DEVELOPMENT OF ACTUAL RISK COSTS BASED ON ESTIMATED RISK COSTS AS WELL AS PROBABILISTIC RESTRICTION OF THE ACTUAL RISK COSTS

• US 20070214027A1
• Filed: 03/02/2007
• Published: 09/13/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 03/02/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Siemens AG
• Original Assignee: Siemens AG
• Inventors: Sutor, Ariane, MAECKEL, Oliver
• Granted Patent: US 7,805,329 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change

Abstract

An evaluation is performed for a device, an application and/or a method, in particular a method for establishing a technical system such as a power plant for instance, the assessment being carried out on the basis of costs for risks. In accordance with the method, the costs for specific risks are to be assessed. A risk costs interval is to be determined, which contains the actual risk costs with high probability. This is achieved by a regression of intuitive assignments to a straight line by an indirect linear regression by a non-linear regression in an intermediate diagram.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating at least one of a device, an application and a method for establishing a technical system such as a power plant, with an assessment carried out based on costs for risks, comprising:

determining risk costs causes;

assessing possible risk costs depending on risk costs causes,

assigning risk costs values to intuitive risk costs assessment numbers for possible risk costs, respectively,

representing said assigning in a risk costs to risk costs assessment number coordinate system having a risk costs axis with a decadic logarithmic scale and a risk costs assessment number axis with a linear scale;

assuming that values of the possible risk costs have errors randomly and stochastically distributed, in particular normally distributed;

determining a variance and an expected value for the possible risk costs based on a probability to determine actual risk cost values to which are assigned intuitive risk cost assessment numbers, respectively;

implementing regression of the intuitive risk cost assessment numbers on a straight line by an indirect linear regression using a non-linear regression on a straight line in an intermediate diagram;

determining actual overall risk costs from a sum of the actual risk costs by a regression line of the actual risk cost values; and

assigning a probability such that the sum of the actual risk costs remains below an upper limit, with an assumption that the risk costs sum exhibits a probability distribution, in particular a normal distribution, such that quantiles are calculated on this basis.

2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the intermediate diagram, the risk costs values are plotted along a y-axis forming a linear scale, and the intuitive risk costs assessment numbers are plotted along an x-axis forming a linear scale.

3. The method as claimed in claim 2, wherein the non-linear regression uses an exponential function with a base and a linear y-axis ax+b.

4. The method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the base of the exponential function is base 10.

5. The method as claimed in claim 3, further comprising determining values a and b occurring by minimizing quadrats of intervals between determined actual risk costs values and the exponential function.

6. The method as claimed in claim 5, further comprising:

forming an inverse function of the exponential function; and

back transforming the inverse function in a risk costs coordinate system, the risk costs assessment number coordinate system having a risk costs axis with a decade logarithmic scale and a risk costs assessment number axis with a linear scale, with a straight line ax+b determined by the values a and b being determined.

7. The method as claimed in claim 6, wherein said determining determines risk costs causes from the system to be established, deadline difficulties, currency fluctuations, overtime hours and/or price increases.