Distributed generation modeling system and method

• US 20050283346A1
• Filed: 05/24/2004
• Published: 12/22/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 05/24/2004
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Basic Resources, Inc (Sempra)
• Original Assignee: Basic Resources, Inc (Sempra)
• Inventors: Elkins, Harold Edward II, Sanderford, Freeman Murray II
• Application Number:
  US10/853,732
• Publication Number:
  US 20050283346A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 703/4
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 2203/20 Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 60/00 Enabling technologies; Technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 40/20 Information technology specific aspects, e.g. CAD, simulation, modelling, system security

Abstract

An exemplary system for analyzing and modeling electric generators for a customer is provided. The system may include a database component and processor. The database operable to maintain data identifying a generator, a generator fuel cost projection, operating parameters, a customer load profile, and an electricity cost projection for a period of time. The processor operable to calculate a projected generation cost, and to compare the projected generation cost with the electricity cost projections to provide electricity to the customer through an electric grid. A method for modeling distributed generation is also provided. The method includes determining a projected customer electric cost to provide electricity to a customer from the electric grid and determining a projected generation cost for a generator to generate electricity for the customer for the period of time to meet the customer'"'"'s projected load or electric load profile.

Claims

1. A method for modeling distributed generation for a customer, comprising:

obtaining a projected electric consumption profile for the customer for a period of time that is divided into a plurality of time periods;

obtaining a projected electricity cost that projects the cost of electricity purchased from an electric provider for the period of time, the projected electricity cost may be associated with the plurality of time periods;

obtaining operating parameters for one or more generators, the operating parameters including an electrical generator capacity and heat rate information;

obtaining a projected fuel price for one or more fuels that may be used by the one or more generators for the period of time;

determining a projected generator operating cost to generate electricity using a generator from the one or more generators based on the projected electric consumption profile for the plurality of time periods of the period of time, the projected generator operating cost determined using at least the operating parameters associated with the generator and the projected fuel price of the fuel that may be used by the generator;

determining a projected dispatch of the generator by comparing, for the plurality of time periods, the projected generator operating cost of the generator to the projected electricity cost of electricity purchased from an electric provider for the plurality of time periods of the period of time; and

determining a revised projected electric consumption profile for the customer by subtracting the projected dispatch of the generator for the plurality of time periods from the projected electric consumption profile.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining a revised projected electricity cost that projects the cost of electricity purchased from the electric provider based at least in part on the revised projected electric consumption profile for the customer.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining a revised projected electricity cost that projects the cost of electricity purchased from a third party electric provider based at least in part on the revised projected electric consumption profile for the customer.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

determining a second projected generator operating cost to generate electricity using a second generator selected from the one or more generators based on the projected electric consumption profile for the plurality of time periods of the period of time, the second projected generator operating cost determined using operating parameters associated with the second generator and a projected fuel price of the fuel that may be used by the second generator; and

determining a projected dispatch of the second generator by comparing, for the plurality of time periods, the second projected generator operating cost of the second generator to the projected electricity cost of electricity purchased from an electric provider for the plurality of time periods of the period of time.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

determining projected available excess capacity of the generator by determining when the projected dispatch of the generator is less than the electrical generator capacity of the generator for the plurality of time periods of the period of time;

determining a projected operating cost to generate the projected available excess capacity of the generator for the plurality of time periods; and

offering to sell the projected available excess capacity to a third party at a price greater than the projected operating cost to generate the projected available excess capacity.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the offering to sell the projected available excess capacity to the third party includes offering to sell the projected available excess capacity at a price greater than both the projected operating cost to generate the projected available excess capacity and a charge to transport the power to the third party.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the period of time is an estimated life of the generator.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the period of time is greater than or equal to at least ten years.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the period of time is greater than or equal to five years.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein a time period of the plurality of time periods is an hour.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the period of time is greater than or equal to five years, and wherein the determining a projected dispatch of the generator includes comparing the projected generator operating cost of the generator to the projected electricity cost of electricity purchased from an electric provider for each hour for five or more years in the future.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein a time period of the plurality of time periods is greater than one hour.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein a time period of the plurality of time periods is equal to or less than one hour.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining a projected electric consumption profile for the customer includes using historical consumption information.

15. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining a projected electric consumption profile for the customer includes using a seasonal load profile.

16. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining a projected electric consumption profile for the customer includes using a load profile based on a customer type load profile.

17. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining a projected electric consumption profile comprises:

providing a plurality of business load profiles based on an electric consumption of a type of business;

identifying the type of business of the customer; and

selecting one of the plurality of business load profiles based on the type of business of the customer.

18. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining a projected electricity cost that projects the cost of electricity purchased from an electric provider for the plurality of time periods further includes providing a high projected electricity cost and a low projected electricity cost.

19. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining a projected fuel price further includes providing a high projected fuel price and a low projected fuel price.

20. The method of claim 1, wherein the projected fuel for one of the one or more fuels is natural gas.

21. The method of claim 1, wherein the projected fuel for one of the one or more fuels is oil.

22. The method of claim 1, wherein the projected fuel for one of the one or more fuels is diesel.

23. The method of claim 1, wherein the operating parameters for one or more generators further includes a generator startup cost.

24. The method of claim 1, wherein the operating parameters for one or more generators further includes a generator maintenance cost.

25. The method of claim 1, wherein the operating parameters for one or more generators further includes a generator acquisition cost to purchase a generator.

26. The method of claim 1, wherein the generator acquisition cost includes an installation cost.

27. The method of claim 1, wherein the operating parameters for one or more generators further includes a generator fuel type.

28. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

determining a total projected savings for the period of time by comparing a total projected cost for purchasing all electricity to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer from the electric provider for the period of time to a total projected cost for both dispatching the generator and purchasing electricity to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer for the period of time.

29. The method of claim 28, further comprising:

determining if the total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the generator.

30. The method of claim 28, further comprising:

determining when the total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the generator during the period of time.

31. The method of claim 30, wherein the acquisition costs include the capital cost, financing cost, and installation cost of the generator.

32. The method of claim 4, further comprising:

determining a first total projected savings for the period of time by comparing a total projected cost for purchasing all electricity to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer from the electric provider for the period of time to a total projected cost for both dispatching the first generator and purchasing remaining electricity to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer for the period of time; and

determining a second total projected savings for the period of time by comparing a total projected cost for purchasing all electricity to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer from the electric provider for the period of time to a total projected cost for both dispatching the second generator and purchasing remaining electricity to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer for the period of time.

33. The method of claim 32, further comprising:

determining if the first total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the first generator; and

determining if the second total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the second generator.

34. The method of claim 32, further comprising:

determining when the first total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the first generator during the period of time; and

determining when the second total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the second generator during the period of time.

35. A method for modeling distributed generation for a customer, comprising:

obtaining a projected electric consumption profile for the customer for a period of time that is divided into a plurality of time periods;

obtaining a projected electricity cost that projects the cost of electricity purchased from an electric provider for the period of time, the projected electricity cost may be associated with the plurality of time periods;

obtaining operating parameters for a first generator, the operating parameters including an electrical generator capacity and heat rate information;

obtaining a projected fuel price for one or more fuels that may be used by the first generator for the period of time;

determining a first projected generator operating cost to generate electricity using the first generator based on the projected electric consumption profile for the plurality of time periods of the period of time, the first projected generator operating cost determined using at least the operating parameters associated with the first generator and the projected fuel price of the fuel that may be used by the first generator;

determining a projected dispatch of the first generator by comparing, for the plurality of time periods, the projected first generator operating cost of the first generator to the projected electricity cost of electricity purchased from an electric provider for the plurality of time periods of the period of time;

obtaining operating parameters for a second generator, the operating parameters including an electrical generator capacity and heat rate information;

obtaining a projected fuel price for one or more fuels that may be used by the second generator for the period of time;

determining a second projected generator operating cost to generate electricity using the second generator based on the projected electric consumption profile for the plurality of time periods of the period of time, the second projected generator operating cost determined using at least the operating parameters associated with the second generator and the projected fuel price of the fuel that may be used by the second generator; and

determining a projected dispatch of the second generator by comparing, for the plurality of time periods, the projected second generator operating cost of the second generator to the projected electricity cost of electricity purchased from an electric provider for the plurality of time periods of the period of time.

36. The method of claim 35, further comprising:

determining projected available excess capacity of the first generator by determining when the projected dispatch of the first generator is less than the electrical generator capacity of the generator for the plurality of time periods of the period of time;

determining a projected operating cost to generate the projected available excess capacity of the first generator for the plurality of time periods; and

offering to sell the projected available excess capacity of the first generator to a third party at a price greater than the projected operating cost to generate the projected available excess capacity of the first generator.

37. The method of claim 35, further comprising:

determining a first total projected savings for the period of time by comparing a total projected cost for purchasing all electricity to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer from the electric provider for the period of time to a total projected cost for both dispatching the first generator and purchasing remaining electricity needed to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer for the period of time; and

determining a second total projected savings for the period of time by comparing a total projected cost for purchasing all electricity to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer from the electric provider for the period of time to a total projected cost for both dispatching the second generator and purchasing remaining electricity needed to meet the electric consumption profile of the customer for the period of time.

38. The method of claim 37, further comprising:

determining if the first total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the first generator; and

determining if the second total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the second generator.

39. The method of claim 37, further comprising:

determining when the first total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the first generator during the period of time; and

determining when the second total projected savings exceeds the acquisition costs of the second generator during the period of time.

40. A system for modeling distributed generation for a customer, the system comprising:

a database component operable to maintain data identifying a generator, operating parameters of the generator, a generator fuel cost projection for a period of time that is divided into a plurality of time periods, a customer load profile for the period of time, and an electricity cost projection to meet the customer load profile for the period of time through electricity provided through an electric grid; and

a processor operable to calculate a projected generation cost to generate electricity for the plurality of time periods of the period of time utilizing the generator to meet the customer load profile based on the generator fuel cost projection and the operating parameters of the generator, the processor further operable to compare the projected generation cost for the plurality of time periods with the electricity cost projection to meet the customer load profile for the corresponding plurality of time periods.

41. The system of claim 40, wherein the generator fuel cost projection is based upon daily market fuel projections for fuel of a type employed by the generator, and wherein the electricity cost projection is based upon daily market electricity projections for electricity provided through the electric grid.

42. The system of claim 40, wherein the generator fuel cost projection is provided as hourly market fuel projections for fuel of a type employed by the generator, and wherein the electricity cost projection is provided as hourly market electricity projections for electricity provided through the electric grid.

43. The system of claim 42, wherein the generator fuel cost projection and electricity cost projection are projected over a period of years.

44. The system of claim 43, wherein the period of years is further defined as equal to or greater than 15 years.

45. The system of claim 40, wherein the operating parameters include an electrical generator capacity and generator heat rate information.