System and method for graphically representing uncertainty in an assisted decision-making system

• US 20060294035A1
• Filed: 06/02/2005
• Published: 12/28/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 06/02/2005
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation (Northrop Grumman Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Northrop Grumman Corporation
• Inventors: Siegel, Neil, Lindeman, Robert
• Granted Patent: US 7,571,148 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/45
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/02 Knowledge representation; Symbolic representation

Abstract

Systems and methods are provided for graphically representing uncertainty in an assisted decision-making application. A database contains a class vector for each of a plurality of objects of interest. A given class vector includes a plurality of possible classes for its associated object of interest and a corresponding set of confidence values. The database also contains a set of assumptions associated with each confidence value. A user interface displays a plurality of graphics representing the objects of interest. A given graphic includes a set of at least two class icons, each corresponding to one of the plurality of classes associated with its corresponding object of interest. The graphic also includes a qualitative indication of the confidence values associated with the set of classes. The assumptions associated with a given confidence value are retrievable by a user by selecting the class icon associated with the confidence value.

Claims

1. A system for graphically representing uncertainty in an assisted decision-making application, comprising:

a database that contains a class vector for each of a plurality of objects of interest, wherein a given class vector includes a plurality of possible classes for its associated object of interest and a corresponding set of confidence values associated with the plurality of possible classes, the database further containing a set of at least one assumption associated with each confidence value; and

a user interface that displays a plurality of graphics representing the objects of interest, a given graphic including a set of at least two class icons, each corresponding to one of the plurality of possible classes associated with its corresponding object of interest, a qualitative indication of the confidence values associated with the plurality of possible classes, and a set of at least one assumption associated with a given confidence value.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the assumptions are displayed as a structured text list.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein the qualitative indication of a given confidence value comprises an associated saturation of the class icon associated with the confidence value.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the assumptions are displayed as a structured argument comprising a plurality of nodes, representing evidence and hypotheses associated with a given confidence value, and connectors that illustrate the logical relationships between the hypotheses.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein a belief value associated with a given hypothesis are indicated by a qualitative feature in a node associated with the hypothesis.

6. The system of claim 4, wherein the structured argument is executable, such that a new confidence value can be determined in response to a change in one of the belief values and influence values of the structured argument by a user.

7. The system of claim 1, wherein the graphical user interface displays a set of at least one assumption associated a given confidence value in response to the input from a user.

8. The system of claim 1, wherein the qualitative indication of a given confidence value comprises a bar graph.

9. The system of claim 1, wherein the user interface includes a map of a given area, and the objects of interest represent buildings, vehicles, and other structures within the area.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein the user interface displays designated areas in which reliable information is not available.

11. A computer readable medium comprising:

a database that stores a class vector for each of a plurality of objects of interest, wherein a given class vector includes a plurality of classes for its associated object of interest and a corresponding set of confidence values associated with the plurality of possible classes, the database further storing a set of assumptions associated with each confidence value; and

a graphical user interface that is operative to display a plurality of graphics representing the plurality of objects of interest, a given graphic including a set of at least two class icons, each corresponding to one of the plurality of classes associated with a corresponding object of interest, a qualitative indication of the confidence values associated with the set of classes, and a set of at least one assumption associated with a given confidence value.

12. The computer program product of claim 11, the graphical user interface being operative to receive input from a user and display the assumptions associated with a given confidence value in response to the input from the user.

13. The computer readable medium of claim 11, the set of assumptions associated with each confidence value being stored as an executable belief network, comprising a plurality of nodes, representing evidence and hypotheses associated with a given confidence value, and connectors that illustrate the logical relationships between the hypotheses, the connectors having associated influence values representing the strength of the relationship between connected hypotheses.

14. The computer readable medium of claim 13, wherein influence values associated with a given connector are indicated by a qualitative feature of the connector.

15. The computer readable medium of claim 14, wherein the qualitative feature is an alteration in one of the thickness and color of the connector.

16. The computer readable medium of claim 11, the graphic user interface further comprising a decluttering tool that limits the set of class icons displayed for a given object of interest.

17. The computer readable medium of claim 16, wherein the decluttering tool allows the user to set at least one selection criteria, the graphic user interface only displaying class icons representing classes meeting the at least one criteria.

18. The computer readable medium of claim 17, the at least one criteria including a threshold confidence value, such that class icons representing classes having an associated confidence Value less than the threshold confidence value are not displayed.

19. A method for displaying uncertain information in an assisted decision-making application, comprising:

displaying a plurality of icons representing a plurality of classes associated with an object of interest;

displaying a qualitative indication of respective confidence values associated with the plurality of classes; and

providing a set of assumptions associated with a given confidence value.

20. The method of claim 19, where the set of assumptions are provided in response to input from a user.

21. The method of claim 19, wherein displaying a qualitative indication of the confidence value associated with a given class includes altering one of the saturation, hue, and transparency of the icon associated with the class.

22. The method of claim 19, wherein providing a set of assumptions associated with a given confidence value includes displaying an executable belief network to the user.

23. The method of claim 22, further comprising recalculating the confidence value of a given class in response to input from a user.

24. The method of claim 19, wherein providing a set of assumptions associated with a given confidence value includes providing evidence associated with the confidence value as a structured text list.