Method and apparatus for estimating the spend capacity of consumers

• US 20060242039A1
• Filed: 10/29/2004
• Published: 10/26/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 10/29/2004
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. (American Express Company)
• Original Assignee: American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. (American Express Company)
• Inventors: Yuan, Chao M., Haggerty, Kathleen B.
• Granted Patent: US 7,788,147 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/10 specially adapted for electronic funds transfer [EFT] systems; specially adapted for home banking systems
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0211 Determining the effectiveness of discounts or incentives
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0224 based on user history
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof

Abstract

Time series consumer spending data, point-in-time balance information, internal customer financial data and consumer panel information provides input to a model for consumer spend behavior on plastic instruments or other financial accounts, from which approximations of spending ability may be reliably identified and utilized to promote additional consumer spending.

Claims

1. A method for modeling consumer behavior to estimate consumer spend, comprising:

receiving individual and aggregated consumer data including consumer panel data, tradeline data and internal customer data;

analyzing the individual and aggregated consumer data to determine spending behavior for at least one category of consumers

deriving a model of consumer spending patterns for the at least one category based on said analyzing; and

validating the model using consumer panel data.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

refining the model based on additional consumer panel data.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

receiving tradeline data for a plurality of accounts of an individual consumer over a previous period of time;

identifying any balance transfers into at least one of the plurality of accounts, based on the tradeline data;

discounting any spending identified for any of the plurality of accounts for any portion of the previous period of time in which a balance transfer to such account is identified; and

estimating a purchasing ability of the individual consumer based on the tradeline data, said discounting and the model.

4. The method of claim 3, said previous period of time comprising at least twelve months.

5. The method of claim 4, said portion of the previous period comprising one month.

6. The method of claim 3, said plurality of accounts including at least one of:

a credit card account, a charge card account, a line of credit, a checking account and a savings account.

7. The method of claim 3, said deriving a model further comprising:

determining at least two categories of customers based on the aggregated customer data, the first category including customers that primarily pay down credit account balances and the second category including customers that primarily revolve credit account balances;

8. The method of claim 7, further comprising:

assigning one of the first and second categories to the individual customer based on the tradeline data.

9. The method of claim 3, further comprising:

changing the terms of a credit account of the individual consumer based on said estimating.

10. The method of claim 9, said changing further comprising:

changing a credit limit of the credit account.

11. The method of claim 9, said changing further comprising:

providing a discount on a purchase to the customer when said estimating indicates an increase in the purchasing ability of the individual customer.

12. The method of claim 3, further comprising:

selecting the individual consumer from a set of customers that do not have a delinquent account status.

13. The method of claim 1, said validating further comprising:

validating the model using tradeline and consumer panel data of a plurality of consumers.

14. A method for estimating a purchasing ability of a consumer, comprising:

receiving tradeline data for a plurality of accounts of an individual consumer for a previous period of time;

identifying any balance transfers into at least one of the plurality of accounts, based on the tradeline data;

discounting any spending identified for any of the plurality of accounts for any portion of the previous period of time in which a balance transfer to such account is identified, and

estimating a purchasing ability of the individual consumer based on the tradeline data, said discounting and a model of consumer spending patterns derived from individual and aggregate consumer data including tradeline data, internal customer data and consumer panel data.

15. The method of claim 14, said previous period of time comprising at least twelve months.

16. The method of claim 14, said portion of the previous period comprising one month.

17. The method of claim 14, said estimating further comprising:

determining at least two categories of customers, the first category including customers that primarily pay down credit account balances and the second category including customers that primarily revolve credit account balances.

18. The method of claim 17, further comprising:

assigning one of the first and second categories to the individual customer based on the tradeline data.

19. The method of claim 18, further comprising:

changing the terms of a credit account of the individual based on said estimating and said assigning.

20. The method of claim 19, said changing further comprising:

increasing a credit limit of the credit account.

21. The method of claim 19, said changing further comprising:

providing a discount on a purchase to the individual consumer.

22. The method of claim 14, further comprising:

selecting the individual consumer from a set of customers that do not have a delinquent account status within the previous period of time.

23. An apparatus for estimating a purchasing ability of a consumer, comprising:

a processor; and

a memory in communication with the processor, the memory for storing a plurality of processing instructions for directing the processor to;

receive individual and aggregated consumer data including tradeline data, internal customer data and consumer panel data for a plurality of different consumers;

determine at least two categories of consumers based on the individual and aggregated consumer data, the first category including consumers that primarily pay down credit account balances and the second category including consumers that primarily revolve credit account balances;

model consumer spending patterns for each of the first and second categories based on the individual and aggregated consumer data;

receive tradeline data for a plurality of accounts of an individual consumer for a previous period of time;

identify any balance transfers into at least one of the plurality of accounts, based on the tradeline data;

discount any spending identified for any of the plurality of accounts for any portion of the previous period of time in which a balance transfer is identified;

assign one of the first and second categories to the individual based on the tradeline and consumer panel data, after said discounting;

estimate a purchasing ability of the individual consumer based on the assigned category, and the consumer spending pattern modeled for the assigned category; and

change the terms of a credit account of the individual based on said estimating.