Method and System for Predicting Causes of Network Service Outages Using Time Domain Correlation
First Claim
1. A method for quantifying the effect of an outage in a service over a first period of time, the method comprising:
- measuring usage of the service over time;
defining a cost of outage time window comprising the first time period and a second time period following the first time period; and
computing a cost of outage as the difference between the measured service usage during the cost of outage time window with service usage measured during a comparison window, the comparison window being substantially equal in time to that of the cost of outage time window and reflecting a similar period of service activity as that of the cost of outage time window without having a service outage.
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Abstract
Methods and systems are described for predicting the likely causes of service outages using only time information, and for predicting and the likely costs of service outages. The likely causes are found by defining a narrow likely cause window around an outage based on service quality and/or service usage data, and correlating service events to the likely cause window in the time domain to find a probability distribution for the events. The likely costs are found by measuring usage loss and duration for a given point during an outage and using cost component functions of the time and usage to extrapolate over the outage. These cause and cost predictions supply service administrators with tools for making more informed decisions about allocation of resources in preventing and correcting service outages.
113 Citations
40 Claims
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1. A method for quantifying the effect of an outage in a service over a first period of time, the method comprising:
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measuring usage of the service over time; defining a cost of outage time window comprising the first time period and a second time period following the first time period; and computing a cost of outage as the difference between the measured service usage during the cost of outage time window with service usage measured during a comparison window, the comparison window being substantially equal in time to that of the cost of outage time window and reflecting a similar period of service activity as that of the cost of outage time window without having a service outage. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
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11. A method for quantifying the effect of an outage in a service, the method comprising:
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measuring usage amounts of the service during a period of the service outage and a second period following the service outage; comparing the measured usage amounts to normal usage amounts measured under similar service conditions for a similar period of time where no service outage occurs; and determining a level of loss of service due to the service outage based on the comparison. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17)
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18. A computer readable medium storing program code which, when executed, causes a computer to perform a method for quantifying the effect of an outage in a service over a first period of time, the method comprising:
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measuring service usage over time; defining a cost of outage time window comprising the first time period and a second time period; and computing a cost of outage as the difference between the measured level of service usage during the cost of outage time window with a level of usage in a comparison window, the comparison window being substantially equal in time to the cost of outage time window and reflecting a similar period of service activity as the cost of outage time window without having a service outage.
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19. A method for predicting a cost of an outage of a service, the method comprising:
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measuring time duration for and service usage during the outage; comparing the measured usage amounts to normal usage amounts measured under similar service conditions for a similar period of time where no service outage occurs, to thereby determine a usage loss amount; and computing a predicted cost of the outage based at least upon a cost component, the cost component comprising a function of the measured time of the outage and measured usage loss amount. - View Dependent Claims (20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31)
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32. A network monitoring system comprising:
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a usage meter for measuring usage of a service on the network; an event detector for detecting network events and times at which the network events occur; a probable cause engine, coupled to receive data from the usage meter and the event detector, for determining which of the network events detected by the event detector is the most likely cause of a service outage based at least in part of the relations of the detected network event times to a service change time window, the service change time window encompassing at least part of an occurrence of the service outage in the network; and a costing engine, coupled to receive data from the usage meter, for predicting the cost of the service outage.
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33. Computer readable media comprising program code that, when executed by a programmable microprocessor, causes the programmable microprocessor to execute a method for quantifying the effect of an outage in a service, the method comprising:
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measuring usage amount of the service during a period of the service outage and a second period following the service outage; comparing the measured usage amounts to normal usage amounts measured under similar service conditions for a similar period of time where no service outage occurs; and determining a level of loss of service due to the service outage based on the comparison. - View Dependent Claims (34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39)
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40. Computer readable media comprising program code that, when executed by a programmable microprocessor, causes the programmable microprocessor to execute a method for predicting a cost of an outage of a service, the method comprising:
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measuring time duration for and service usage during the outage; comparing the measured usage amounts to normal usage amounts measured under similar service conditions for s similar period of time where no service outage occurs, to thereby determine a usage loss amount; and computing a predicted cost of the outage based at least upon a cost component. the cost component comprising a function of the measured time of the outage and measured usage loss amount.
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Specification