Building and using predictive models of current and future surprises
First Claim
1. A system that predicts and outputs events identified as being surprising to people, comprising:
- an interface component that receives contextual data; and
a predictive model component that utilizes the contextual data to predict an event and outputs the prediction if the prediction corresponds to one or more definitions of surprise.
2 Assignments
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
Methods are described for identifying events that would be considered surprising by people and identifying how and when to transmit information to a user about situations that they would likely find surprising. Additionally, the methods of identifying surprising situations can be used to build a case library of surprising events, joined with a set of observations before the surprising events occurred. Statistical machine learning methods can be applied with data from the case library to build models that can predict when a user will likely be surprised at future times. One or more models of context-sensitive expectations of people, a view of the current world, and methods for recording streams or events before surprises occur, and for building predictive models from a case library of surprises and such historical observations can be employed. The models of current and future surprises can be coupled with display and alerting machinery.
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Citations
20 Claims
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1. A system that predicts and outputs events identified as being surprising to people, comprising:
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an interface component that receives contextual data; and
a predictive model component that utilizes the contextual data to predict an event and outputs the prediction if the prediction corresponds to one or more definitions of surprise. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
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11. A method for recognizing surprising events and predicting future surprising events, comprising:
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providing a predictive model;
associating definitions of atypical events with the predictive model;
providing the predictive model with contextual data;
predicting an event as a function of the contextual data; and
determining that the predicted event corresponds to the definitions of surprising events. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18)
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19. A predictive system, comprising:
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means for predicting an event that occurs at a future point in time;
means for defining surprising events; and
means for correlating the predicted event with the defined surprising events to determine that the predicted event is a surprising event. - View Dependent Claims (20)
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Specification