Time series analysis system, time series analysis method, and time series analysis program

• US 20060217939A1
• Filed: 03/27/2006
• Published: 09/28/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 03/28/2005
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: NEC Corporation
• Original Assignee: NEC Corporation
• Inventors: Nakata, Takayuki, Takeuchi, Junichi
• Application Number:
  US11/389,086
• Publication Number:
  US 20060217939A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/189
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 17/18 for evaluating statistical data , e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis forecasting specially adapted for a specific administrative, business or logistic context G06Q10/04

Abstract

A time series analysis system can perform computation with a less amount of computation than before when a long-term trend component and a long-term cyclic component are handled, or when a plurality of cyclic components is handled. From input time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, long-term time series data of a different series using a plurality of time spans is prepared for each of the time spans. Then, the long-term time series data for each of the time spans is removed from the original time series data, thereby preparing short-term time series data. Then, by learning through probability statistic processing that uses the long-term time series data and the short-term time series data, a model having a time span optimal for prediction of the time series data is selected as an optimal model, and is used for prediction of the time series data.

Claims

1. A time series analysis system for inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis system comprising:

long-term time series setting unit of preparing long-term time series data of a different series using a plurality of time spans for each of the time spans, based on the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit and storing the resultant long-term time series data in said storage unit;

long-term time series removing unit of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans from the input time series data, by preparing short-term time series data corresponding to the removed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans, and storing the resultant short-term time series data in said storage unit; and

optimal model selection unit of selecting a model having a time span optimal for prediction of the time series data based on learning through probability statistic processing using said long-term time series data and said short-term time series data both stored in said storage unit.

3. The time series analysis system according to claim 1, wherein as a computation manner of the long-term time series data, one selected from the group consisting of polynomial regression model, Fourier analysis, wavelet, and base of the function space is employed.

5. The time series analysis system according to claim 1, wherein for said each of the time spans for computing the long-term time series data using the different time spans, a submultiple of a cycle length of a long cycle is employed.

6. The time series analysis system according to claim 1, wherein at least one of the learning from the long-term time series data and the learning from the short-term time series data is performed using a Karman filter and an EM algorithm.

7. The time series analysis system according to claim 1, further comprising:

time series prediction unit of performing the prediction of the time series data based on said optimal model selected by said optimal model selection unit and the long-term time series data and the short-term time series data, prepared using the time span of said optimal model.

2. A time series analysis system for inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis system comprising:

long-term time series setting unit of preparing from the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit long-term time series data of a different series as an average value for each of a plurality of time spans;

long-term time series removing unit of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans from the input time series data and preparing short-term time series data corresponding to the removed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans; and

optimal model selection unit of selecting a model having a time span optimal for the prediction of the time series data based on an information amount criterion computed corresponding to said each of the time spans by probability statistic processing using the long-term time series data and the short-term time series data both stored in said storage unit.

4. A time series analysis system for inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis system comprising:

long-term time series setting unit of computing long-term time series data of a different series as an average value for each of a plurality of time spans from the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit, learning a long-term trend component and a long-term cyclic component from the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans based on the computed long-term time series data and the long-term time series data read from said storage unit, and storing in said storage unit the input time series data, a result of the learning of a long-term time series for said each of the time spans, and the computed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans;

long-term time series removing unit of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans computed by said long time series setting unit from the original time series data, thereby computing short-term time series data corresponding to said each of the time spans;

short-term time series setting unit of learning a short-term time series component from the short-term time series data for said each of the time spans based on the short-term time series data computed by the long-term time series removing unit and the short-term time series data read from said storage unit, and storing in said storage unit a result of the learning of a short-term time series for said each of the time spans and the computed short-term time series data for said each of the time spans; and

optimal model selection unit of selecting a model having a time span optimal for the prediction of the time series data based on an information amount criterion computed corresponding to said each of the time spans by probability statistic processing using the long-term time series data and the result of learning thereof and the short-term time series data and the result of learning thereof, all stored in said storage unit.

8. A time series analysis method of inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis method comprising:

a long-term series setting step of preparing long-term time series data of a different series using a plurality of time spans for each of the time spans, based on the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit and storing the resultant long-term time series data in said storage unit;

a long-term series removing step of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans from the input time series data, preparing short-term time series data corresponding to the removed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans, and storing the resultant short-term time series data in said storage unit; and

an optical model selection step of selecting a model having a time span optimal for prediction of the time series data based on learning through probability statistic processing using said long-term time series data and said short-term time series data both stored in said storage unit.

10. The time series analysis method according to claim 8, wherein as a computation manner of the long-term time series data, one selected from the group consisting of polynomial regression model, Fourier analysis, wavelet, and base of the function space is employed.

12. The time series analysis method according to claim 8, wherein for said each of the time spans for computing the long-term time series data using the different time spans, a submultiple of a cycle length of a long cycle is employed.

13. The time series analysis method according to claim 8, wherein at least one of the learning from the long-term time series data and the learning from the short-term time series data is performed using a Karman filter and an EM algorithm.

14. The time series analysis method according to claim 8, further comprising:

a time series prediction step of performing prediction of the time series data based on said optimal model selected by said optimal model selection unit and the long-term time series data and the short-term time series data, prepared using the time span of said optimal model.

9. A time series analysis method of inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis method comprising:

a long-term series setting step of preparing from the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit long-term time series data of a different series as an average value for each of a plurality of time spans;

a long-term series removing step of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans from the input time series data and preparing short-term time series data corresponding to the removed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans; and

an optimal model selection step of selecting a model having a time span optimal for prediction of the time series data based on an information amount criterion computed corresponding to said each of the time spans by probability statistic processing using said long-term time series data and said short-term time series data both stored in said storage unit.

11. A time series analysis method of inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis method comprising:

a long-term time series setting step of computing long-term time series data of a different series as an average value for each of a plurality of time spans from the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit, learning a long-term trend component and a long-term cyclic component from the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans based on the computed long-term time series data and the long-term time series data read from said storage unit, and storing in said storage unit the input time series data, a result of the learning of the long-term time series for said each of the time spans, and the computed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans;

a long-term time series removing step of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans computed by said long time series setting unit from the original time series data, thereby computing short-term time series data corresponding to said each of the time spans;

a short-term time series setting step of learning a short-term time series component from the short-term time series data for said each time spans based on the short-term time series data computed by the long-term time series removing unit and the short-term time series data read from said storage unit, and storing in said storage unit a result of the learning of a short-term time series for said each of the time spans, and the computed short-term time series data for said each of the time spans; and

an optimal model selection step of selecting a model having a time span optimal for prediction of the time series data based on an information amount criterion computed corresponding to said each of the time spans by probability statistic processing using said long-term time series data and the result of learning thereof and said short-term time series data and the result of learning thereof, all stored in said storage unit.

15. A time series analysis program for a time series analysis system for inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis program causing said time series analysis system to perform the following steps comprising:

a long-term time series setting step of preparing long-term time series data of a different series using a plurality of time spans for each of the time spans, based on the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit and storing the prepared long-term time series data in said storage unit;

a long-term time series removing step of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans from the input time series data, preparing short-term time series data corresponding to the removed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans, and storing the short-term time series data in said storage unit; and

an optimal model selection step of selecting a model having a time span optimal for prediction of the time series data based on learning through probability statistic processing using the long-term time series data and the short-term time series data both stored in said storage unit.

17. The time series analysis program according to claim 15, wherein as a computation manner of the long-term time series data, one selected from the group consisting of polynomial regression model, Fourier analysis, wavelet, or base of the function space is employed.

19. The time series analysis program according to claim 15, wherein for said each of the time spans for computing the long-term time series data using the different time spans, a submultiple of a cycle length of a long cycle is employed.

20. The time series analysis program according to claim 15, wherein at least one of the learning from the long-term time series data and the learning from the short-term time series data is performed using a Karman filter and an EM algorithm.

21. The time series analysis program according to claim 15, causing said time series analysis system to further perform the following step:

a time series prediction step of performing prediction of the time series data based on said optimal model selected by said optimal model selection unit and the long-term time series data and the short-term time series data, prepared using the time span of said optimal model.

16. A time series analysis program for a time series analysis system for inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis program causing said time series analysis system to perform the following steps comprising:

a long-term time series setting step of preparing from the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit long-term time series data of a different series as an average value for each of a plurality of time spans;

a long-term time series removing step of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans from the input time series data and preparing short-term time series data corresponding to the removed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans; and

an optimal model selection step of selecting a model having a time span optimal for prediction of the time series data based on an information amount criterion computed corresponding to said each of the time spans by probability statistic processing using the long-term time series data and the short-term time series data both stored in said storage unit.

18. A time series analysis program for a time series analysis system for inputting time series data including a plurality of cyclic components, storing the time series data in a storage unit, and predicting a temporal tendency of the time series data, said time series analysis program causing said time series analysis system to perform the following steps comprising:

a long-term time series setting step of computing long-term time series data of a different series as an average value for each of a plurality of time spans from the input time series data and the time series data read from said storage unit, learning a long-term trend component and a long-term cyclic component from the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans based on the computed long-term time series data and the long-term time series data read from said storage unit, and storing in said storage unit the input time series data, a result of the learning of the long-term time series for said each of the time spans, and the computed long-term time series data for said each of the time spans;

a long-term time series removing step of removing the long-term time series data for said each of the time spans computed by said long time series setting unit from the original time series data, thereby computing short-term time series data corresponding to said each of the time spans;

a short-term time series setting step of learning a short-term time series component from the short-term time series data for said each of the time spans based on the short-term time series data computed by the long-term time series removing unit and the short-term time series data read from said storage unit, and storing in said storage unit a result of the learning of a short-term time series for said each of the time spans, and the computed short-term time series data for said each of the time spans; and

an optimal model selection step of selecting a model having a time span optimal for the prediction of the time series data based on an information amount criterion computed corresponding to said each of the time spans by probability statistic processing using the long-term time series data and the result of learning thereof and the short-term time series data and the result of learning thereof, all stored in said storage unit.