Method and system for forecasting an amount of energy needed by an, in particular, industrial consumer from an energy supplier or energy vendor, and device for forecasting energy demand and its use for forecasting

• US 20070032911A1
• Filed: 07/28/2006
• Published: 02/08/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 07/29/2005
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: TechniData GmbH (SAP SE)
• Original Assignee: TechniData GmbH (SAP SE)
• Inventors: Clesle, Frank-Dieter, Saller, Gerhard
• Application Number:
  US11/495,924
• Publication Number:
  US 20070032911A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 700/291
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

The invention relates to a method, its use for forecasting the amount of energy needed by an, in particular, industrial consumer from an energy supplier or vendor, and to a corresponding system and a device for applying the method. The core concept of the invention is a forecasting method which comprises the following method steps: a. creating an initial data series from controlled variables of a future production process in a defined period at at least one consumer; b. determining at least one historical production process in the form of a target data series by comparing the initial data series created with data series from controlled variables of historical production processes; c. determining the historical energy load pattern corresponding to the historical production process determined; d. creating a forecasting plan by means of the historical energy load pattern determined.

Claims

1. A method for forecasting the amount of energy needed by an, in particular, industrial consumer from an energy supplier or an energy vendor, comprising the following method steps:

a. creating an initial data series from controlled variables of a future production process in a defined period (t) at at least one consumer;

b. determining at least one historical production process in the form of a target data series by comparing the initial data series created with data series from controlled variables of historical production processes;

c. determining the historical energy load pattern corresponding to the historical production process determined;

d. creating a forecasting plan by means of the historical energy load pattern determined;

e, conveying the forecasting plan created to an energy supplier or vendor by listing the amount of energy in dependency of time.

2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the target data series to be determined can be located with a definable deviation tolerance range with respect to the initial data series.

4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein at least one of the following method steps is optionally carried out with processor support:

a. creating the initial data series,

b. determining the target data series,

c. creating the forecasting plan,

d. conveying the forecasting plan.

5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the amount of energy delivered by the energy supplier or energy vendor is stored in a data processing device.

7. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein, in conjunction with the creation of the amount of energy forecast, a listing about the costs of the amount of energy needed is also made.

8. The method as claimed in claim 7, wherein the forecasting plan is optimized with respect to energy costs, time of energy request or delivery or the amount of energy procured.

9. The method as claimed in claim 7, wherein the amount of energy needed is optimized with respect to production planning or with respect to the method for producing the products.

10. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein a number of consumers are combined to form one group for creating the forecasting plan.

3. A method for forecasting the amount of energy needed by an, in particular, industrial consumer from an energy supplier or an energy vendor, comprising the following method steps:

a. creating an initial data series from controlled variables of a future production process in a defined period (t) at at least one consumer;

b. determining at least one historical production process in the form of a target data series by comparing the initial data series created with data series from controlled variables of historical production processes;

c. determining the historical energy load pattern corresponding to the historical production process determined;

d. creating a forecasting plan by means of the historical energy load pattern determined;

e. conveying the forecasting plan created to an energy supplier or vendor by listing the amount of energy in dependency of time and

at least one further initial data series is created from other controlled variables;

at least one further target data series is determined by means of this further initial data series;

all target data series determined are compared with one another as determined by a defined deviation tolerance and

the target data series which has the least deviation from a defined ideal data series is determined.

6. A method for forecasting the amount of energy needed by an, in particular, industrial consumer from an energy supplier or an energy vendor, comprising the following method steps:

a. creating an inital data series from controlled variable of a future production process in a defined period (t) at at least one consumer;

b. determining at least one historical production process in the form of a target data series by comparing the inital data series created with data series from controlled variables of historical production processes;

c. determing the historical energy load pattern corresponding to the historical production process determined;

d. creating a forecasting plan by means of the historical energy load pattern determined;

e. conveying the forecasting plan created to an energy supplier or vendor by listing the amount of energy in dependency of time and

together with the creation of a first forecasting plan by means of the energy load pattern found, at least one further forecasting plan is created by means of a further energy forecasting method, and the consumer makes an advantageous selection according to the criteria of the availability of the amounts of energy determined or of the plausibility of the forecasting plan created from these forecasting plans, the plausibility being determined by comparing the nominal amounts of energy forecast with the actual amounts of energy actually procured.

11. A system for forecasting the amounts of energy needed by an, in particular, industrial consumer from an energy supplier or in enerby vendor, comprising the following method steps:

a. creating an initial data series from controlled variables of a future production process in a defined period (t) at at least one consumer;

b. determing at least one historical production process in the form of a target data series by comparing the initial data series created with data series from controlled variable of historical production processes;

c. determining the historical energy load pattern corresponding to the historical production process determined;

d. creating a forecasting plan by means of the historial energy load pattern determined;

conveying the forecasting plan created to an energy supplier or vendor by listing the amount of energy in dependency of time.

12. A device for forecasting an amount of energy needed by an, in particular, industrial consumer from an energy supplier or an energy vendor, particularly for carrying out the method, comprising following steps:

a. creating an initial data series from controlled variables of a future production process in a defined period (t) at at least one consumer;

b. determining at least one historical production process in the form of a target data series by comparing the initial data series created with data series from controlled variables of historical production processes;

c. determining the historical energy load pattern corresponding to the historical production process determined;

d. creating a forecasting plan by means of the historical energy load pattern determined;

e. conveying the forecasting plan created by an energy supplier or vendor by listing the amount of energy in dependency of time. wherein

a database with data series consisting of controlled variables of historical production processes

a processor chip for aligning historical data series with at least one initial data series consisting of controlled variables of a future production process.

13. The device as claimed in claim 12, comprising at least one further processor chip and a correlation processor.

14. The use of a method consisting of the following method steps:

a. creating an initial data series from controlled variables of a future production process in a defined period at at least one consumer;

b. determining at least one historical production process in the form of a target data series by comparing the initial data series created with data series from controlled variables of historical production processes;

c. determining the historical energy load pattern corresponding to the historical production process determined;

d. creating a forecasting plan by means of the historical energy load pattern determined;

e. conveying the forecasting plan created to an energy supplier or vendor by listing the amount of energy in dependency of time;

for forecasting the amounts of energy needed by an, in particular, industrial consumer from an energy supplier or an energy vendor.