Methods, systems and mediums for scoring customers for marketing

• US 20060143071A1
• Filed: 06/10/2005
• Published: 06/29/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 12/14/2004
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: HSBC North America Holdings Incorporated (HSBC Holdings plc)
• Original Assignee: HSBC North America Holdings Incorporated (HSBC Holdings plc)
• Inventors: Hofmann, Glenn
• Application Number:
  US11/149,642
• Publication Number:
  US 20060143071A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration

Abstract

Methods, systems, and mediums for calculating a score that predicts customer activity in the future such as whether the customer will make a purchase, visit a store, etc., or how much money the customer will spend, how many times the customer will shop, etc., are provided. In certain embodiments, these methods and systems collect demographic data and transactional data for customers, summarize at least on variable in the demographic data and the transactional data and attach the summary data to each customer, apply a statistical algorithm to the demographic data, the transactional data, and the summary data to create a model of a target variable related to customer activity and/or loyalty, derive a score for each of the customers from the model, select some of the customers based on the scores, and market directly to the selected customers.

Claims

1. A method for scoring customers for marketing, comprising:

collecting demographic data and transactional data for each of the customers;

summarizing at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data to form summary data, and attaching the summary data to each of the customers;

applying a statistical algorithm to the demographic data, the transactional data, and the summary data to create a model of a target variable related to customer activity and/or loyalty;

deriving a score for each of the customers from the model;

selecting at least some of the customers based on the score for each of the customers; and

marketing directly to the selected customers.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the summary data comprises a mean of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the summary data comprises a median of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the summary data comprises a quantile of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the summary data comprises a standard deviation of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the summary data comprises the relative and/or absolute frequency of at least one value of at least one categorical and/or discrete variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

7. The method of claim 6, further comprising aggregating values of the at least one categorical and/or discrete variable that are most infrequent into a separate category, and using the separate category instead of individual values to calculate the relative and/or absolute frequency.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising calculating, for each of the customers, the deviation of the customer from the summary data.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the target variable is binary and the score indicates the predicted probability of a binary event corresponding to the target variable.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the binary event is one of:

a customer showing activity in a given time period;

a customer engaging in a given number of transactions in a given period;

a customer spending a given amount in the given period, a customer making a given number of retail visits in the given period;

a customer qualifying for a loyalty program;

a customer showing purchase activity in a given period; and

a customer purchasing or subscribing to a certain combination of products.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the target variable is numeric and the score indicates the predicted value of the target variable.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the target variable represents one of:

the amount spent by a customer;

the number of transactions engaged in by a customer;

the number of products and/or subscriptions purchased by a customer;

the number of visits to a retail location made by a customer;

the number of visits by a customer to a Web site;

the number of purchases by a customer of a least a certain amount.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein the summarizing is based on at least one group variable.

14. The method of claim 13, wherein the at least one group variable is external to the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

15. The method of claim 13, wherein the at least one group variable is in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

16. The method of claim 13, wherein the at least one group variable comprises at least one of retail store, transaction location, home zip code, county, state, country, and a cluster code.

17. The method of claim 16, wherein the at least one group variable comprises the cluster code and the cluster code is one of ACXIOM'"'"'S PERSONICX, LOOKING GLASS'"'"' COHORTS, CLARITAS'"'"' PRISM, ESRI'"'"'S COMMUNITY, EXPERIAN'"'"'S MOSAIC, and MAPINFO'"'"'S PSYTE.

18. The method of claim 1, wherein the statistical algorithm includes combining multiple-model fits using a committee method.

19. The method of claim 18, wherein the committee method is one of bagging and boosting.

20. The method of claim 1, wherein the statistical algorithm is a parametric model.

21. The method of claim 20, wherein the parametric model is one of:

a logistic regression model;

a linear regression model;

a non-linear regression model;

a generalized linear model;

generalized estimating equations;

linear discriminant analysis; and

quadratic discriminant analysis.

22. The method of claim 1, wherein the statistical algorithm is a non-parametric model.

23. The method of claim 22, wherein the non-parametric model is one of:

a neural network;

a support vector machine;

a nearest neighbor model;

a non-parametric regression model;

a spline model;

a kernel model;

a patient rule induction method; and

a tree algorithm.

24. The method of claim 23, wherein the non-parametric model is a tree algorithm and the tree algorithm is one of:

CART, CHAID, TreeNet, and Random Forests.

25. The method of claim 1, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers who have been inactive for a given period.

26. The method of claim 1, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers eligible or nearly eligible for enrolment in a loyalty program.

27. The method of claim 1, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers likely to attrite from the active customer base or from a loyalty program.

28. The method of claim 1, wherein directly marketing includes marketing customers who are most likely to be active.

29. A system for scoring customers for marketing, comprising:

at least one database containing demographic data and transactional data for each of the customers;

a computer that;

receives from the at least one database the demographic data and the transactional data,

summarizes at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data to form summary data, and attaches the summary data to each of the customers,

applies a statistical algorithm to the demographic data, the transactional data, and the summary data to create a model of a target variable related to customer activity and/or loyalty, and

derives a score for each of the customers from the model;

selects at least some of the customers based on the score for each of the customers; and

markets directly to the selected customers.

30. The system of claim 29, wherein the summary data comprises a mean of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

31. The system of claim 29, wherein the summary data comprises a median of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

32. The system of claim 29, wherein the summary data comprises a quantile of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

33. The system of claim 29, wherein the summary data comprises a standard deviation of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

34. The system of claim 29, wherein the summary data comprises the relative and/or absolute frequency of at least one value of at least one categorical and/or discrete variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

35. The system of claim 34, wherein the computer also aggregates values of the at least one categorical and/or discrete variable that are most infrequent into a separate category, and using the separate category instead of individual values to calculate the relative and/or absolute frequency.

36. The system of claim 29, wherein the computer also calculates, for each of the customers, the deviation of the customer from the summary data.

37. The system of claim 29, wherein the target variable is binary and the score indicates the predicted probability of a binary event corresponding to the target variable.

38. The system of claim 37, wherein the binary event is one of:

a customer showing activity in a given time period;

a customer engaging in a given number of transactions in a given period;

a customer spending a given amount in the given period, a customer making a given number of retail visits in the given period;

a customer qualifying for a loyalty program;

a customer showing purchase activity in a given period; and

a customer purchasing or subscribing to a certain combination of products.

39. The system of claim 29, wherein the target variable is numeric and the score indicates the predicted value of the target variable.

40. The system of claim 39, wherein the target variable represents one of:

the amount spent by a customer;

the number of transactions engaged in by a customer;

the number of products and/or subscriptions purchased by a customer;

the number of visits to a retail location made by a customer;

the number of visits by a customer to a Web site;

the number of purchases by a customer of a least a certain amount.

41. The system of claim 29, wherein the summarizing is based on at least one group variable.

42. The system of claim 41, wherein the at least one group variable is external to the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

43. The system of claim 41, wherein the at least one group variable is in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

44. The system of claim 41, wherein the at least one group variable comprises at least one of retail store, transaction location, home zip code, county, state, country, and a cluster code.

46. The system of claim 29, wherein the statistical algorithm includes combining multiple-model fits using a committee method.

47. The system of claim 46, wherein the committee method is one of bagging and boosting.

48. The system of claim 29, wherein the statistical algorithm is a parametric model.

49. The system of claim 48, wherein the parametric model is one of:

a logistic regression model;

a linear regression model;

a non-linear regression model;

a generalized linear model;

generalized estimating equations;

linear discriminant analysis; and

quadratic discriminant analysis.

50. The system of claim 29, wherein the statistical algorithm is a non-parametric model.

51. The system of claim 50, wherein the non-parametric model is one of:

a neural network;

a support vector machine;

a nearest neighbor model;

a non-parametric regression model;

a spline model;

a kernel model;

a patient rule induction method; and

a tree algorithm.

52. The system of claim 51, wherein the non-parametric model is a tree algorithm and the tree algorithm is one of:

CART, CHAID, TreeNet, and Random Forests.

53. The system of claim 29, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers who have been inactive for a given period.

54. The system of claim 29, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers eligible or nearly eligible for enrolment in a loyalty program.

55. The system of claim 29, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers likely to attrite from the active customer base or from a loyalty program.

56. The system of claim 29, wherein directly marketing includes marketing customers who are most likely to be active.

45. The system of claim 45, wherein the at least one group variable comprises the cluster code and the cluster code is one of ACXIOM'"'"'S PERSONICX, LOOKING GLASS'"'"' COHORTS, CLARITAS'"'"' PRISM, ESRI'"'"'S COMMUNITY, EXPERIAN'"'"'S MOSAIC, and MAPINFO'"'"'S PSYTE.

57. A computer readable medium comprising instructions being executed by a computer, the instructions including a software application for scoring customers for marketing, the instructions for implementing the steps of:

collecting demographic data and transactional data for each of the customers;

summarizing at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data to form summary data, and attaching the summary data to each of the customers;

applying a statistical algorithm to the demographic data, the transactional data, and the summary data to create a model of a target variable related to customer activity and/or loyalty;

deriving a score for each of the customers from the model;

selecting at least some of the customers based on the score for each of the customers; and

marketing directly to the selected customers.

58. The medium of claim 57, wherein the summary data comprises a mean of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

59. The medium of claim 57, wherein the summary data comprises a median of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

60. The medium of claim 57, wherein the summary data comprises a quantile of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

61. The medium of claim 57, wherein the summary data comprises a standard deviation of the at least one variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

62. The medium of claim 57, wherein the summary data comprises the relative and/or absolute frequency of at least one value of at least one categorical and/or discrete variable in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

63. The medium of claim 62, further comprising the instructions for aggregating values of the at least one categorical and/or discrete variable that are most infrequent into a separate category, and using the separate category instead of individual values to calculate the relative and/or absolute frequency.

64. The medium of claim 57, further comprising calculating, for each of the customers, the deviation of the customer from the summary data.

65. The medium of claim 57, wherein the target variable is binary and the score indicates the predicted probability of a binary event corresponding to the target variable.

66. The medium of claim 65, wherein the binary event is one of:

a customer showing activity in a given time period;

a customer engaging in a given number of transactions in a given period;

a customer spending a given amount in the given period, a customer making a given number of retail visits in the given period;

a customer qualifying for a loyalty program;

a customer showing purchase activity in a given period; and

a customer purchasing or subscribing to a certain combination of products.

67. The medium of claim 57, wherein the target variable is numeric and the score indicates the predicted value of the target variable.

68. The medium of claim 67, wherein the target variable represents one of:

the amount spent by a customer;

the number of transactions engaged in by a customer;

the number of products and/or subscriptions purchased by a customer;

the number of visits to a retail location made by a customer;

the number of visits by a customer to a Web site;

the number of purchases by a customer of a least a certain amount.

69. The medium of claim 57, wherein the summarizing is based on at least one group variable.

70. The medium of claim 69, wherein the at least one group variable is external to the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

71. The medium of claim 69, wherein the at least one group variable is in the demographic data and/or the transactional data.

72. The medium of claim 69, wherein the at least one group variable comprises at least one of retail store, transaction location, home zip code, county, state, country, and a cluster code.

73. The medium of claim 72, wherein the at least one group variable comprises the cluster code and the cluster code is one of ACXIOM'"'"'S PERSONICX, LOOKING GLASS'"'"' COHORTS, CLARITAS'"'"' PRISM, ESRI'"'"'S COMMUNITY, EXPERIAN'"'"'S MOSAIC, and MAPINFO'"'"'S PSYTE.

74. The medium of claim 57, wherein the statistical algorithm includes combining multiple-model fits using a committee method.

75. The medium of claim 74, wherein the committee method is one of bagging and boosting.

76. The medium of claim 57, wherein the statistical algorithm is a parametric model.

77. The medium of claim 76, wherein the parametric model is one of:

a logistic regression model;

a linear regression model;

a non-linear regression model;

a generalized linear model;

generalized estimating equations;

linear discriminant analysis; and

quadratic discriminant analysis.

78. The medium of claim 57, wherein the statistical algorithm is a non-parametric model.

79. The medium of claim 78, wherein the non-parametric model is one of:

a neural network;

a support vector machine;

a nearest neighbor model;

a non-parametric regression model;

a spline model;

a kernel model;

a patient rule induction method; and

a tree algorithm.

80. The medium of claim 79, wherein the non-parametric model is a tree algorithm and the tree algorithm is one of:

CART, CHAID, TreeNet, and Random Forests.

81. The medium of claim 57, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers who have been inactive for a given period.

82. The medium of claim 57, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers eligible or nearly eligible for enrolment in a loyalty program.

83. The medium of claim 57, wherein the marketing includes marketing customers likely to attrite from the active customer base or from a loyalty program.

84. The medium of claim 57, wherein directly marketing includes marketing customers who are most likely to be active.