optimization function based at least in part on an output from the predictive modeling.

26. The data processing system readable medium of claim 25, wherein the code further comprises an instruction for determining if a criterion is met based at least in part on the value.

27. The data processing system readable medium of claim 25, wherein the instruction for using predictive modeling comprises:

an instruction for making an estate prediction using at least a portion of the state information; and

an instruction for making an appState prediction using at least a portion of the state information and the estate prediction.

28. The data processing system readable medium of claim 25, wherein the code further comprises an instruction for iterating (1) the instruction for using predictive modeling to generate at least one additional output and (2) the instruction for determining at least one additional value using the optimization function based at least in part the at least one additional output, wherein the instruction for iterating continues until one or more of the at least one additional value meets a criterion.

29. A system for managing an application environment on the network comprising an optimization engine that is configured to use state information originating from the network.

30. The system of claim 29, further comprising a rules decision engine.

31. The system of claim 30, wherein the rules decision engine comprises a neural network for forecasting state information based in least in part on control settings.

32. The system of claim 29, further comprising a first neural network for making an estate prediction coupled to the optimization engine.

33. The system of claim 32, further comprising a second neural network for making an appState prediction, wherein the second neural network is coupled to the first neural network and the optimization engine.