METHOD, SYSTEM, AND STORAGE MEDIUM FOR DEVELOPING A FORECAST OFGOODS AND SERVICES

• US 20060106664A1
• Filed: 11/17/2004
• Published: 05/18/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 11/17/2004
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Jamil, Mamnoon, Peters, Daniel J.
• Application Number:
  US10/904,579
• Publication Number:
  US 20060106664A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0601 Electronic shopping [e-shopping]

Abstract

A method, system, and storage medium for developing a forecast of goods or services. The method includes identifying current or previous goods or services that have characteristics similar to those of a new or replacement good or service to be forecasted. The method further includes obtaining delivery data associated with the current or previous goods or services, and adjusting delivery volume data of the current or previous goods or services for corresponding announce and withdrawn time periods, resulting in a modified delivery data. Using the modified delivery data in conjunction with planned release and withdrawal dates and forecasted time periods and total quantities associated with the new or replacement good or service for the life span, the method includes translating lifecycle patterns for the current or previous goods or services into a lifecycle forecast for the new or replacement good or service.

Claims

1. A method for developing a forecast of goods or services, comprising:

identifying current or previous goods or services that have characteristics similar to those of a new or replacement good or service to be forecasted;

obtaining delivery data associated with the current or previous goods or services;

adjusting delivery volume data of the current or previous goods or services for corresponding announce and withdrawn time periods, resulting in a modified delivery data; and

using the modified delivery data in conjunction with planned release and withdrawal dates and forecasted time periods and quantities associated with the new or replacement good or service, translating lifecycle patterns for the current or previous goods or services into a lifecycle forecast for the new or replacement good or service.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the obtaining delivery data includes at least one of:

obtaining historical delivery data for the previous good or service; and

estimating remainder of lifecycles for the current good or service based upon at least one of;

percentage of lifespan completed;

volume of remaining deliveries;

distribution of remaining deliveries; and

number of remaining time periods in the lifecycle.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the adjusting is via linear adjustment calculations.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the linear adjustment calculations is for a current or previous good or service.

5. The method of claim 3, wherein the linear adjustment calculations is for a new or replacement good or service.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the adjusting is via demand skew adjustment calculations.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the demand skew adjustment calculation is for a current or previous good or service.

8. The method of claim 6, wherein the demand skew adjustment calculation is for a new or replacement good or service.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the adjusting delivery volume data includes normalizing delivery data for the current or previous good or service to a delivery percentage and calculating a cumulative delivery percentage.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the adjusting delivery volume data further includes computing a cumulative factor via a ratio of a number of time periods of the current or previous good or service and a forecasted number of time periods of the new or replacement good or service.

11. A storage medium encoded with machine-readable program code for developing a forecast of goods or services, the program code including instructions for causing a host system to implement a method, comprising:

identifying current or previous goods or services that have characteristics similar to those of a new or replacement good or service to be forecasted;

obtaining delivery data associated with the current or previous goods or services;

adjusting delivery volume data of the current or previous goods or services for corresponding announce and withdrawn time periods, resulting in a modified delivery data; and

using the modified delivery data in conjunction with planned release and withdrawal dates and forecasted time periods and quantities associated with the new or replacement good or service, translating lifecycle patterns for the current or previous goods or services into a lifecycle forecast for the new or replacement good or service.

12. The storage medium of claim 11, wherein the obtaining delivery data includes at least one of:

obtaining historical delivery data for the previous good or service; and

estimating remainder of lifecycles for the current good or service based upon at least one of;

percentage of lifespan completed;

volume of remaining deliveries;

distribution of remaining deliveries; and

number of remaining time periods in the lifecycle.

13. The storage medium of claim 11, wherein the adjusting is via linear adjustment calculations.

14. The storage medium of claim 13, wherein the linear adjustment calculations is for a current or previous good or service.

15. The storage medium of claim 13, wherein the linear adjustment calculations is for a new or replacement good or service.

16. The storage medium of claim 11, wherein the adjusting is via demand skew adjustment calculations.

17. The storage medium of claim 16, wherein the demand skew adjustment calculation is for a current or previous good or service.

18. The storage medium of claim 16, wherein the demand skew adjustment calculation is for a new or replacement good or service.

19. The storage medium of claim 11, wherein the adjusting delivery volume data includes normalizing delivery data for the current or previous good or service to a delivery percentage and calculating a cumulative delivery percentage.

20. The storage medium of claim 11 wherein the adjusting delivery volume data further includes computing a cumulative factor via a ratio of a number of time periods of the current or previous good or service and a forecasted number of time periods of the new or replacement good or service.

21. A system for developing a forecast of goods or services, comprising:

a host system executing an enterprise resource planning application, the enterprise resource planning application including a demand management component, a delivery history component, and a lifecycle analysis component;

a storage device in communication with the host system; and

a link to at least one client system;

wherein the enterprise resource planning application performs;

identifying current or previous goods or services that have characteristics similar to those of a new or replacement good or service to be forecasted via the demand management component and the lifecycle analysis component;

obtaining delivery data associated with the current or previous goods or services via the delivery history component;

adjusting delivery volume data of the current or previous goods or services for corresponding announce and withdrawn time periods via the lifecycle analysis component, the adjusting resulting in a modified delivery data; and

using the modified delivery data in conjunction with planned release and withdrawal dates and forecasted time periods and quantities associated with the new or replacement good or service, translating lifecycle patterns for the current or previous goods or services into a lifecycle forecast for the new or replacement good or service.

22. The system of claim 21, wherein the obtaining delivery data includes at least one of:

obtaining historical delivery data for the previous good or service; and

estimating remainder of lifecycles for the current good or service based upon at least one of;

percentage of lifespan completed;

volume of remaining deliveries;

distribution of remaining deliveries; and

number of remaining time periods in the lifecycle.

23. The system of claim 21, wherein the adjusting is via linear adjustment calculations.

24. The system of claim 23, wherein the linear adjustment calculations is for a current or previous good or service.

25. The system of claim 23, wherein the linear adjustment calculations is for a new or replacement good or service.

26. The system of claim 21, wherein the adjusting is via demand skew adjustment calculations.

27. The system of claim 26, wherein the demand skew adjustment calculation is for a current or previous good or service.

28. The system of claim 26, wherein the demand skew adjustment calculation is for a new or replacement good or service.

29. The system of claim 21, wherein the adjusting delivery volume data includes normalizing delivery data for the current or previous good or service to a delivery percentage and calculating a cumulative delivery percentage.

30. The system of claim 21, wherein the adjusting delivery volume data further includes computing a cumulative factor via a ratio of a number of time periods of the current or previous good or service and a forecasted number of time periods of the new or replacement good or service.