General-purpose adaptive reasoning processor and fault-to-failure progression modeling of a multiplicity of regions of degradation for producing remaining useful life estimations

• US 20070255511A1
• Filed: 07/03/2006
• Published: 11/01/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 04/28/2006
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Ridgetop Group, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Ridgetop Group, Inc.
• Inventors: Hofmeister, James, Judkins, Justin
• Application Number:
  US11/480,791
• Publication Number:
  US 20070255511A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/34
• CPC Class Codes: G01R 31/2868 Complete testing stations; systems; procedures; software aspects

Abstract

The system contains a device and a defining signature of at least one characteristic of the device. The defining signature changing as the device accumulates damage through a period of useful lifetime in a damaged state. A sensor is in communication with the device. The sensor sensing at least one of the characteristics of the defining signature as the device accumulates damage through the period of useful lifetime. A predictive curve is provided with the defining signature mapped over the anticipated useful lifetime of the device in the damaged state. The predictive curve provides a preliminary prediction of the remaining useful lifetime of the device in the damaged state. A reasoner is in communication with the sensor. The reasoner modifies the predictive curve relative to the sensed defining signature, thereby providing a normalization of the defining signature to the predictive curve.

Claims

1. A system for predicting a remaining useful lifetime of a device and revising the prediction during the lifetime of the device, said system comprising:

a defining signature comprising at least one characteristic of the device, said defining signature changing as said device accumulates damage through a period of useful lifetime in a damaged state;

a sensor in communication with said device, said sensor sensing at least one characteristic of said characteristics of said defining signature as said device accumulates damage through said period of useful lifetime;

a predictive curve with said defining signature mapped over an anticipated useful lifetime of said device in said damaged state, whereby said predictive curve provides a preliminary prediction of said remaining useful lifetime of said device in said damaged state; and

a reasoner in communication with the sensor, said reasoner modifying the predictive curve relative to the sensed at least one characteristic of said at least one characteristic of said defining signature, thereby providing a normalization of said defining signature to said predictive curve.

2. The system of claim 1, further comprising an indicator in communication with the predictive curve, wherein the indicator initiates when the device has reached a predetermined level of accumulated damage, providing an indication that said device is operating in a new state of damage and an accompanying indication of said remaining useful lifetime.

3. The system of claim 1, further comprising a device memory in communication with the sensor, said device memory storing information sensed by the sensor.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the predictive curve is divided into a plurality of measurand-defined curve sections.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the reasoner modifies a slope of only a contemporary temporally divided curve section of a plurality of temporally divided curve sections based on a sensed defining signature event.

6. The system of claim 5, wherein the reasoner time-shifts all of said plurality of temporally divided curve sections temporally subsequent to the contemporary temporally divided curve section.

8. The system of claim 1, further comprising a plurality of devices, wherein the reasoner modifies the predictive curved relative to the sensed at least one characteristic of said at least one characteristic of said defining signature for each of the plurality of devices.

7. (canceled)

9. A method for predicting a remaining useful lifetime of a device in a damaged state and revising the prediction during the remaining lifetime of the device in said damaged state, said method comprising the steps of:

sensing at least one characteristic of a defining signature of said device over time, said at least one characteristic changing as said device accumulates damage through a period of a useful lifetime;

modifying a predictive curve relative to the sensed at least one characteristics over time, said predictive curve having said defining signature mapped over an anticipated remaining useful lifetime of said device in said damaged state, whereby said predictive curve provides a prediction of said remaining useful lifetime of said device in said damaged state.

10. The method of claim 9, further comprising indicating imminent device failure when the device in said damaged state has a predetermined period of time remaining on the prediction of said remaining useful lifetime.

11. The method of claim 9, further comprising storing characteristics sensed by the sensor.

12. A method for predicting a remaining useful lifetime of a device and revising the prediction during the lifetime of the device in a damaged state, said method comprising the steps of:

sensing at least one characteristic of a defining signature of said device over time, said defining signature changing as said device accumulates further damage through a useful lifetime in said damaged state;

defining an attainable value for the defining signature, whereby the attainable value is indicative of damage to the device; and

modifying a predictive curve relative to the sensed at least one characteristic of said defining signature in conjunction with the sensed at least one characteristic of said defining signature achieving a value greater than the attainable value, whereby said predictive curve provides a prediction of said remaining useful lifetime of said device in said damaged state.

13. The method of claim 12, further comprising indicating imminent device failure when the device has a predetermined period of time remaining on the prediction of said remaining useful lifetime.

14. The method of claim 12, further comprising storing characteristics sensed by the sensor.

15. The method of claim 12, further comprising dividing the predictive curve into a plurality of sections, wherein the step of modifying the predictive curve further comprises modifying a size of a section concurrent with the sensed at least one characteristic characteristics of the defining signature and shifting subsequent sections relative to the size modification of the section concurrent with the sensed at least one characteristic of said defining signature.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein the plurality of sections of the predictive curve are divided into measurand-defined sections.

17. The method of claim 15 wherein the step of modifying a size of a section concurrent with the sensed at least one characteristic of the defining signature further comprises modifying a temporal width of the section, wherein an average measurand height of the section remains unmodified.

18. The method of claim 15, wherein each section has a maximum measurand height and a section ceases to be modified when a value of the defining signature exceeds the maximum measurand height of that section.

19. The method of claim 12, wherein the predictive curve is linearized.