MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL FORECASTING SYSTEM, METHOD AND SOFTWARE

• US 20070156479A1
• Filed: 11/02/2006
• Published: 07/05/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 11/02/2005
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Erik Long
• Original Assignee: Erik Long
• Inventors: Long, Erik
• Application Number:
  US11/556,109
• Publication Number:
  US 20070156479A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

The software, methods and system of the current invention creates an interactive, auto-execution financial trading platform with unique forecasting algorithms, trading graphs and data mining features. The platform uses a univariate and multivariate architecture that is designed to improve performance of predictors and speed up calculations. Trading graphs, data mining features and predictive algorithms are predominantly based on fractal mathematics and Chaos theory. Even the unique software architecture is fractal in nature. All of these features are intended to be used individually or collectively to improve forecasting performance of financial markets. The above mentioned components also make it easier to manage a portfolio of securities and/or futures.

Claims

1. A computer program product, wherein on a computer readable medium a plurality of computer program codes are embodied in the medium and a computer executes the plurality of computer program codes to produce the computer program product, comprising:

a plurality of data feeds;

a plurality of random and chaotic data vehicles;

a first computer readable program code for communications connectivity and data feed access;

a second computer readable program code to identify and track user defined data vehicles of interest;

a third computer readable program code for performing statistical analysis and forecast modeling using univariate and unlimited dimension multivariate analysis algorithms and fractal metanet architecture based algorithms of at least one type of data selected from the plurality of random and chaotic data vehicles received from the plurality of data feeds, and produce an output of statistical data related to the plurality of random and chaotic data vehicles;

a fourth computer readable program code for risk assessment the plurality of random and chaotic data vehicles;

a fifth computer readable program code for comparing the output of statistical data by the computer program product to a set of user defined parameters and executing instructions based on the user defined parameters, as well as electronically executing a user configured instruction set for at least one of manually and automatically displaying and reporting of the statistically analyzed data;

a sixth computer readable program code for integration of additional program codes and third party developed applications; and

,

a seventh computer readable program code for charting and displaying computer program product.

2. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 1, wherein at least one of the plurality of random and chaotic data vehicles and user selected data vehicles of interest, from the plurality of data feeds, is financial data.

3. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 2, wherein the financial data is selected from commodities.

4. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 1, wherein the plurality of data vehicles are analyzed/forecast modeled over a user-defined period of time.

5. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 1, wherein the second computer readable program code further tracks, updates and stores user selected preferences and instructions.

6. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 1, wherein the third computer readable program code further comprises three main parts:

input data, output model and a forecasting algorithm.

7. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 1, wherein the fourth computer readable program code further comprises artificial intelligence allowing combinations of various forecasting algorithms, predictors, filters, tests and the like, the program code artificial intelligence capable of identifying and applying best combination of algorithms, predictors, filters, tests, for the selected financial data vehicles, according to user defined preferences and instructions.

10. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 1, wherein the fourth computer readable program code further comprises a program code for model verification using back forecasting.

11. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 10, wherein the time intervals used in model verification are identical to the user-defined time period used in analyzing/forecast modeling data received from the data feed.

12. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 1, wherein the seventh computer readable program code further comprises a program code for three-dimensional real time tracking of bid/ask data according to user defined data vehicles of interest and user defined instruction sets.

13. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 12, wherein the seventh computer readable program code further comprises a program code for identifying the phase space and price attractors in one of the user selected data feeds.

14. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 15, wherein the seventh computer readable program code further charts and electronically displays statistically analyzed data selected from a group consisting of;

graphs, charts, tables, multilevel models, three dimensional charts, five dimensional charts, fractal charts, price attractor cube, and multi-scale tables, wherein the user may select a display form to include at least one of confidence estimates, projected price targets, three dimensional fractal price attractors and fractal candles.

15. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 16, wherein the sixth computer readable program code further comprises a program code for unattended automated operation and auto-execute capability providing data vehicle forecasting and trading functionality in the absence of continued human interaction.

16. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 1, wherein the analyzed data is displayed according to user configured instructions on one at least one of an electronic display and printed media.

8. The computer readable program code, as recited in 1, wherein the third computer readable program code further comprises a program code multilevel univariate, multivariate and fractal metanet based analysis.

9. The computer readable program code, as recited in claim 8, wherein the results of the multilevel analysis are analyzed and mined for trading opportunities.

17. A random and chaotic data vehicle forecasting method comprising the steps of:

inputting data feeds from a plurality of random and chaotic data vehicles;

inputting a user profile to include user selected data vehicles from the plurality of random and chaotic data vehicles;

analyzing and forecast modeling of the user selected data vehicles received from the data feeds, using univariate and unlimited dimension multivariate statistical analysis, wherein the analyzing and forecast modeling includes access to the plurality of data feeds, identifying and tracking the user selected data vehicles of interest, performing statistical analysis and forecast modeling using fractal metanet architecture based algorithms, and performing risk assessment forecasts on the user selected data vehicles; and

,

displaying results of the analyzing and forecast modeling step.

18. The method, as recited in claim 17, wherein the plurality of random and chaotic data vehicles are financial data and the user profile further includes financial trading indicators and user defined trading instructions.

19. The method, as recited in claim 18, wherein the financial data is selected from commodities.

20. The method, as recited in claim 18, further comprising the steps of:

comparing the analyzing and forecast modeling step to the financial trading indicators of the inputting user profile step; and

,

executing the user defined trading instructions in the inputting user profile step.

21. The method, as recited in claim 17, wherein the analyzing and forecast modeling step further comprises multilevel univariate, multivariate and fractal metanet architecture based algorithms.

22. The method, as recited in claim 21, wherein the results of the multilevel analysis are analyzed and mined for trading opportunities.

23. The method, as recited in claim 17, wherein the risk assessment of the analyzing and forecast modeling step uses an artificial intelligence system, which determines the best forecasting technique for each of the plurality of data vehicles from the user selected data vehicles of interest.

24. The method, as recited in claim 17, wherein the analyzing and forecast modeling step further comprises a model verification using back forecasting having time intervals to a user-defined time period for analyzing and forecast modeling of the plurality of data vehicles received from the user selected data vehicles.

25. The method, as recited in claim 17, wherein the analyzing and forecast modeling step further comprises three-dimensional real time tracking of bid and ask data according to the user selected data vehicles of interest and user defined instruction from the inputting a user profile step.

26. The method, as recited in claim 17, wherein the steps are executed on a device containing a computer processor of at least one of a computer, a main frame, personal digital assistant (PDA) and a Smartphone.

27. A multivariate financial statistical forecasting system comprising:

a computer program, wherein on a computer readable medium a plurality of computer program codes are embodied in the medium and a computer executes the plurality of computer program codes to produce the multivariate financial statistical forecasting system;

a plurality of financial data feeds;

a plurality of random and chaotic financial data vehicles;

a first computer readable program code for communications connectivity and financial data feed access;

a second computer readable program code to identify and track user defined financial data vehicles of interest;

a third computer readable program code for performing statistical analysis and forecast modeling using univariate and unlimited dimension multivariate analysis algorithms and fractal metanet architecture based algorithms of at least one type of data selected from the plurality of random and chaotic financial data vehicles received from the plurality of financial data feeds, and produce an output of statistical data related to the plurality of random and chaotic financial data vehicles;

a fourth computer readable program code for risk assessment the plurality of random and chaotic financial data vehicles;

a fifth computer readable program code for comparing the output of statistical data by the computer program product to a set of user defined parameters and executing instructions based on the user defined parameters, as well as electronically executing a user configured instruction set for at least one of manually and automatically displaying and reporting of the statistically analyzed data;

a sixth computer readable program code for integration of additional program codes and third party developed applications; and

,

a seventh computer readable program code for charting and displaying computer program product.

28. A method of providing a financial vehicle trading system comprising:

a computer readable program product, wherein the computer readable program product comprises a computer usable medium having computer readable program code means embodied in said medium for causing an application program to execute on a computer that receives at least one data feed, said computer program product performing;

univariate, multivariate, and fractal based analysis for statistical forecasting of at least one type of data selected from;

random and chaotic data vehicles received from at least one data feeds, and output of the statistical data related to the data vehicles of interest as well as electronically executing user configured instruction sets for displaying and reporting of said statistically analyzed data, said computer readable program code means comprising;

a first computer readable program code providing communications connectivity to a data feed;

a second computer readable program code to identify and track user defined data vehicles of interest;

a third computer readable program code means for performing statistical analysis and forecast modeling using univariate and unlimited dimension multivariate analysis algorithms and fractal metanet architecture based algorithms and program coding;

a fourth computer readable program code means for risk assessment financial vehicle forecasts;

a fifth computer readable program code means for comparing the data forecast by the computer readable program code to user defined parameters and executing instruction sets based on user defined data analysis parameters;

a sixth computer readable program code means for charting and displaying statistically analyzed data;

a seventh computer readable program code for integration of additional program codes and third party developed applications (Application Programming Interface);

a fractal metanet server;

a communications path;

memory;

user input controls;

a display; and

a processor, wherein the method comprises the steps of;

receiving financial data feed;

associating financial data feed with locally stored portfolio information;

analyzing/forecast modeling financial data according to user input;

assessing/managing risk of the forecast financial data;

displaying results of financial analysis according to user defined instructions;

comparing financial data analysis to user defined financial trading instructions; and

,

executing user defined trading instructions.

29. The financial vehicle trading system, as recited in claim 28, wherein at least one display is selected from the group consisting of;

video display;

touch sensitive screen;

LCD display;

flat panel display;

CRT;

monitor; and

printed media.

30. The financial vehicle trading system, as recited in claim 28, wherein the communications path is selected from the group consisting of;

Internet, broadband Internet, wireless broadband Internet, telephony, wireless telephony, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL), satellite Internet, and World Wide Web.

31. The financial vehicle trading system, as recited in claim 28, wherein the user input controls are selected from the group consisting of;

keyboard, mouse, touch sensitive screen, pointer, PDA stylus, keypad, and a tablet.

32. The financial vehicle trading system, as recited in claim 28, further comprising three-dimensional real time tracking of bid and ask data according to user defined data vehicles of interest and user defined instruction sets.

33. The financial vehicle trading system, as recited in claim 28, wherein the three dimensional real time data tracking is presented using at least one of The Lag Relay Cube and The Price Attractor Cube.

34. The financial vehicle trading system, as recited in claim 28, wherein the user defined display instructions display the output forecasting data using at least one of the forms selected from the group consisting of graphs, charts, tables, multilevel models, three dimensional charts, five dimensional charts, fractal charts, price attractor cube, and multi-scale tables, the display forms including confidence estimates, projected price targets, three dimensional fractal price attractors, and fractal candles.

35. The financial trading vehicle trading system, as recited in claim 28, further comprising unattended automated operation and auto-execute capability providing financial data vehicle forecasting and trading functionality in the absence of continued human interaction