Travel-time prediction apparatus, travel-time prediction method, traffic information providing system and program
First Claim
1. A travel-time prediction apparatus, to which are input a link specified as a prediction target from a set of all links, date and time of the prediction target and travel-time time-series data that is input sequentially in relation to the specified link, for outputting predicted travel time in the specified link and at the date and time, wherein said apparatus comprises:
- a database that stores travel-time transition patterns obtained by statistically processing past time-series data of each link according to at least day type, said data base supplying a travel-time transition pattern corresponding to the specified link and day type;
a conversion parameter calculating unit that calculates conversion parameters of a travel-time transition pattern for which an error between the travel-time transition pattern and sequentially input travel-time time-series data will be reduced; and
a prediction unit that makes a prediction using a prediction function obtained by converting the travel-time transition pattern by the calculated conversion parameters.
2 Assignments
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
Disclosed is a travel-time prediction apparatus that is capable of making a mid-term prediction of travel time accurately by combining present conditions and statistical information. The apparatus includes a travel-time transition pattern database storing travel-time transition patterns obtained by statistically processing past time-series data of each road link according to type of data. Upon accepting a travel-time transition pattern corresponding to a specified link and day type from the database, the apparatus calculates conversion parameters of a travel-time transition pattern for which an error between the travel-time transition pattern and a sequentially input travel-time time-series data will be reduced, and then makes a prediction using a prediction function obtained by converting the travel-time transition pattern by the calculated conversion parameters. The calculated predicted value and the conversion parameters are distributed as traffic information.
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Citations
15 Claims
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1. A travel-time prediction apparatus, to which are input a link specified as a prediction target from a set of all links, date and time of the prediction target and travel-time time-series data that is input sequentially in relation to the specified link, for outputting predicted travel time in the specified link and at the date and time, wherein said apparatus comprises:
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a database that stores travel-time transition patterns obtained by statistically processing past time-series data of each link according to at least day type, said data base supplying a travel-time transition pattern corresponding to the specified link and day type; a conversion parameter calculating unit that calculates conversion parameters of a travel-time transition pattern for which an error between the travel-time transition pattern and sequentially input travel-time time-series data will be reduced; and a prediction unit that makes a prediction using a prediction function obtained by converting the travel-time transition pattern by the calculated conversion parameters. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13)
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14. A travel-time prediction method using a computer, to which are input a link specified as a prediction target from a set of all links, date and time of the prediction target and travel-time time-series data that is input sequentially in relation to the specified link, for outputting predicted travel time in the specified link and at the date and time, said method comprising the following steps executed by the computer:
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accepting a travel-time transition pattern corresponding to the specified link and type of day from a database storing travel-time transition patterns obtained by statistically processing past time-series data of each link according to at least day type; calculating conversion parameters of a travel-time transition pattern for which an error between the travel-time transition pattern and sequentially input travel-time time-series data will be reduced; obtaining a prediction function by converting the travel-time transition pattern by the calculated conversion parameters; and predicting and outputting predicted travel time in the specified link and at the date and time using the prediction function.
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15. A program executed by a computer, to which are input a link specified as a prediction target from a set of all links, date and time of the prediction target and travel-time time-series data that is input sequentially in relation to the specified link, for outputting predicted travel time in the specified link and at the date and time, said program causing the computer to execute the following processing:
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processing for accepting a travel-time transition pattern corresponding to the specified link and type of day from a database storing travel-time transition patterns obtained by statistically processing past time-series data of each link according to at least day type; processing for calculating conversion parameters of a travel-time transition pattern for which an error between the travel-time transition pattern and sequentially input travel-time time-series data will be reduced; processing for obtaining a prediction function by converting the travel-time transition pattern by the calculated conversion parameters; and processing for predicting and outputting predicted travel time in the specified link and at the date and time using the prediction function.
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Specification