Predicting risk and return for a portfolio of entertainment projects
First Claim
1. A method for predicting the financial performance of a portfolio of film projects, the method comprising:
- identifying predictive characteristics for film projects in the portfolio; and
calculating a predicted risk and a predicted revenue for the portfolio of film projects according to a risk-return model that is based on locally weighted regression of revenue as a function of the predictive characteristics using past film projects as training data.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A portfolio of entertainment project such that the risk and return available to investors is attractive compared to other investments. Risk and return for a portfolio of entertainment projects is predicted based on historical performance of past “similar” projects. In one implementation, characteristics that are predictive of a project'"'"'s revenue are determined by performing a cluster analysis of historical revenues from past projects. Projects in the portfolio are classified into various segments based on these predictive characteristics. Projects are selected to contruct a portfolio. The risk and return for the portfolio is calculated according to a risk-return model that is based on historical risk and revenues for past projects in the same segment and further based on historical covariance of revenue for past projects in different segments.
76 Citations
19 Claims
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1. A method for predicting the financial performance of a portfolio of film projects, the method comprising:
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identifying predictive characteristics for film projects in the portfolio; and
calculating a predicted risk and a predicted revenue for the portfolio of film projects according to a risk-return model that is based on locally weighted regression of revenue as a function of the predictive characteristics using past film projects as training data. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. A method for assembling a portfolio of film projects, the method comprising:
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defining a target return for the portfolio of film projects;
determining whether a candidate film project contributes to achieving the target return and reducing risk of the portfolio, based on a risk-return model based on locally weighted regression of past film projects; and
acquiring rights to revenues from the candidate film project if determined that the candidate film project does contribute to achieving the target return and reducing risk of the portfolio. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16, 17)
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18. A system for for predicting the financial performance of a portfolio of film projects comprising:
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means for identifying predictive characteristics for film projects in the portfolio; and
means for calculating a predicted risk and a predicted revenue for the portfolio of film projects according to a risk-return model that is based on locally weighted regression of revenue as a function of the predictive characteristics using past film projects as projects of training data.
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19. A computer program product containing instructions for execution by a programmable processor to implement a method for predicting financial performance of a portfolio of film projects, the method comprising:
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identifying predictive characteristics for film projects in the portfolio of film projects according to a risk-return model that is based on locally weighted regression of revenue as a function of the predictive characteristics using past film projects as training data.
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Specification