Predictive analysis of availability of systems and/or system components

• US 20060095247A1
• Filed: 12/15/2005
• Published: 05/04/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 10/22/2002
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Nelson, David C., O'Connell, Don M.
• Granted Patent: US 7,797,141 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 703/22
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management

Abstract

A method of modeling a mission system. The system is represented as a plurality of architectural components. At least some of the architectural components are configured with availability characteristics to obtain a model of the system. The model is implemented to assess availability in the mission system. The model may be implemented to perform tradeoff decisions for each individual component and interrelated components. Availability can be assessed for the system, given all of the tradeoffs.

Claims

1. A method of modeling a mission system comprising:

representing the system as a plurality of architectural components;

configuring at least some of the architectural components with availability characteristics to obtain a model of the system; and

implementing the model to assess availability in the mission system.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein representing the system as a plurality of architectural components comprises using a plurality of components of generic structure (COGSs).

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the architectural components include at least one hardware component and at least one software component.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein configuring at least some of the architectural components with availability characteristics comprises associating one or more availability analysis components with one of the hardware and software components.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein implementing the model comprises:

providing one or more spreadsheet inputs to the model; and

performing discrete event simulation using the inputs.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the availability characteristics comprise at least one of the following:

reliability, failure rate, coldstart time, restart time, switchover time, cascading characteristics, redundancy, queuing characteristics, and heartbeat.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein configuring the architectural components with availability characteristics comprises including the availability characteristics in one or more spreadsheets, and implementing the model comprises using the spreadsheets to approximate reliability of the mission system.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein using the spreadsheets to approximate reliability comprises:

combining reliability values in the spreadsheets for the architectural components to obtain an overall reliability value; and

adjusting the overall reliability value by any transient failure downtimes included the spreadsheets.

9. An apparatus for analyzing availability in a mission system, the apparatus comprising at least one processor and at least one memory configured to:

represent the system as a plurality of architectural components;

configure at least some of the architectural components with availability characteristics to provide a model of the system; and

execute the model.

10. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the at least one processor and at least one memory are further configured to assess availability in the presence of operational data, performance data, a changing system environment, and a changing system scenario.

11. The apparatus of claim 10, wherein the at least one processor and at least one memory are further configured to use a plurality of components of generic structure (COGSs) to assess availability.

12. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the apparatus is further configured to receive at least one spreadsheet input to the model.

13. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the availability characteristics comprise at least one of the following:

reliability, failure rate, coldstart time, restart time, switchover time, cascading characteristics, redundancy, queuing characteristics, and heartbeat.

14. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the at least one processor and memory are further configured to selectively apply software component reliability algorithms and calculation input parameters to model one or more software components;

and

assess an impact, if any, of the one or more modeled software components on overall reliability of the mission system.

perform a component reliability rate calculation selectable from a plurality of statistical calculation types.

15. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the at least one processor and memory are further configured to select a reliability rate calculation for a component.

16. The apparatus of claim 15, wherein the at least one processor and memory are further configured to select a statistical rate calculation for a component.

17. The apparatus of claim 15, wherein the at least one processor and memory are further configured to vary a selected statistical rate calculation for a component.

18. A method of modeling a system comprising:

using a plurality of components of generic structure (COGSs) to represent hardware components and software components of the system;

associating each of at least some of the COGSs with one or more availability analysis components to obtain a model representing availability characteristics of the system; and

inputting one or more spreadsheets to a discrete event simulation tool to implement the model.

19. The method of claim 18, further comprising using the spreadsheet input to the availability analysis components to control component availability in the model.

20. The method of claim 18, further comprising performing availability analysis and performance analysis in a single implementation of the model.