METHOD OF IDENTIFYING LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ELEVATED LEVELS OF ABUSE OF OPIOID ANALGESIC DRUGS
First Claim
1. A method of identifying locations of anomalous levels of pharmaceutical abuse, by analyzing a set of data containinga specific code for each prescription being monitored;
- a time period datum;
a location code;
a count of actual adverse event reports (AER); and
a number of persons dispensed each drug in each location;
comprising the steps of;
fitting a Poisson regression model to said set of data;
calculating associated confidence intervals;
calculating, for each combination of a location code, a drug code, and time period datum, a respective expected number of adverse event reports;
comparing each expected number of adverse event reports with said count of actual adverse event reports; and
flagging, as an outlier, each instance where said count of actual adverse event reports deviates from said expected number of adverse event reports.
1 Assignment
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
In the field of pharmacovigilance (monitoring of adverse events associated with the use of marketed prescription drugs), an improved method of detecting “signals” of abuse or diversion of pharmaceuticals is needed, in order to more reliably distinguish real anomalies in pharmaceutical consumption in particular locations from apparent anomalies which are statistical artifacts of high local concentrations of authorized pharmaceutical users. An improved method relies upon government statistics on adverse drug reactions and on census statistics, and employs a Poisson statistical model to adjust for both fixed effects and random effects, such as spatial relations between different locations. The more accurate “signals” provided by the improved method permit public health and law enforcement officials to allocate public resources more efficiently and effectively.
17 Citations
19 Claims
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1. A method of identifying locations of anomalous levels of pharmaceutical abuse, by analyzing a set of data containing
a specific code for each prescription being monitored; -
a time period datum; a location code; a count of actual adverse event reports (AER); and a number of persons dispensed each drug in each location; comprising the steps of; fitting a Poisson regression model to said set of data; calculating associated confidence intervals; calculating, for each combination of a location code, a drug code, and time period datum, a respective expected number of adverse event reports; comparing each expected number of adverse event reports with said count of actual adverse event reports; and flagging, as an outlier, each instance where said count of actual adverse event reports deviates from said expected number of adverse event reports. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. A method of analyzing a set of data on abuse of pharmaceuticals, to identify locations where data values constitute a “
- signal”
of anomalous abuse, comprising identifying locations for whichYijk represents data for drug i at time j in location k, N is a count of Unique Recipients of the Dispensed Drug (URDD) for drug i at time j in location k, Yijk˜
Poisson (exp (μ
φ
k)*Nijk)and the equation
Log (η
ijk)=log(Nijk)+β
0 +β
i(i=1, . . . ,
8)D1 β
jTime+α
iIncome+α
2Age+α
3Race+bk+Tyyields a statistically significant elevated value, where Di (i=1, . . .
8) are indicator variables for drug,Time is a continuous variable representing year-quarter, Race is the percent of white people in 3 DZ k, Age is the percent of individuals age 18 to 24 years in 3 DZ k, Income is the median household income (US $100,000) for 3 DZ k, bk is the 3 DZ random effect, and Tj is a year-quarter random effect.
- signal”
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18. A method of identifying locations of anomalous levels of pharmaceutical drug diversion, by analyzing a set of data containing
a specific code for each prescription drug being monitored; -
a time period datum; a location code; a count of actual drug diversion reports; and a number of persons dispensed each prescription drug in each location; comprising the steps of; fitting a regression model to said set of data; calculating associated confidence intervals; calculating, for each combination of a location code, a drug code, and time period datum, a respective expected number of drug diversion reports; comparing each expected number of drug diversion reports with said count of actual drug diversion reports; and flagging, as a signal, each instance where said count of actual drug diversion reports exceeds said expected number of drug diversion reports. - View Dependent Claims (19)
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Specification