Method and device for predicting a failure frequency

• US 20070035901A1
• Filed: 07/06/2004
• Published: 02/15/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 07/10/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Daimler AG (Mercedes-Benz Group AG)
• Original Assignee: Daimler AG (Mercedes-Benz Group AG)
• Inventors: Albrecht, Volker, Odermatt, Stefan
• Granted Patent: US 7,627,452 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 361/61
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0283 Predictive maintenance, e.g. involving the monitoring of a system and, based on the monitoring results, taking decisions on the maintenance schedule of the monitored system; Estimating remaining useful life [RUL] preventive maintenance, i.e. planning maintenance according to the available resources without monitoring the system G06Q10/06

Abstract

A device and a method for predicting the mean time period between two failures of a technical system, for example a manufacturing system or an assembly system for motor vehicle components. The device includes a components list (130.1, 130.2). Those components of the technical system which are included in this components list are the maintenance-intensive components. Every failure of a component of the list leads to a failure of the system. Furthermore, the device includes an apparatus for acquiring setpoint MTBF values of all the components of the list. A setpoint MTBF value of a component is a requested or planned mean time period between two failures of this component. The apparatus predicts the planned mean time period between two failures of the technical system as a function of the setpoint MTBF values of the components.

Claims

1-15. -15. (canceled)

16. A device for predicting the mean time period between two failures of a technical system, the device comprising:

an electronic components list listing all of the maintenance-intensive components of the technical system, with each failure of a component on the list leading to a failure of the system,

an apparatus for acquiring setpoint MTBF values for the components of the components list,

an apparatus for summing all reciprocal values of the setpoint MTBF values acquired for the components of the components list, and

an apparatus for calculating a reciprocal value of the sum of the reciprocal values of the setpoint MTBF values, with the reciprocal value of the sum defining a mean time period to be predicted between two failures of the technical system.

17. The device as claimed in claim 16 wherein the device comprises:

an apparatus for acquiring setpoint MTTR values for the components of the components list, and an apparatus for predicting a mean time period for fault recovery after the failure of the technical system, the apparatus calculating the mean time period as a weighted mean of the acquired setpoint MTTR values of the components of the components list,

the reciprocal values of the setpoint MTBF values of the components of the components list being used as weighting factors.

18. The device as claimed in claim 17 wherein the apparatus for acquiring the setpoint MTTR values comprises means for acquiring setpoint MRT values and setpoint MTD values of the components of the components list and means for calculating the setpoint MTTR value of a component by summing the setpoint MRT value and the setpoint MTD value of the component.

19. The device as claimed in claim 16 further comprising:

an electronic parts list describing a decomposition of the system into components,

an apparatus for characterizing a component as maintenance intensive, and

an apparatus for generating the electronic components list by determining all the components of the parts list characterized as maintenance intensive.

20. The device as claimed in claims 16 wherein the electronic components list is valid for a category of technical systems carrying out similar functions, and further comprising an apparatus for generating a comparison of a plurality of systems of the category, the comparison comprising the mean time period, predicted for each system, between two failures of the system.

21. The device as claimed in claim 20 wherein the comparison-generating apparatus comprises means for generating in each case one partial comparison of the predicted failure frequencies for each component of the components list in the plurality of systems.

22. The device as claimed in claim 19 wherein the electronic parts list is valid for a category of technical systems carrying out similar functions.

23. A method for predicting a mean time period between two failures of a technical system, an electronic components list being predefined, the electronic components list comprising maintenance-intensive components of the technical system in which each failure of a component of the components list leads to a failure of the system, the method comprising the following steps carried out using an electronic data processing system:

acquiring of a setpoint MTBF value for each component of the components list,

summing of all reciprocal values of the setpoint MTBF values acquired for the components of the components list, and

using a reciprocal value of the sum of the reciprocal values as a mean time period predicted between two failures of the technical system.

24. The method as claimed in claim 23 further comprising:

additionally acquiring a setpoint MTTR value for each component of the components list, and

calculating of a prediction of a mean time period for fault recovery in the technical system as a weighted mean of the acquired setpoint MTTR values of the components of the components list, the reciprocal values of the setpoint MTBF values of the components of the components list being used as weighting factors.

25. The method as claimed in claim 24 wherein when the setpoint MTTR value of at least one component is acquired the following steps are carried out:

acquiring of a setpoint MRT value and of a setpoint MTD value of this component, and

using the sum of the setpoint MRT value and setpoint MTD value of this component as the setpoint MTTR value of this component.

26. The method according to claim 23 wherein the components list is valid for a category of technical systems which carry out the same functions, the prediction is made for a plurality of systems of the category, and a comparison of the predicted failure frequencies and down times of the plurality of systems is generated.

27. The method as claimed in claim 26 wherein a partial comparison of the predicted failure frequencies and down times in the plurality of systems is generated for each component of the components list during the generation of the comparison and is inserted into the comparison.

28. The method as claimed in claim 23 wherein, for each component of the components list,

actual times at which one of the components fails are logged, and

the one component is compared with the acquired setpoint MTBF value.

29. A computer program product loadable directly into an internal memory of a computer and comprises software sections with which a method as claimed in claim 23 can be carried out when the product is running on a computer.

30. A computer program product which is stored in a medium readable by a computer, and which has a programming means which can be read by a computer, said means causing the computer to carry out the method as claimed in claim 23.