Supply chain modeling method and system

• US 20070203810A1
• Filed: 02/13/2006
• Published: 08/30/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 02/13/2006
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Caterpillar Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Caterpillar Incorporated
• Inventors: Grichnik, Anthony
• Application Number:
  US11/352,379
• Publication Number:
  US 20070203810A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/28
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders

Abstract

A method is provided for supply chain modeling by a supply chain entity within a supply chain. The supply chain may include a plurality of supply chain entities. The method may include establishing a first supply chain model representing interrelationships between an inventory cost of the supply chain entity and supply capacities of the supply chain entity and establishing a second supply chain model based on the first supply chain model. The method may also include providing a plurality of values of the inventory cost to the second supply chain model to generate corresponding plural sets of desired values of the supply capacities and selecting a set of desired values of the supply capacities from the plural sets of desired values.

Claims

1. A method for supply chain modeling by a supply chain entity within a supply chain that includes a plurality of supply chain entities, comprising:

establishing a first supply chain model representing interrelationships between an inventory cost of the supply chain entity and supply capacities of the supply chain entity;

establishing a second supply chain model based on the first supply chain model;

providing a plurality of values of the inventory cost to the second supply chain model to generate corresponding plural sets of desired values of the supply capacities; and

selecting a set of desired values of the supply capacities from the plural sets of desired values.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the establishing the first supply chain model includes:

obtaining an order fulfillment requirement for a product from a downstream supply chain entity;

identifying one or more representative subsystems of the product;

determining the supply capacities and an inventory requirement for the supply chain entity with respect to the one or more representative subsystems; and

calculating the inventory cost for the supply chain entity based on the inventory requirement with respect to the one or more representative subsystems.

3. The method according to claim 2, further including:

determining a respective inventory requirement for each of the plurality of supply chain entities corresponding to the one or more representative subsystems;

calculating an inventory cost for the each of the plurality of supply chain entities based on the respective inventory requirement for each of the plurality of supply chain entities corresponding to the one or more representative subsystems; and

deriving a total inventory level for the product by combining the respective inventory cost for the each of the plurality of supply chain entities.

4. The method according to claim 2, wherein both the supply capacities and the inventory requirement are represented in terms of time.

5. The method according to claim 2, wherein:

each successive upstream supply chain entity of the supply chain performs a substantially similar calculation on the inventory cost to that performed by a predecessor of the each successive upstream supply chain entity.

6. The method according to claim 5, wherein:

the calculation is selected to minimize a total number of calculations for the supply chain.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the establishing the second supply chain model includes:

obtaining data records associated with one or more variables and the inventory cost by operating the first supply chain model;

selecting the supply capacities from the one or more variables;

generating a computational model indicative of the interrelationships between the supply capacities and the inventory cost;

determining desired statistical distributions of the supply capacities and the inventory cost of the computational model; and

recalibrating the supply capacities based on the desired statistical distributions to define a desired input space.

8. The method according to claim 7, wherein selecting further includes:

pre-processing the data records; and

using a genetic algorithm to select the supply capacities from the one or more variables based on a mahalanobis distance between a normal data set and an abnormal data set of the data records.

9. The method according to claim 7, wherein generating further includes:

creating a neural network computational model;

training the neural network computational model using the data records; and

validating the neural network computation model using the data records.

10. The method according to claim 7, wherein determining further includes:

determining a candidate set of values of the supply capacities with a maximum zeta statistic using a genetic algorithm; and

determining the desired distributions of the inventory cost based on the candidate set,

wherein the zeta statistic ζ

is represented by;

$\mathrm{\zeta <br><br>}=\underset{1}{\overset{j}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br>\underset{1}{\overset{i}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br><br><br>S_{\mathrm{ij}}<br><br><br><br>\left(\frac{{\mathrm{\sigma <br><br>}}_i}{{\stackrel{\_}{x}}_i}\right)<br><br>\left(\frac{{\stackrel{\_}{x}}_j}{{\mathrm{\sigma <br><br>}}_j}\right),$

provided that x_i represents a mean of an ith input;

x_j represents a mean of a jth output;

σ

_i represents a standard deviation of the ith input;

σ

_j represents a standard deviation of the jth output; and

|S_ij| represents sensitivity of the jth output to the ith input of the computational model.

11. A computer system provided for supply chain modeling by a supply chain entity within a supply chain, the computer comprising:

a database containing information associated with a plurality of supply chain entities included in the supply chain; and

a processor configured to;

establish a first supply chain model representing interrelationships between an inventory cost of the supply chain entity and supply capacities of the supply chain entity;

establish a second supply chain model based on the first supply chain model;

provide plurality of values of the inventory cost to the second supply chain model to generate corresponding plural sets of desired values of the supply capacities; and

select a set of desired values of the supply capacities from the plural sets of desired values.

12. The computer system according to claim 11, wherein, to establish the first supply chain model, the processor is configured to:

obtain an order fulfillment requirement for a product from a downstream supply chain entity;

identify one or more representative subsystems of the product;

determine the supply capacities and an inventory requirement for the supply chain entity with respect to the one or more representative subsystems; and

calculate the inventory cost for the supply chain entity based on the inventory requirement with respect to the one or more representative subsystems.

13. The computer system according to claim 11, wherein the processor is further configured to:

determine a respective inventory requirement for each of the plurality of supply chain entities corresponding to the one or more representative subsystems;

calculate an inventory cost for the each of the plurality of supply chain entities based on the respective inventory requirement for each of the plurality of supply chain entities corresponding to the one or more representative subsystems; and

derive a total inventory level for the product by combining the respective inventory cost for the each of the plurality of supply chain entities.

14. The computer system according to claim 11, wherein, to establish the second supply chain model, the processor is configured to:

obtain data records associated with one or more variables and the inventory cost by operating the first supply chain model;

select the supply capacities from the one or more variables;

generate a computational model indicative of the interrelationships between the supply capacities and the inventory cost;

determine desired statistical distributions of the supply capacities and the inventory cost of the computational model; and

recalibrate the supply capacities based on the desired statistical distributions to define a desired input space.

15. The computer system according to claim 14, wherein the processor is further configured to:

determine a candidate set of values of the supply capacities with a maximum zeta statistic using a genetic algorithm; and

determine the desired distributions of the inventory cost based on the candidate set,

wherein the zeta statistic ζ

is represented by;

$\mathrm{\zeta <br><br>}=\underset{1}{\overset{j}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br>\underset{1}{\overset{i}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br><br><br>S_{\mathrm{ij}}<br><br><br><br>\left(\frac{{\mathrm{\sigma <br><br>}}_i}{{\stackrel{\_}{x}}_i}\right)<br><br>\left(\frac{{\stackrel{\_}{x}}_j}{{\mathrm{\sigma <br><br>}}_j}\right),$

provided that x_i represents a mean of an ith input;

x_j represents a mean of a jth output;

σ

_i represents a standard deviation of the ith input;

σ

_j represents a standard deviation of the jth output; and

|S_ij| represents sensitivity of the jth output to the ith input of the computational model.

16. A computer-readable medium for use on a computer system configured to perform a supply chain modeling procedure for a supply chain entity within a supply chain that includes a plurality of supply chain entities, the computer-readable medium having computer-executable instructions for performing a method comprising:

establishing a first supply chain model representing interrelationships between an inventory cost of the supply chain entity and supply capacities of the supply chain entity;

establishing a second supply chain model based on the first supply chain model;

providing a plurality of values of the inventory cost to the second supply chain model to generate corresponding plural sets of desired values of the supply capacities; and

selecting a set of desired values of the supply capacities from the plural sets of desired values.

17. The computer-readable medium according to claim 16, wherein the establishing the first supply chain model includes:

obtaining an order fulfillment requirement for a product from a downstream supply chain entity;

identifying one or more representative subsystems of the product;

determining the supply capacities and an inventory requirement for the supply chain entity with respect to the one or more representative subsystems; and

calculating the inventory cost for the supply chain entity based on the inventory requirement with respect to the one or more representative subsystems.

18. The computer-readable medium according to claim 17, the method further including:

determining a respective inventory requirement for each of the plurality of supply chain entities corresponding to the one or more representative subsystems;

calculating an inventory cost for the each of the plurality of supply chain entities based on the respective inventory requirement for each of the plurality of supply chain entities corresponding to the one or more representative subsystems; and

deriving a total inventory level for the product by combining the respective inventory cost for the each of the plurality of supply chain entities.

19. The computer-readable medium according to claim 16, wherein the establishing the second supply chain model includes:

obtaining data records associated with one or more variables and the inventory cost by operating the first supply chain model;

selecting the supply capacities from the one or more variables;

generating a computational model indicative of the interrelationships between the supply capacities and the inventory cost;

determining desired statistical distributions of the supply capacities and the inventory cost of the computational model; and

recalibrating the supply capacities based on the desired statistical distributions to define a desired input space.

20. The computer-readable medium according to claim 19, wherein determining further includes:

determining a candidate set of values of the supply capacities with a maximum zeta statistic using a genetic algorithm; and

determining the desired distributions of the inventory cost based on the candidate set,

wherein the zeta statistic ζ

is represented by;

$\mathrm{\zeta <br><br>}=\underset{1}{\overset{j}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br>\underset{1}{\overset{i}{\sum <br><br>}}<br><br><br><br>S_{\mathrm{ij}}<br><br><br><br>\left(\frac{{\mathrm{\sigma <br><br>}}_i}{{\stackrel{\_}{x}}_i}\right)<br><br>\left(\frac{{\stackrel{\_}{x}}_j}{{\mathrm{\sigma <br><br>}}_j}\right),$

provided that x_i represents a mean of an ith input;

x_j represents a mean of a jth output;

σ

_i represents a standard deviation of the ith input;

σ

_j represents a standard deviation of the jth output; and

|S_ij| represents sensitivity of the jth output to the ith input of the computational model.