Prediction markets for assessing clinical probabilities of success
First Claim
1. A method of using a prediction market to determine a probability of a candidate meeting clinical trial goals, the method comprising:
- identifying a specific goal for the candidate, wherein the goal is associated with a specific indication and a specific trial protocol;
structuring a security to be traded by qualified market participants as a proxy for the candidate reaching the specific goal;
selecting a qualified group of participants to trade the security, wherein the participants in the group have relevant knowledge;
establishing a prediction market for the selected group of participants to trade the security for the specific goal with sufficient liquidity to generate a robust market clearing price;
observing trading behaviors in the prediction market; and
determining the probability from the observed trading behaviors.
2 Assignments
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
Prediction markets are used to determine the probability of an experimental therapeutic, diagnostic, or prophylactic candidate meeting clinical trial and post-trial goals, such as clinical trial endpoints and timelines. The prediction market processes buy and sell orders from market participants, while adjusting the prices of the securities according to the orders. The securities have specific meanings which correspond to goals in clinical trials or other outcomes in clinical candidate development. The price of a security determined by the market corresponds to the probability of the corresponding goal or outcome. The participants are selected for their expert knowledge of specific factors related to candidate development. Using appropriately selected securities and participants, the prediction market may be used to generate probabilities of success useful for long-range planning and valuation, determining production timelines and volumes, management of candidates in a development portfolio, and clinical management of patients by physicians.
-
Citations
32 Claims
-
1. A method of using a prediction market to determine a probability of a candidate meeting clinical trial goals, the method comprising:
-
identifying a specific goal for the candidate, wherein the goal is associated with a specific indication and a specific trial protocol;
structuring a security to be traded by qualified market participants as a proxy for the candidate reaching the specific goal;
selecting a qualified group of participants to trade the security, wherein the participants in the group have relevant knowledge;
establishing a prediction market for the selected group of participants to trade the security for the specific goal with sufficient liquidity to generate a robust market clearing price;
observing trading behaviors in the prediction market; and
determining the probability from the observed trading behaviors. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22)
-
-
23. A computer program product comprising program code for using a prediction market to determine a probability of a candidate meeting clinical trials goals, the computer program product comprising:
-
program code operable to associate a price with a security, wherein the security is further associated with a specific goal for the candidate, wherein the specific goal is associated with a specific indication and a specific trial protocol, and wherein the security is traded as a proxy for the candidate reaching the specific goal;
program code operable to make the security available in an online market for buying and selling by participants from a qualified group of participants, wherein the participants in the qualified group have relevant knowledge;
program code operable to accept and process buy and sell orders for the security from the participants; and
program code operable to adjust the price based upon the buy and sell orders to reflect the market'"'"'s determination of the price. - View Dependent Claims (24, 25, 26, 27)
-
-
28. A method of using a prediction market to determine a probability of a candidate meeting clinical trial goals, comprising the steps of:
-
associating a price with a security, wherein the security is further associated with a specific goal for the candidate, wherein the specific goal is associated with a specific indication and a specific trial protocol, and wherein the security is traded as a proxy for the candidate reaching the specific goal;
making the security available in an online market for buying and selling by participants;
accepting and processing buy and sell orders for the security from the participants from a qualified group of participants, wherein the participants in the qualified group have relevant knowledge; and
adjusting the price based upon the buy and sell orders to reflect the market'"'"'s determination of the price. - View Dependent Claims (29, 30, 31, 32)
-
Specification