System and method for predicting device deterioration
First Claim
1. A deterioration prediction system for predicting deterioration in an mechanical device, the system comprising:
- a health model for the mechanical device, the health model including a plurality of health states adapted for modeling the mechanical device, wherein the health model uses a Poisson distribution to model a rate of intrinsic damage accumulation in the mechanical device; and
a state estimator, the state estimator adapted to receive periodic device data for the mechanical device, the state estimator further adapted to estimate values for the plurality of health states based on the device data, wherein the estimated values for the plurality of health states provides a prediction of deterioration in the mechanical device.
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Abstract
A system and method is provided for predicting deterioration in a mechanical device. The deterioration prediction system and method includes a dynamic model of the mechanical device and a state estimator to predict deterioration in a mechanical device. The dynamic model includes a plurality of evolving health states that describe the performance of the mechanical device. The dynamic model can be implemented such that several distinct factors contribute the evolution of the health states. These factors can include damage accumulation, interaction between components in the device, deviation from design conditions, and the influence of discrete events. In one embodiment, the dynamic model uses a Poisson distribution to model the rate of damage accumulation in the mechanical device.
46 Citations
20 Claims
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1. A deterioration prediction system for predicting deterioration in an mechanical device, the system comprising:
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a health model for the mechanical device, the health model including a plurality of health states adapted for modeling the mechanical device, wherein the health model uses a Poisson distribution to model a rate of intrinsic damage accumulation in the mechanical device; and
a state estimator, the state estimator adapted to receive periodic device data for the mechanical device, the state estimator further adapted to estimate values for the plurality of health states based on the device data, wherein the estimated values for the plurality of health states provides a prediction of deterioration in the mechanical device. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. A method of predicting deterioration in a mechanical device, the method comprising the steps of:
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a) providing a health model for the mechanical device, the health model including a plurality of health states for modeling the mechanical device, wherein the health model uses a Poisson distribution to model damage accumulation in the mechanical device;
b) receiving device data for the mechanical device;
c) estimating values for the plurality of health states based on the device data; and
d) generating a prediction of deterioration in the mechanical device from the estimated values for the plurality of health states. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16, 17)
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18. A program product comprising:
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a) a deterioration prediction program for predicting deterioration in a mechanical device, the program including;
a health model for the mechanical device, the health model including a plurality of health states adapted for modeling the mechanical device, the health model using a Poisson distribution to model damage accumulation in the mechanical device; and
a state estimator, the state estimator adapted to receive periodic device data for the mechanical device, the state estimator further adapted to estimate values for the plurality of health states based on the device data, wherein the estimated values for the plurality of health states provides a prediction of deterioration in the mechanical device; and
b) computer-readable signal bearing media bearing said program. - View Dependent Claims (19, 20)
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Specification