System and method for event-based forecasting

• US 20050283393A1
• Filed: 11/19/2004
• Published: 12/22/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 11/20/2003
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: New England 800 Co. (AnswerNet, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: New England 800 Co. (AnswerNet, Inc.)
• Inventors: McDonnell, Patrick, Russell, Daniel, Slawson, Kim, Perron, Guillaume, Stoy, John, Hamrin, Carl, White, R. Stephen, Lebel, Rene
• Application Number:
  US10/993,419
• Publication Number:
  US 20050283393A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.17
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063 Operations research, analysis or management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063118 Staff planning in a project environment
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06313 Resource planning in a project environment

Abstract

A system and related method to forecast based on events defined by event segments. The system includes a database or set of databases populated with selectable event segments characterized by known information and predictive information deemed by the user to be relevant to a particular organization for which future resource allocation predictions are desired. Rather than evaluate past data summaries alone to predict future resource allocation requirements, the system and related method input raw data that may be parsed and analyzed in any selectable combination to produce one or more forecasts to produce resource allocation information. One use of the system and related method is to calculate staffing requirements for a contact center at a selectable level of granularity.

Claims

1. A method for predicting future resource allocation requirements of an organization based on one or more events, the method comprising the steps of:

a. inputting selectable event information determined to be relevant to the organization into a resource allocation calculator;

b. calculating future resource allocation information based upon the selectable inputted event information; and

c. forwarding the calculated future resource allocation information to a resource allocation function for specifying future resource allocation for the organization.

2. The method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the future resource allocation information includes one or more recommended staffing parameters.

3. The method as claimed in claim 2 wherein the one or more recommended staffing parameters are selected from a combination of one or more of the parameters of the group consisting of number of people, number of contacts, number of days, number of hours, number of quarter-hours, work week length, hours of day, service factor desired.

4. The method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the resource allocation function is a work force management tool.

5. The method as claimed in claim 1 further comprising the step of accessing the resource allocation calculator remotely for inputting the selectable event information, calculating the future resource allocation information, or both.

6. The method as claimed in claim 5 wherein the step of accessing is performed through an internet website.

7. The method as claimed in claim 1 further comprising the step of defining one or more events to be inputted to the resource allocation calculator as selected event and event segment information.

8. The method as claimed in claim 7 further comprising the step of summarizing the event information and the calculated future resource information calculated based on the inputted selected event information into one or more tables.

9. The method as claimed in claim 8 wherein the table includes one or more of:

event parameters, event response distribution, critical event dates, event life expectancy, day of event, multiple events, day of week, period of week, event output per week, event output per day, event output per period, and summary.

10. The method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the event information includes one or more event segments, and wherein the event segments include known information, predictive information, or a combination of known information and predictive information.

11. The method as claimed in claim 10 wherein the event segments are selected from the group consisting of:

mailings, television ads, radio ads, internet ads, new product releases, new service releases, promotions, trade shows, press releases, sales events, catalogs, advertising, the number of catalogs dropped, the offers made and their duration, the published life of the catalog, whether all catalogs are dropped from one location or multiple locations, the total number of responses expressed as a percentage of catalogs dropped, the percent of responses that are likely to be orders, literature requests, problems or general inquiries, the percent of responses expected to arrive via telephone, e-mail, fax, mail or in person, and the average work time required to handle each service type via each response type.

12. The method as claimed in claim 1 further comprising the step of repeating the step of calculating resource allocation information using as event information resource allocation information from a prior resource allocation information calculation.

13. A system to aid in the allocation of resources for future activities of an organization, the system comprising:

a. means for inputting selectable event information;

b. a calculation function for calculating resource allocation information from the inputted selectable event information; and

c. a forwarding function for forwarding the calculated resource allocation information to a resource allocation function for future allocation of resources for the organization.

14. The system as claimed in claim 13 wherein the event information includes one or more event segments, and wherein the event segments include known information, predictive information, or a combination of known information and predictive information.

15. The system as claimed in claim 14 wherein the events are selected from the group consisting of:

mailings, television ads, new product releases, new service releases, promotions, trade shows, press releases, sales events, catalogs, and advertising.

16. The system as claimed in claim 13 wherein the organization is a contact center and the calculated resource allocation information includes number of people, work time periods and work time durations.

17. The system as claimed in claim 13 wherein the resource allocation function is a work force management tool.

18. The system as claimed in claim 13 configured for remotely inputting the selectable event information, remotely calculating the future resource allocation information, or both.

19. The system as claimed in claim 13 configured to summarize the event information and the calculated future resource information calculated based on the inputted selected event information into a table.

20. The system as claimed in claim 19 wherein the table includes one or more of:

event parameters, event response distribution, critical event dates, event life expectancy, day of event, multiple events, day of week, period of week, event output per week, event output per day, event output per period, and summary.

21. The system as claimed in claim 13 wherein the means for inputting the selectable event information includes a computer with an information input device and a display, and one or more information input tables visible on the display.

22. The system as claimed in claim 21 wherein the one or more information input tables are arranged into sets of information input tables, wherein the sets are arranged by event type.

24. The system as claimed in claim 21 further comprising one or more event-based forecast tables that may be viewed on the display.

25. The system as claimed in claim 13 further comprising one or more databases for retaining therein events, event segments, and forecasts.

23. The system as claimed in claim 23 wherein the event types are direct mailings, periodicals, and broadcasts.

26. A method of forecasting staffing requirements for an organization based on the occurrence of one or more events, the method comprising the steps of:

a. inputting one or more event segments related to the one or more events into a database;

b. analyzing the one or more event segments individually or in selectable combinations to produce one or more forecasts; and

c. forwarding the one or more forecasts to a staffing allocation function for specifying future resource allocation for the organization.

27. The method as claimed in claim 26 wherein the event segments include known information, predictive information, or a combination of known information and predictive information.

28. The method as claimed in claim 27 wherein the known information includes one or more event segments selected from the group consisting of the type and size of a catalog, the number of catalogs dropped, inventory included, special offers made and their duration, the published life of the catalog, and whether all catalogs are dropped from one location or multiple locations, and the predictive information includes one or more event segments selected from the group consisting of the total number of responses expected, expressed as a percentage of catalogs dropped;

the percent of responses that are likely to be orders, literature requests, problems or general inquiries (service types);

the percent of responses expected to arrive via telephone, e-mail, fax, mail or in person (contact mode); and

the average work time required to handle each service type via each contact mode.

29. The method as claimed in claim 26 further comprising the step of adding, subtracting, or modifying one or more of the event segments.

30. The method as claimed in claim 29 further comprising the step of repeating the step of analyzing the one or more event segments and creating a new set of forecasts.

31. The method as claimed in claim 30 further comprising the step of adding one or more prior forecasts as one or more event segments to be analyzed to produce a new set of forecasts.

32. The method as claimed in claim 30 further comprising the step of using variables from one or a collection of previous event segments and responses as a basis for provisioning one or more new event segments.

33. The method as claimed in claim 30 further comprising the step of retaining for access all forecasts produced.

34. The method as claimed in claim 26 further comprising the step of inputting the one or more event segments into a database using a computer with a display and an input device, wherein one or more input tables visible on the display are associated with the database.

35. The method as claimed in claim 34 further comprising the step of outputting the one or more forecasts to one or more output tables visible on the display, wherein the one or more output tables are associated with the database.

36. The method as claimed in claim 26 further comprising the step of providing a manual override to modify one or more forecasts based on human input.

37. The method as claimed in claim 26 wherein any event segment or event segment combination may be analyzed to produce a forecast related to the selected event segment or event segment combination.

38. A method of forecasting an event to conduct based on a desired outcome comprising the steps of:

a. inputting one or more forecasted outcomes desired into a database;

b. analyzing the one or more desired forecasted outcomes to produce one or more event segments; and

c. relating the one or more produced event segments to one or more events to conduct to produce the one or more desired forecasted outcomes.

39. The method as claimed in claim 38 wherein the one or more events are selected from the group consisting of mailings, television ads, new product releases, new service releases, promotions, trade shows, press releases, sales events, catalogs, and advertising.

40. The method as claimed in claim 38 wherein the event segments include known information, predictive information, or a combination of known information and predictive information.

41. The method as claimed in claim 40 wherein the known information includes one or more event segments selected from the group consisting of the type and size of a catalog, the number of catalogs dropped, inventory included, special offers made and their duration, the published life of the catalog, and whether all catalogs are dropped from one location or multiple locations, and the predictive information includes one or more event segments selected from the group consisting of the total number of responses expected, expressed as a percentage of catalogs dropped, the percent of responses that are likely to be orders, literature requests, problems or general inquiries (service types);

the percent of responses expected to arrive via telephone, e-mail, fax, mail or in person (contact mode), and the average work time required to handle each service type via each contact mode.