System, method and program for estimating risk of disaster in infrastructure

• US 20060111927A1
• Filed: 11/10/2005
• Published: 05/25/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 11/19/2004
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Kyndryl Incorporated
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Sereville, Etienne de
• Application Number:
  US11/272,299
• Publication Number:
  US 20060111927A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/079 Root cause analysis, i.e. error or fault diagnosis in a hardware test environment G06F11/22; in a software test environment G06F11/36
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

Method, system and computer program for estimating risk of a future disaster of an infrastructure. Times of previous, respective disasters of the infrastructure are identified. Respective severities of the previous disasters are determined. Risk of a future disaster of the infrastructure is estimated by determining a relationship between the previous disasters, their respective severities and their respective times of occurrence. The risk can be estimated by generating a polynomial linking severity and time of occurrence of each of the previous disasters. The polynomial can be generated by approximating a Tchebychev polynomial.

Claims

1. A method of estimating risk of a future disaster of an infrastructure, said method comprising the steps of:

identifying times of previous, respective disasters of said infrastructure;

determining respective severities of said previous disasters; and

estimating risk of a future disaster of said infrastructure by determining a relationship between said previous disasters, their respective severities and their respective times of occurrence.

2. A method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step of estimating risk comprises the step of generating a polynomial linking severity and time of occurrence of each of said previous disasters.

3. A method as claimed in claim 2, wherein the step of estimating risk comprises the step of modifying said polynomial by extracting peaks in a curve representing said polynomial, regenerating the polynomial using the extracted peaks and repeating the modifying step until a number of extracted peaks is less than or equal to a predetermined value.

4. A method as claimed in claim 2, wherein two or more of said previous disasters occur within a predetermined time period, and said polynomial is based on a most severe one of said two or more previous disasters.

5. A method as claimed in claim 2, wherein the step of generating a polynomial comprises the step of approximating a Tchebychev polynomial.

6. A method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the infrastructure is an IT infrastructure.

7. A method as claimed in claim 6, wherein the IT infrastructure comprises a network of computers, hardware and/or software components.

8. A method as claimed in claim 7, further comprising the step of sending instructions to other computers of the network to minimize occurrence of high risk disasters in the future.

9. A system for estimating risk of a future disaster of an infrastructure, said system comprising:

means for identifying times of previous, respective disasters of said infrastructure;

means for determining respective severities of said previous disasters; and

means for estimating risk of a future disaster of said infrastructure by determining a relationship between said previous disasters, their respective severities and their respective times of occurrence.

10. A system as claimed in claim 9, wherein the means for estimating risk comprises means for generating a polynomial linking severity and time of occurrence of each of said previous disasters.

11. A system as claimed in claim 10, wherein the means for estimating risk further comprises means for modifying said polynomial by extracting peaks in a curve representing said polynomial, regenerating the polynomial using the extracted peaks and repeating the modifying until a number of extracted peaks is less than or equal to a predetermined value.

12. A system as claimed in claim 10, wherein two or more of said previous disasters occur within a predetermined time period, and said polynomial is based on a most severe one of said two or more previous disasters.

13. A system as claimed in claim 10, wherein the means for generating a polynomial comprises means for approximating a Tchebychev polynomial.

14. A system as claimed in claim 9, wherein the infrastructure is an IT infrastructure.

15. A system as claimed in claim 14, wherein the IT infrastructure comprises a network of computers, hardware and/or software components.

16. A system as claimed in claim 15, further comprising means for sending instructions to other computers of the network to minimize occurrence of high risk disasters in the future.

17. A computer program product for estimating risk of a future disaster of an infrastructure, said computer program product comprising:

a computer readable medium;

first program instrutions to identify times of previous, respective disasters of said infrastructure;

second program instructions to determine respective severities of said previous disasters; and

third program instructions to estimate risk of a future disaster of said infrastructure by determining a relationship between said previous disasters, their respective severities and their respective times of occurrence; and

wherein

said first, second and third program instructions are stored on said medium.

18. A computer program product as claimed in claim 17, wherein said third program instructions estimate risk by generating a polynomial linking severity and time of occurrence of each of said previous disasters.

19. A computer program product as claimed in claim 18, wherein said third program instructions further estimate risk by modifying said polynomial by extracting peaks in a curve representing said polynomial, regenerating the polynomial using the extracted peaks and repeating the modifying step until a number of extracted peaks is less than or equal to a predetermined value.

20. A computer program product as claimed in claim 18, wherein said third program instructions generate the polynomial by approximating a Tchebychev polynomial.