Systems and Methods For Calculating And Predicting Near Term Production Cost, Incremental Heat Rate, Capacity and Emissions Of Electric Generation Power Plants Based On Current Operating and, Optionally, Atmospheric Conditions

• US 20080021675A1
• Filed: 07/17/2007
• Published: 01/24/2008
• Est. Priority Date: 07/17/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Linda Hutchinson, Stephen Fehr
• Original Assignee: Linda Hutchinson, Stephen Fehr
• Inventors: Fehr, Stephen, Hutchinson, Linda
• Granted Patent: US 7,489,990 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/182
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202

Abstract

Systems and methods for calculating and predicting performance characteristics, incremental heat rate, capacity, incremental costs, production cost and emissions, for electric power generation plants, and in particular, those that use steam and gas-turbine prime movers. The system includes models and modules for calculating current unit performance and predicting unit performance, including the incremental heat rate and maximum capacity, using unit operating parameters, unit configuration data, and fuel constituency data. The system further includes a module for forecasting or predicting unit performance and cost information, by allowing the user to alter unit configuration and fuel constituency data to model planned maintenance and projected fuel changes, and to account for anticipated atmospheric conditions.

Claims

1. A system for calculating an incremental heat rate and a maximum capacity for at least one power generating unit, comprising:

a current performance model, for calculating one or more performance characteristics for a first time period for the power generating unit, using at least one of data describing the unit'"'"'s physical configuration, data describing the unit'"'"'s operating parameters, and data describing the unit'"'"'s fuel constituency;

a database, for storing at least one of the performance characteristics; and

a predictive performance model, for calculating an incremental heat rate and a maximum capacity for the power generating unit, using at least one of data describing the unit'"'"'s physical configuration, data describing the unit'"'"'s fuel constituency and performance characteristics.

2. The system of claim 1, further comprising a forecasting module, for calculating a forecast incremental heat rate and a forecast maximum capacity for a second time period for the power generating unit, using at least one of data describing the unit'"'"'s anticipated physical configuration, data describing the unit'"'"'s anticipated fuel constituency, data describing anticipated atmospheric conditions and performance characteristics.

3. The system of claim 1, further comprising a user interface, for displaying at least one of incremental heat rate, maximum capacity, forecast incremental heat rate, forecast maximum capacity, and performance characteristics.

4. A method for calculating an incremental heat rate and a maximum capacity for at least one power generating unit, comprising:

calculating one or more performance characteristics for a first time period for the power generating unit, using at least one of data describing the unit'"'"'s physical configuration, data describing the unit'"'"'s operating parameters, and data describing the unit'"'"'s fuel constituency;

storing at least one of the performance characteristics;

calculating an incremental heat rate for the power generating unit, using at least one of data describing the unit'"'"'s physical configuration, data describing the unit'"'"'s fuel constituency, and performance characteristics; and

calculating a maximum capacity for the power generating unit, using at least one of data describing the unit'"'"'s physical configuration, data describing the unit'"'"'s fuel constituency, and performance characteristics.

5. The method of claim 4, further comprising calculating a forecast incremental heat rate and a forecast maximum capacity for a second time period for the power generating unit, using at least one of data describing the unit'"'"'s anticipated physical configuration, data describing the unit'"'"'s anticipated fuel constituency, data describing anticipated atmospheric conditions;

and performance characteristics.

6. The method of claim 5, further comprising calculating a forecast incremental cost using the forecast incremental heat rate and at least one of data describing anticipated fuel costs, data describing anticipated consumable costs, data describing anticipated emissions costs, data describing anticipated plant depreciation costs, and data describing anticipated maintenance costs.

7. The method of claim 4, further comprising displaying at least one of incremental heat rate, maximum capacity, forecast incremental heat rate, forecast maximum capacity, and performance characteristics.

8. The method of claim 4, further comprising calculating an incremental cost using the incremental heat rate and at least one of data describing fuel costs, data describing consumable costs, data describing emissions costs, data describing plant depreciation costs, and data describing maintenance costs.

9. The method of claim 4, where the incremental heat rate is calculated by determining a heat rate and a power output for a unit load at a first point above the unit load and a second point below the unit load, and determining the slope of a line connecting the first point and the second point.

10. The method of claim 9, where the first point is approximately 2 to 5% above the unit load and the second point is approximately 2 to 5% below the unit load.