Techniques for estimating sales of items through a particular channel

• US 20060122888A1
• Filed: 08/27/2004
• Published: 06/08/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 09/05/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: IMS Software Services Ltd. (IQVIA Holdings, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: IMS Software Services Ltd. (IQVIA Holdings, Inc.)
• Inventors: Rios, Carlos, St-Martin, Pierre, Pirollo, Lino, Caron, Jerome
• Granted Patent: US 8,452,635 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/26
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/06 Buying, selling or leasing transactions
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0601 Electronic shopping [e-shopping]

Abstract

In one arrangement, a method for estimating sales of a particular type of item by a first entity through a first channel versus sales of the particular type of item by the first entity through a second channel includes the step of estimating a particular point of time, such as a day or a month, corresponding to when the first entity initially sold the particular type of item through the first channel. The method also includes the step of selecting a second entity which sells the particular type of item. Specifically, each sale of the particular type of item by the second entity may be through the second channel. The method further includes the step of comparing data associated with sales of the particular type of item by the first entity before the occurrence of the particular point time with data associated with sales of the particular type of item by the second entity before the occurrence of the particular point time to determine an adjustment factor. Moreover, the method includes the step of altering data associated with sales of the particular type of item by the second entity after the occurrence of the particular point time based on the adjustment factor to obtain altered sales data. The method also includes the step of comparing data associated with sales of the particular type of item by the first entity after the occurrence of the particular point time with the altered sales data to obtain an estimation of sales of the particular type of item by the first entity through the first channel.

Claims

1. A method for estimating sales of at least one type of item by at least one first entity through a first channel versus sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity through a second channel, comprising the steps of:

estimating a particular point of time corresponding to when the at least one first entity initially sold the at least one type of item through the first channel;

selecting at least one second entity which sells the at least one type of item, wherein each sale of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity is through the second channel;

comparing data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity before the occurrence of the particular point time with data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity before the occurrence of the particular point time to determine an adjustment factor;

altering data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity after the occurrence of the particular point time based on the adjustment factor to obtain altered sales data; and

comparing data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity after the occurrence of the particular point time with the altered sales data to obtain an estimation of sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity through the first channel.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of estimating the particular point of time includes the steps of:

determining a first monetary value associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity during a first predetermined period of time;

determining a second monetary value associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity during a second predetermined period of time, wherein the second predetermined period of time occurred after the first predetermined period of time;

determining a third monetary value associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity during a third predetermined period of time, wherein the third predetermined period of time occurred after the second predetermined period of time.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the step of estimating the particular point of time includes the steps of:

calculating a first percentage, wherein the first percentage equals {[(B-A)/A]*100%}, where A is the first monetary value and B is the second monetary value;

calculating a second percentage, wherein the second percentage equals {[(C-B)/B]*100%}, where B is the second monetary value and C is the third monetary value;

selecting the first predetermined period time and the second predetermined period of time when the first percentage is greater than or equal to a particular predetermined percentage; and

selecting the second predetermined period time and the third predetermined period of time when;

the first percentage is less than the particular predetermined percentage; and

the second percentage is greater than or equal to the particular predetermined percentage.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the step of selecting the first predetermined period time and the second predetermined period of time includes the steps of:

determining a fourth monetary value associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity during a first portion of the first predetermined period of time;

determining a fifth monetary value associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity during a second portion of the first predetermined period of time, wherein the second portion of the first predetermined period of time occurred after the first portion of the first predetermined period of time;

determining a sixth monetary value associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity during a first portion of the second predetermined period of time; and

determining a seventh monetary value associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity during a second portion of the second predetermined period of time, wherein the second portion of the second predetermined period of time occurred after the first portion of the second predetermined period of time.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein the step of selecting the first predetermined period time and the second predetermined period of time further includes the steps of:

calculating a third percentage, wherein the third percentage equals {[(E-D)/E]*100%}, where D is the fourth monetary value and E is the fifth monetary value;

calculating a fourth percentage, wherein the fourth percentage equals {[(F-E)/F]*100%}, where E is the fifth monetary value and F is the sixth monetary value;

calculating a fifth percentage, wherein the fifth percentage equals {[(G-F)/G]*100%}, where G is the sixth monetary value and F is the seventh monetary value; and

estimating the particular point of time based on the third percentage, the fourth percentage, and the fifth percentage.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the step of estimating the particular point of time based on the third percentage, the fourth percentage, and the fifth percentage includes the steps of:

selecting the second portion of the first predetermined period of time as the particular point of time when the third percentage is greater than or equal to a further predetermined percentage;

selecting the first portion of the second predetermined period of time as the particular point of time when;

the third percentage is less than the further predetermined percentage; and

the fourth percentage is greater than or equal to the further predetermined percentage; and

selecting the second portion of the second predetermined period of time as the particular point of time when;

each of the third and fourth percentages is less than the further predetermined percentage; and

the fifth percentage is greater than or equal to the further predetermined percentage.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the step of estimating the particular point of time based on the third percentage, the fourth percentage, and the fifth percentage further includes the step of selecting the first portion of the second predetermined period of time as the particular point of time when each of the third, fourth, and fifth percentages is less than the further predetermined percentage.

8. The method of claim 6, wherein the particular predetermined percentage is 15%, and the further predetermined percentage is about 30%.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein a location and a size of the at least one first entity is substantially the same as a location and a size of the at least one second entity.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein a location of the at least one first entity is substantially the same as a location of the at least one second entity.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the adjustment factor equals (H/I), where H corresponds to the data associated with the sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity before the occurrence of the particular point time, and I corresponds to the data associated with the sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity before the occurrence of the particular point time.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the altered sales data equals (J*K), where J corresponds to the sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity after the occurrence of the particular point time, and K is the adjustment factor.

13. The method claim 12, wherein the estimation of sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity through the first channel equals (L-M), where L corresponds to the sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity after the occurrence of the particular point time, and M is the altered sales data.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein the first channel corresponds to internet sales, the second channel corresponds to non-internet sales, and the first entity is a store which initially purchased the at least one type of item from a pharmaceutical company.

15. The method of claim 1, wherein the first channel corresponds to sales of the at least one item to residents of a first country, and the second channel corresponds to sales of the at least one item to residents of a second country.

16. A system for estimating sales of at least one type of item by at least one first entity through a first channel versus sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity through a second channel, wherein the system comprises:

a storage device for storing information associated with sales of the at least one type of item; and

a processor coupled to the storage device , wherein the processor is operable to;

estimate a particular point of time corresponding to when the at least one first entity initially sold the at least one type of item through the first channel;

select at least one second entity which sells the at least one type of item, wherein each sale of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity is through the second channel;

compare data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity before the occurrence of the particular point time with data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity before the occurrence of the particular point time to determine an adjustment factor;

alter data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity after the occurrence of the particular point time based on the adjustment factor to obtain altered sales data; and

compare data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity after the occurrence of the particular point time with the altered sales data to obtain an estimation of sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity through the first channel.

17. The system of claim 16, wherein the adjustment factor equals (H/I), where H corresponds to the data associated with the sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity before the occurrence of the particular point time, and I corresponds to the data associated with the sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity before the occurrence of the particular point time.

18. The system of claim 17, wherein the altered sales data equals (J*K), where J corresponds to the sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity after the occurrence of the particular point time, and K is the adjustment factor.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein the estimation of sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity through the first channel equals (L-M), where L corresponds to the sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity after the occurrence of the particular point time, and M is the altered sales data.

20. The system of claim 16, wherein the first channel corresponds to internet sales, and the second channel corresponds to non-internet sales.

21. A software arrangement, which is operable to be executed by a processing system to perform the steps comprising of:

estimating a particular point of time corresponding to when at least one first entity initially sold at least one type of item through a first channel;

selecting at least one second entity which sells the at least one type of item, wherein each sale of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity is through a second channel;

comparing data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity before the occurrence of the particular point time with data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity before the occurrence of the particular point time to determine an adjustment factor;

altering data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one second entity after the occurrence of the particular point time based on the adjustment factor to obtain altered sales data; and

comparing data associated with sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity after the occurrence of the particular point time with the altered sales data to obtain an estimation of sales of the at least one type of item by the at least one first entity through the first channel.