System and method for evaluating risks associated with delaying machine maintenance

• US 20080082345A1
• Filed: 09/29/2006
• Published: 04/03/2008
• Est. Priority Date: 09/29/2006
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Caterpillar Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Caterpillar Incorporated
• Inventors: Greiner, Jonny Ray, Sorrells, Giles Kent, Gordon, Richard Lee, Grichnik, Anthony James
• Application Number:
  US11/529,239
• Publication Number:
  US 20080082345A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/20 Administration of product repair or maintenance
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising

Abstract

A method for determining risk associated with delaying machine maintenance includes receiving health data associated with a machine and analyzing the health data based on predetermined threshold data to detect an event alert condition. A future failure date of a machine component is then estimated based on the health data analysis. Historic productivity data associated with the machine is analyzed and a cost associated with operating the machine with the event alert condition for a predetermined amount of time is estimated. A cost associated with removing the machine from service is predicted based on historic productivity analysis. The estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service is then analyzed based on the estimated cost associated with operating the machine with the event alert condition. A machine repair recommendation indicative of the cost analysis is provided.

Claims

1. A method for determining risk associated with delaying machine maintenance comprising:

receiving health data associated with a machine;

analyzing the health data based on predetermined threshold data to detect an event alert condition;

estimating a future failure date of a machine component based on the health data analysis;

analyzing historic productivity data associated with the machine;

estimating a cost associated with operating the machine with the event alert condition for a predetermined amount of time;

estimating a cost associated with removing the machine from service based on historic productivity analysis;

analyzing the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service based on the estimated cost associated with operating the machine with the event alert condition; and

providing a machine maintenance recommendation based on the cost analysis.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein analyzing the health data includes providing an event alert if the health data is inconsistent with the predetermined threshold data, wherein the event alert corresponds with a prognostic code associated with one or more potential problems with the machine.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein estimating the cost associated with removing the machine from service includes determining, based on the historical productivity data, a value associated with a loss in productivity corresponding to removal of the machine during an estimated maintenance duration.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the value associated with the loss in productivity includes one or more of a monetary value associated with an average income generated by the machine corresponding to the estimated maintenance duration.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein estimating the cost associated with removing the machine from service includes determining a cost associated with replacing the machine with a second machine.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein estimating the cost associated with removing the machine from service includes estimating a current cost associated with a machine maintenance.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein estimating a cost associated with operating the machine with the event alert condition includes estimating a future cost associated with a future machine maintenance.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein estimating the future cost includes:

estimating a future duration associated with the machine maintenance; and

determining, based on the historical productivity data, a value associated with a loss in productivity corresponding to removal of the machine during the estimated future maintenance duration.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein providing the machine maintenance recommendation includes:

providing a recommendation to remove the machine from service if the estimated cost associated with operating the machine until the future failure date exceeds the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service; and

providing a recommendation to operate the machine until the future failure date if the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service exceeds the estimated cost associated with operating the machine until the future failure date.

10. A computer-readable medium for use on a computer system, the computer-readable medium having computer executable instructions for performing the method of claim 1.

11. A system for evaluating risks associated with delaying machine maintenance comprising:

a communication interface for receiving health data associated with a machine;

a processor, communicatively coupled to the communication interface and configured to;

analyze the health data based on predetermined threshold data;

estimate a future failure date of a machine component based on the health data analysis;

analyze historic productivity data associated with the machine;

estimate a cost associated with operating the machine with an event alert condition for a predetermined amount of time;

estimate a cost associated with removing the machine from service based on historic productivity analysis;

analyze the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service based on the estimated cost associated with operating the machine with the event alert condition; and

provide a machine maintenance recommendation based on the cost analysis.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein analyzing the health data includes providing an event alert if the health data is inconsistent with the predetermined threshold data, wherein the event alert corresponds with a prognostic code associated with one or more potential problems with the machine.

13. The system of claim 11, wherein estimating the cost associated with removing the machine from service includes determining, based on the historical productivity data, a value associated with a loss in productivity corresponding to removal of the machine during an estimated maintenance duration.

14. The system of claim 11, wherein estimating the cost associated with removing the machine from service includes at least one of:

determining a cost associated with replacing the machine with a second machine or estimating a current cost associated with a machine maintenance;

or

estimating a future cost associated with a future machine maintenance.

15. The system of claim 14, wherein estimating the future cost includes:

estimating a future duration associated with the machine maintenance; and

determining, based on the historical productivity data, a value associated with a loss in productivity corresponding to removal of the machine during the estimated future maintenance duration.

16. The system of claim 11, wherein providing the machine maintenance recommendation includes:

providing a recommendation to remove the machine from service if the estimated cost associated with operating the machine until the future failure date exceeds the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service; and

providing a recommendation to operate the machine until the future failure date if the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service exceeds the estimated cost associated with operating the machine until the future failure date.

17. A machine environment comprising:

a machine operating in the machine environment;

a communication module for communicating data associated with the machine;

at least one monitoring device for collecting health data associated with at least one component of the machine and providing the health data to the communication module;

a system for evaluating risks associated with delaying machine maintenance communicatively coupled to the communication module and configured to;

receive health data associated with a machine;

analyze the health data based on predetermined threshold data;

estimate a future failure date of a machine component based on the health data analysis;

estimate a cost and duration associated with repairing the machine;

analyze historic productivity data associated with the machine;

estimate a cost associated with removing the machine from service based on historic productivity analysis and the estimated maintenance duration;

compare the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service with the estimated cost associated with the machine maintenance; and

provide a recommendation to remove the machine from service if the estimated cost associated with operating the machine until the future failure date exceeds the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service; and

provide a recommendation to operate the machine until the future failure date if the estimated cost associated with removing the machine from service exceeds the estimated cost associated with operating the machine until the future failure date.

18. The machine environment of claim 17, wherein analyzing the health data includes providing an event alert if the health data is inconsistent with the predetermined threshold data, wherein the event alert corresponds with a prognostic code associated with one or more potential problems with the machine.

19. The machine environment of claim 17, wherein estimating the cost associated with removing the machine from service includes determining, based on the historical productivity data, a value associated with a loss in productivity corresponding to removal of the machine during an estimated maintenance duration.

20. The machine environment of claim 17, wherein estimating the cost associated with removing the machine from service includes at least one of:

determining a cost associated with replacing the machine with a second machine or estimating a current cost associated with a machine maintenance;

or

estimating a future cost associated with a future machine maintenance.