Forecasting Volume for a Promotion

• US 20090006182A1
• Filed: 11/29/2007
• Published: 01/01/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 06/29/2007
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: The Procter & Gamble Company
• Original Assignee: The Procter & Gamble Company
• Inventors: Gammon, Mark Andrew
• Application Number:
  US11/947,233
• Publication Number:
  US 20090006182A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0224 based on user history

Abstract

Forecasting the volume of a product as part of a promotion provides for better resource allocation by the retailer and manufacturer to support the promotion.

Claims

1. A method of forecasting target volume of a target product of a target promotion in a store comprising the steps:

(a) defining target promotion attributes of the target promotion, wherein the target promotion attributes comprise the target product, a target product promotion price, a target promotion time period, or combinations thereof;

(b) assessing purchase data of a store,

wherein the purchase data comprises data about a historical promotion,

wherein the historical promotion comprises historical promotion attributes;

wherein the historical promotion attributes comprise;

a historical product, a historical product

promotion price, a historical promotion time period, and combinations thereof;

(c) identifying one or more historical promotion(s) from the assessed purchase data that matches the target promotion based on the respective target promotion attributes and historical promotion attributes;

(d) identifying a single highest selling historical promotion from the one or more identified historical promotion(s);

(e) determining a historical volume of the historical product of the identified single highest selling historical promotion; and

(f) forecasting the target volume of the target product of the target promotion based upon the determined volume of the historical product.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of assessing the purchase data of a store comprises assessing on a store-by-store basis.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein promotion attributes comprise:

the target product, the target product promotion price, and the target promotion time period.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the step of assessing the purchase data of a store comprises assessing on a store-by-store basis;

and wherein identifying one or more historical promotion(s) from the assessed purchase data comprises identifying at least two historical promotions.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the promotion attributes further comprise at least one of the following:

(i) type of promotion;

(ii) in-store promotion location;

(iii) time relevancy of the promotion;

(iv) store compliance;

(v) calendar timing; and

(vi) combinations thereof.

6. The method of claim 3, wherein the promotion attributes further comprise at least one of the following:

(i) type of promotion;

(ii) in-store promotion location;

(iii) time relevancy of the promotion;

(iv) store compliance;

(v) calendar timing; and

(vi) combinations thereof.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the step of assessing the purchase data comprises assessing on a store-by-store basis.

8. The method of claim 2, wherein the method is free of assessing base volume of the historical product of the historical product promotion.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein determining the volume of the historical product comprises determining an absolute volume of the historical product of the historical product promotion.

10. A method of forecasting volume of a target product of a target promotion in a store comprising the steps:

(a) defining target promotion attributes of the target promotion;

(b) assessing purchase data of a store,

wherein the purchase data comprises data about a historical promotion,

wherein the historical promotion comprises historical promotion attributes;

(c) identifying one or more historical promotion(s) from the assessed purchase data that matches the target promotion based on the respective target promotion attributes and historical promotion attributes,

wherein the historical promotion attributes or target promotion attributes are matched by statistical analysis by their degree of influence on forecasting the volume of the target product;

(d) identifying a single highest selling historical promotion from the one or more identified historical promotions);

(e) determining a volume of the historical product of the identified single highest selling historical promotion; and

(f) forecasting the volume of the target product of the target promotion based upon the determined volume of the historical product.

11. The method of claim 10,

wherein the step of assessing the purchase data of a store comprises assessing on a store-by-store basis;

and

wherein promotional attributes are chosen from (i) type of promotion;

(ii) product(s);

(iii) price of the product(s);

(iv) in-store promotion location (v) time relevancy of the promotion;

(vi) store compliance;

(vii) calendar timing;

(viii) promotion time period; and

(ix) combinations thereof

12. The method of claim 10, wherein the method is free of assessing base volume of the historical product of the historical product promotion.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein determining the volume of the historical product comprises determining an absolute volume of the historical product of the historical product promotion.

14. A method of optimizing a mix of products, on an individual store basis for a target promotion promoting products across a plurality of stores, wherein the optimized mix of products maximizes the overall number of products that are sold during the target promotion, wherein the method comprises the steps:

(a) assessing historical purchase data on an individual store basis to identify the single highest selling historical promotion, wherein the historical promotion and the target promotion comprise substantially the same products on a Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) basis and substantially the same price for each SKU;

(b) determining a historical volume of each product of the identified single highest selling historical promotion;

(c) forecasting a target volume of each product of the target promotion based upon the determined volume for the respective product of the identified single highest selling historical promotion;

(d) optimizing the mix of products for each store for the target promotion based on the forecasted volume of each product to maximize the number of stores that can sell through the products of the target promotion;

(e) shipping the optimized mix of products for each store.

15. The method of claim 14, wherein the step of shipping the optimized mix of product for each store comprises shipping the optimized mix of product via pallet(s), wherein each pallet comprises the optimized mix of products.

16. The method of claim 14, wherein the step of determining the historical volume of each product of the identified single highest selling historical promotion comprises determining an absolute volume of the historical product of the historical product promotion.

17. The method of claim 16, wherein the method is free of assessing base volume of the products of the historical product promotion.

18. The method of claim 14, wherein the target promotion and the historical promotion each have at least three products in common having the same SKU.

19. The method of claim 14, wherein the target promotion comprises a new product, wherein the new product comprises a new SKU.

20. The method of claim 15,

wherein the step of determining the historical volume of each product of the identified single highest selling historical promotion comprises determining an absolute volume of the historical product of the historical product promotion;

wherein the method is free of assessing base volume of the products of the historical product promotion; and

wherein the target promotion and the historical promotion each have at least three products in common having the same SKU.