Computer based system to generate data for implementing regional and metropolitan economic, land use and transportation planning

• US 20070162372A1
• Filed: 12/27/2006
• Published: 07/12/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 12/27/2005
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Alex Anas
• Original Assignee: Alex Anas
• Inventors: Anas, Alex
• Granted Patent: US 7,970,642 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes

Abstract

The present invention comprises a method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area having a plurality of economic zones, the method includes the steps of: a) receiving a set of calibration values from a first input device; b) calculating a set of calibration constants with a first arithmetic logic unit; c) receiving a set of initial values for a set of desired outputs from a second input device, wherein the set of desired outputs includes regional economic, land use and transportation outputs; d) calculating the regional economic and land use outputs with a second arithmetic logic unit, wherein the regional economic and land use outputs include a first group of variable travel demands; e) calculating an origin to destination matrix with a third arithmetic logic unit, wherein the origin to destination matrix includes two-way daily person trips between an origin economic zone and a destination economic zone; f) calculating the transportation outputs with a fourth arithmetic logic unit, wherein the transportation outputs include a second group of variable travel demands; h) repeating steps d) through f) until the first group of variable travel demands is substantially the same as the second group of variable travel demands; and, g) providing the set of desired outputs to an output device.

Claims

1. A method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area having a plurality of economic zones, said method comprising the steps of:

a) receiving a set of calibration values from a first input device;

b) calculating a set of calibration constants with a first arithmetic logic unit;

c) receiving a set of initial values for a set of desired outputs from a second input device, wherein said set of desired outputs comprises regional economic, land use and transportation outputs;

d) calculating said regional economic and land use outputs with a second arithmetic logic unit, wherein said regional economic and land use outputs comprise a first group of variable travel demands;

e) calculating an origin to destination matrix with a third arithmetic logic unit, wherein said origin to destination matrix comprises two-way daily person trips between an origin economic zone and a destination economic zone;

f) calculating said transportation outputs with a fourth arithmetic logic unit, wherein said transportation outputs comprise a second group of variable travel demands;

h) repeating steps d) through f) until said first group of variable travel demands is substantially the same as said second group of variable travel demands; and

,

g) providing said set of desired outputs to an output device.

2. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said method is arranged to respond to said first and second group of travel demands.

3. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein interrelations of said regional economic, land use and transportation outputs are solved simultaneously to calculate an equilibrium between said regional economic, land use and transportation outputs.

4. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said set of calibration constants is calculated by a method comprising the steps of:

a) calculating after tax wages with said first arithmetic logic unit;

b) calculating non-wage incomes with said first arithmetic logic unit;

c) calculating labor supplies and places of employment by skill levels with said first arithmetic logic unit;

d) calculating full incomes, residential floor space demands and full choice probabilities for workers with said first arithmetic logic unit;

e) calculating residential floor space demands and full choice probabilities for non-workers with said first arithmetic logic unit;

f) calculating aggregate residential floor space demands and structural densities with said first arithmetic logic unit;

g) calculating aggregate labor demands by distributing labor supplies by skill levels among industries in each economic zone and initialization of aggregate building demands with said first arithmetic logic unit;

h) calculating initial floor space stocks and structural densities with said first arithmetic logic unit;

i) calculating construction and demolition probabilities with said first arithmetic logic unit;

j) calculating unit prices and real and nominal outputs for construction and demolition with said first arithmetic logic unit;

k) calculating labor demands of construction and demolition industries and adjusted labor demands of other industries with said first arithmetic logic unit;

m) calculating nominal outputs of primary industries and updated structural densities with said first arithmetic logic unit;

n) repeating steps i) through m) until said structural densities converge;

o) calculating leading terms of price equations with said first arithmetic logic unit;

p) calculating labor demand constants with said first arithmetic logic unit;

q) calculating building demand constants with said first arithmetic logic unit;

r) calculating retail demands with said first arithmetic logic unit, wherein said retail demands comprise trip quantities and demanded retail goods;

s) repeating steps a) through r) until non-negative retail exports converge;

t) calculating delivered prices of intermediate inputs and initial input demand constants with said first arithmetic logic unit;

u) calculating intermediate goods demands and net exports of non-retail industries with said first arithmetic logic unit;

v) repeating step u) until said calculated intermediate goods demands and net exports of non-retail industries converge;

w) calculating scale factors for industries with said first arithmetic logic unit;

x) calculating a total asset income, outside incomes and earned income shares with said first arithmetic logic unit;

y) calculating occupancy dispersion parameters and constants with said first arithmetic logic unit;

z) calculating dispersion parameters of construction and demolition with said first arithmetic logic unit;

aa) calculating constants of construction and demolition with said first arithmetic logic unit;

ab) calculating constants of retail demand functions with said first arithmetic logic unit;

ac) calculating constant effects and dispersion of worker and non-worker choice probabilities with said first arithmetic logic unit; and

,

ad) calculating constant effects and dispersions in mode choice with said first arithmetic logic unit.

5. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said set of initial values comprises product prices, industry outputs, wages, rents, real estate asset values and stationary real estate stocks.

6. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said regional economic and land use outputs are calculated by a method comprising the steps of:

a) calculating product prices with said second arithmetic logic unit;

b) calculating industry outputs with said second arithmetic logic unit;

c) calculating wages with said second arithmetic logic unit;

d) calculating rents with said second arithmetic logic unit;

e) calculating real estate asset values with said second arithmetic logic unit;

f) calculating stationary real estate stocks with said second arithmetic logic unit; and

,

g) repeating steps a) through f) until said prices, outputs, wages, rents, values and stocks converge, and until excess demands and economic profits converge.

7. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said regional economic and land use outputs comprise product prices, industry outputs, wages, rents, real estate asset values and stationary real estate stocks.

8. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 7 wherein said regional economic and land use outputs further comprise excess demands and economic profits.

9. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 7 wherein said regional economic and land use outputs further comprise expected travel times and expected travel monetary costs.

10. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said origin to destination matrix is calculated according to the equation:

$\begin{array}{c}{\mathrm{RELUTRIPS}}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\left(\underset{\forall <br><br>f}{\sum <br><br>}<br><br>N_f<br><br>\underset{k=1}{\overset{{\mathrm{\aleph <br><br>}}_1}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br>P_{\mathrm{ijk}|f}\right)+\\ \left(\frac{1}{d}\right)<br><br>\left(\underset{\forall <br><br>f}{\sum <br><br>}<br><br>N_f<br><br>\underset{s=0}{\overset{{\mathrm{??}}^{\mathrm{\prime <br><br>}}}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br>\underset{k=1}{\overset{{\mathrm{\aleph <br><br>}}_1}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br>P_{\mathrm{isk}|f}<br><br>c_{\mathrm{isf}}<br><br>Z_{j|\mathrm{isf}}\right);<br><br>\\ j><br><br>0,i=1<br><br>\text{\hspace{1em}<br><br>}<br><br>\mathrm{\dots <br><br>}<br><br>\text{\hspace{1em}<br><br>}<br><br>{\mathrm{??}}^{\mathrm{\prime <br><br>}},\end{array}$

where P_ijk|f=P_ijk|f(p_R, R, w, M_f, G, g) and Z_j|isf=Z_j|isf(p_R, w_sf, M_f, G_is, g_is G_i, g_i).

11. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said transportation outputs are calculated by a method comprising the steps of:

a) calculating auto mode probabilities with said third arithmetic logic unit;

b) calculating route choices and network equilibrium flows with said third arithmetic logic unit;

c) repeating step b) until said route choices and network equilibrium flows converge;

d) calculating congested highway link travel times with said third arithmetic logic unit; and

,

e) calculating zone to zone expected travel times and costs with said third arithmetic logic unit.

12. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said transportation outputs comprise zone to zone expected travel times and costs.

13. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 12 wherein said transportation outputs further comprise auto mode probabilities, route choices, network equilibrium flows and congested highway link travel times.

14. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein at least two of said first, second, third and fourth arithmetic logic units are the same.

15. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said first and second input devices are the same.

16. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein at least one of said first and second input devices is a keyboard, a memory storage device or an optical device.

17. The method for forecasting future economic conditions, land utilization and transportation network utilization and performance of a metropolitan area of claim 1 wherein said output device is a computer monitor, a computer printout or a memory storage device.