Embedded performance forecasting of network devices

• US 20070192065A1
• Filed: 02/14/2006
• Published: 08/16/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 02/14/2006
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Sun Microsystems Incorporated (Oracle Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Sun Microsystems Incorporated (Oracle Corporation)
• Inventors: Riggs, Jamie, Lehan, Michael
• Application Number:
  US11/353,350
• Publication Number:
  US 20070192065A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/189
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/06 Management of faults, events, alarms or notifications
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/147 for predicting network behaviour
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/5025 by proactively reacting to service quality change, e.g. by reconfiguration after service quality degradation or upgrade

Abstract

A forecast engine is embedded in a networked device or in network component wherein the embedded forecast engine receives collected data concerning the device and applies forecasting techniques and methodologies to generate event forecasts particular to that device. The event forecasts are generated using device specific parameters and device specific time series to ascertain an event forecast that is representative of event pertinent to that device. Once generated, the event forecast is communicated to a central event manager which analyzes the forecast of each of the devices individually and as a member of the network so as to determine appropriate action to ensure and/or enhance network performance.

Claims

1. A method for managing forecasted events of at least one device in a network, the method comprising the steps of:

embedding in each device a forecast engine, wherein each forecast engine collects device specific performance data and analyzes the device specific performance data;

determining at each device, a forecast of an event for the device based on the analysis of device specific performance data;

communicating the forecast of the event of each device to a central event manager;

analyzing the event forecast of each device; and

responsive to analyzing the events forecast of each device, modifying the network providing proactive device intervention.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the forecast engine for each device is a statistically-based engine and wherein the forecast engine is selected based on device functionality.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein analyzing includes determining event trend information for each device.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein analyzing includes determining event trend information for the network based on individual device forecasted events.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein the event comprises failure of the device and wherein modifying includes repairing or replacing the at least one device forecasted to fail prior to device failure.

6. The method of claim 5 wherein modifying includes altering tasks assigned to the at least one device forecasted to fail prior to device failure.

7. The method of claim 5 wherein modifying includes changing memory assignments of the at least one device forecasted to fail prior to device failure.

8. At least one computer-readable medium containing a computer program product for managing forecasted events of at least one device in a network, the computer program product comprising:

program code for embedding in each device a statistically-based forecast engine, wherein each forecast engine collects device specific performance data and analyzes the device specific performance data;

program code for determining at each device, a forecast of an event of the device based on the analysis of the device specific performance data;

program code for communicating the forecast of the event of each device to a central event manager;

program code for analyzing the event forecast of each device at the central event manager; and

responsive to analyzing the event forecast of each device, program for proactively modifying the network.

9. The computer program product of claim 8 further comprising program code for selecting the forecast engine for each device based on device functionality.

10. The computer program product of claim 8 wherein the program code for analyzing further includes program code for determining event trend information for each device.

11. The computer program product of claim 8 wherein the program code for analyzing further includes program code for determining event trend information for the network based on individual device forecasted events.

12. The computer program product of claim 8 wherein the event comprise failure of the device and the program code for modifying includes program code for repairing or replacing the at least one device forecasted to fail prior to device failure.

13. The computer program product of claim 12 wherein the program code for modifying further includes program code for altering tasks assigned to the at least one device forecasted to fail prior to device failure.

14. The computer program product of claim 12 wherein the program code for modifying further includes changing memory assignments of the at least one device forecasted to fail prior to device failure.

15. A computer system for managing forecasted events in a network, the computer system comprising:

a software portion executable on a computer processor configured to embed in each of a plurality of devices in the network a statistically-based forecast engine, wherein each forecast engine collects device specific performance data and analyzes the device specific performance data;

a software portion configured to determine at each device, a forecast of an event of the device based on the analysis of the device specific performance data;

a software portion configured to communicate the forecast of the event of each device to a central event manager wherein the central event manager is a server in communication with the network;

a software portion configured to analyze the forecasted events of each device; and

responsive to analyzing the forecasted events of each device, a software portion configured to modify the network.

16. The computer system of claim 15 further comprising a software portion configured to select the forecast engine for each device based on device functionality.

17. The computer system of claim 15 further comprising a software portion configured to determine event trend information for each device.

18. The computer system of claim 15 wherein the software portion configure to analyze further comprises a software portion configured to determine event trend information for the network based on individual device forecasted events.

19. The computer system of claim 15 wherein the event comprises device failure and wherein the software portion configured to modify the network further comprises a software portion configured to repair or replace the at least one device forecasted to fail prior to device failure.

20. The computer system of claim 19 wherein the software portion configured to modify the network further comprises a software portion configured to alter tasks assigned to the at least one device forecasted to fail prior to device failure to prevent or delay device failure.