System and Method for Long Term Forecasting

• US 20080300963A1
• Filed: 07/31/2007
• Published: 12/04/2008
• Est. Priority Date: 05/30/2007
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Verint Systems Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Verint Systems Incorporated
• Inventors: Bourke, Michael Robert, Fama, Jason, Seetharaman, Krithika, Lawrence, Richard M.
• Application Number:
  US11/831,257
• Publication Number:
  US 20080300963A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0637 Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

Systems and methods of strategic forecasting of demand are disclosed. One such method comprises receiving demand data and computing a variant factor associated with a variant. The variant includes a variant date and a measure of demand on the variant date. The method further includes generating a strategic forecast. The strategic forecast includes a forecast for the variant date, based on the variant factor and on the demand data for the variant date.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method of strategic forecasting of demand for a customer center, comprising:

receiving demand data;

computing a variant factor associated with a variant, the variant comprising a variant date and a measure of demand on the variant date;

generating a forecast for the variant date, based on the variant factor and on the demand data for the variant date.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the variant corresponds to a special event.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the variant corresponds to an outlier.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the variant corresponds to a queue reconfiguration event.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the variant date occurs in the past.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the demand data comprises past demand data.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the demand data comprises current demand data.

8. A system for strategic forecasting of demand for a customer center, comprising:

logic configured to receive data describing past demand;

logic configured to receive a description of a variant period, the description including a variant date and a measure of demand on the variant date;

logic configured to compute a variant factor, the variant factor describing an effect of the variant period on the customer center; and

logic configured to generate a strategic forecast based, at least in part, on the variant factor and on at least a portion of the past demand data corresponding to the variant date.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein the description describes a special event.

10. The system of claim 8, wherein the description describes a queue reconfiguration event.

11. The system of claim 8, wherein the description describes an outlier.

12. The system of claim 8, wherein the variant date occurs in the past.

13. The system of claim 8, wherein the variant date occurs in the future.

14. A computer-implemented method for strategic forecasting of demand for a customer center, comprising:

receiving an identification of a variant date, the variant date associated with a measure of demand on the variant date;

receiving a variant date range used in determining a variant factor;

finding a non-variant date in the variant date range that corresponds to the variant date but that does not correspond to the identified variant date;

computing the variant factor describing an effect of the variant period on the past demand; and

generating a strategic forecast including a forecast for the variant date based past demand data for the variant date and the variant factor.

15. The method of claim 14, further comprising:

computing the variant factor as a ratio of the demand data on the variant date to the demand data at the corresponding non-variant date.

16. The method of claim 14, wherein the identification corresponds to a special event.

17. The method of claim 14, wherein the identification corresponds to an outlier.

18. The method of claim 14, wherein the identification corresponds to a queue reconfiguration event.

19. The method of claim 14, further comprising:

identifying a possible variant; and

receiving an indication that the possible variant is to be treated by the method as a variant.

20. The method of claim 14, further comprising:

receiving a tactical forecast; and

combining the received tactical forecast with the generated strategic forecast in accordance with a weighting factor that describes relative importance of the tactical forecast and the strategic forecast.