Advertisement portfolio model, comprehensive advertisement risk management system using advertisement risk management system using advertisement portfolio model, and method for making investment decision by using advertisement portfolio

• US 20060031107A1
• Filed: 07/27/2005
• Published: 02/09/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 12/27/1999
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Dentsu Incorporated (Dentsu Group, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Dentsu Incorporated (Dentsu Group, Inc.)
• Inventors: Aihara, Ken, Hibiki, Norio
• Application Number:
  US11/190,423
• Publication Number:
  US 20060031107A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

An advertisement portfolio model reduces risk in an advertisement transaction for an individual advertisement product. First, a relational expression is used to determine a comprehensive advertisement risk management index for statistically representing a maximum unexpected loss amount to which the advertisement product is subject at a certain probability during the advertising campaign period. Second, a plurality of correlation coefficient data of the advertisement product are calculated from the observational data of the advertisement product. Third, an optimal combination of the advertisement products is determined in order to analyze at least either one of an effect, an efficiency or a risk of the advertisement product based on the relational expression for determining the comprehensive advertisement risk management index and the plurality of correlation coefficient data or the observational data which has taken the correlation into account indirectly, such that a sponsor can determine an optimal combination of the advertisement products.

Claims

1. A method of creating an advertisement portfolio model, comprising the steps of

deriving a relational expression to detemiine a comprehensive advertisement risk management index for statistically representing a maximum unexpected loss amount to which a specific advertisement product is subject to at a certain probability during an advertising campaign period,

calculating, within a calculation processing section of a computer system, a plurality of correlation coefficient data of said advertisement product from an observational data of said advertisement product, and

determining an optimal combination of said advertisement product in order to analyze at least one of an effect, an efficiency or a risk of said advertisement product based on said relational expression for determining said comprehensive advertisement risk management index and said plurality of correlation coefficient data or the observational data which has taken the correlation into account indirectly.

2. The method of creating an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 1, in which said advertisement product comprises at least two or more different advertisement products.

3. The method of creating an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 1, in which said advertisement product includes at least one advertisement derivative product

4. The method of creating an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 3, in which said advertisement derivative product is constructed so as to measure a risk in an individual advertisement transaction and at the same time, to reduce the risk in the individual advertisement transaction.

15. An advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 2, in which said advertisement product includes at least one advertisement derivative product.

24. The method of creating an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 1, further comprising making a decision, by a sponsor of said advertisement product, as to the investment or non-investment in said advertisement product in accordance with said optimal combination of said advertisement product.

5. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an optimal advertisement portfolio model to analyze at least either one of an effect, an efficiency or a risk of an advertisement product, said system comprising:

an input means for entering a setting condition required to calculate a comprehensive advertisement risk management index;

a model generation means for generating a plurality of advertisement portfolio models by firstly calculating a plurality of numeric values relating to an advertising effect and an advertising efficiency from an observational data in the past according to said setting condition entered by said input means, and by secondarily calculating a plurality of correlation coefficient data for a purchased advertisement product from an advertisement product data of said purchased advertisement product;

a verification means for comparing said plurality of those generated advertisement portfolio models to actual data during a period of said advertisement product being offered and for verifying that said plurality of advertisement portfolio models is adaptable to the real condition; and

a selection means for selecting a most suitable advertisement portfolio model with respect to a risk analysis and an effect analysis of said purchased advertisement product from said plurality of advertisement portfolio models based on a verification result by said verification means.

6. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 5, in which said advertisement product comprises at least two or more different advertisement products.

7. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 5, in which said advertisement product includes at least one advertisement derivative product.

8. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 7, in which said advertisement derivative product is constructed so as to measure a risk in an individual advertisement transaction and at the same time, to reduce the risk in said individual advertisement transaction.

9. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 5, in which a plurality of numeric values relating to said advertising effect and said advertising efficiency is represented by two or more values selected from a group consisting of values relating to an audience rating, a cost per mil (CPM), a reach, a frequency and a recognition.

16. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 6, in which said advertisement product includes at least one advertisement derivative product.

17. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 6, in which a plurality of numeric values relating to said advertising effect and said advertising efficiency is represented by two or more values selected from a group consisting of values relating to an audience rating, a cost per mil (CPM), a reach, a frequency and a recognition.

18. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 7, in which a plurality of numeric values relating to said advertising effect and said advertising efficiency is represented by two or more values selected from a group consisting of values relating to an audience rating, a cost per mil (CPM), a reach, a frequency and a recognition.

19. A comprehensive advertisement risk management system using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 8, in which a plurality of numeric values relating to said advertising effect and said advertising efficiency is represented by two or more values selected from a group consisting of values relating to an audience rating, a cost per mil (CPM), a reach, a frequency and a recognition.

10. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model, comprising the steps of:

entering a setting condition required to calculate a comprehensive advertisement risk management index;

calculating, within a calculation processing section of a computer system, a plurality of numeric values relating to an advertising effect and an advertising efficiency from an observational data in the past according to said setting condition entered by said input means;

calculating, within a calculation processing section of a computer system, a plurality of correlation coefficient data for a purchased advertisement product from an advertisement product data of said purchased advertisement product;

generating a plurality of advertisement portfolio models based on the calculation results;

comparing a plurality of those generated advertisement portfolio models to actual data during a period of said purchased advertisement product being offered;

verifying that said plurality of advertisement portfolio models is adaptable to a real condition based on the comparison result; and

selecting a most suitable advertisement portfolio model with respect to a risk analysis and an effect analysis of said purchased advertisement product from said plurality of advertisement portfolio models based on said verification result.

11. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 10, in which said advertisement product comprises at least two or more different advertisement products.

12. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 10, in which said advertisement product includes at least one advertisement derivative product.

13. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 12, in which said advertisement derivative product is constructed so as to measure a risk in an individual advertisement transaction and at the same time, to reduce the risk in said individual advertisement transaction.

14. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 10, in which a plurality of numeric values relating to said advertising effect and said advertising efficiency is represented by two or more values selected from a group consisting of values relating to an audience rating, a cost per mil (CPM), a reach, a frequency and a recognition.

20. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 11, in which said advertisement product includes at least one advertisement derivative product.

21. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 11, in which a plurality of numeric values relating to said advertising effect and said advertising efficiency is represented by two or more values selected from a group consisting of values relating to an audience rating, a cost per mil (CPM), a reach, a frequency and a recognition.

22. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 12, in which a plurality of numeric values relating to said advertising effect and said advertising efficiency is represented by two or more values selected from a group consisting of values relating to an audience rating, a cost per mil (CPM), a reach, a frequency and a recognition.

23. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 13, in which a plurality of numeric values relating to said advertising effect and said advertising efficiency is represented by two or more values selected from a group consisting of values relating to an audience rating, a cost per mil (CPM), a reach, a frequency and a recognition.

25. An investment decision making method using an advertisement portfolio model in accordance with claim 10, further comprising arranging for placement or non-placement of said purchased advertisement product in an appropriate advertising medium in accordance with said most suitable advertisement portfolio model.