INSURANCE CLAIM FORECASTING SYSTEM
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented process of developing a person-level cost model for forecasting future costs attributable to claims from members of a book of business, where person-level data regarding actual base period health care claims are available for a substantial portion of the members of the book of business for an actual underwriting period, and the forecast of interest (i.e., future claim amount) is for an actual policy period which can be, but is not necessarily contiguous with the actual underwriting period, comprising the steps of:
- providing development universe data comprising person-level enrollment data, historical base period health care claims data and historical next period claim amount data for a statistically meaningful number of individuals, where the person-level data on a health care claim comprises at least a claim code and a claim amount;
providing at least one claim-based risk factor for each historical base period claim based on the claim code associated with the health care claim and providing at least one enrollment-based risk factor based on the enrollment data; and
developing a cost forecasting model by capturing the predictive ability of the main effects and interactions of claim based risk factors and enrollment-based risk factors, with the development universe data through the application of an interaction capturing technique to the development universe data.
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Abstract
A computer-implemented process of developing a person-level cost model for forecasting future costs attributable to claims from members of a book of business, where person-level data are available for a substantial portion of the members of the book of business for an actual underwriting period, and the forecast of interest is for a policy period is disclosed. The process uses development universe data comprising person-level enrollment data, historical base period health care claims data and historical next period claim amount data for a statistically meaningful number of individuals. The process also provides at least one claim-based risk factor for each historical base period claim based on the claim code associated with the health care claim and provides at least one enrollment-based risk factor based on the enrollment data. The process also develops a cost forecasting model by capturing the predictive ability of the main effects and interactions of claim based risk factors and enrollment-based risk factors, with the development universe data through the application of an interaction capturing technique to the development universe data.
127 Citations
80 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented process of developing a person-level cost model for forecasting future costs attributable to claims from members of a book of business, where person-level data regarding actual base period health care claims are available for a substantial portion of the members of the book of business for an actual underwriting period, and the forecast of interest (i.e., future claim amount) is for an actual policy period which can be, but is not necessarily contiguous with the actual underwriting period, comprising the steps of:
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providing development universe data comprising person-level enrollment data, historical base period health care claims data and historical next period claim amount data for a statistically meaningful number of individuals, where the person-level data on a health care claim comprises at least a claim code and a claim amount; providing at least one claim-based risk factor for each historical base period claim based on the claim code associated with the health care claim and providing at least one enrollment-based risk factor based on the enrollment data; and developing a cost forecasting model by capturing the predictive ability of the main effects and interactions of claim based risk factors and enrollment-based risk factors, with the development universe data through the application of an interaction capturing technique to the development universe data. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
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21. A computer-implemented process of developing a hybrid person-level health care claim cost forecasting model for forecasting future medical costs attributable to health care claims from members of a book of business, where person-level data are available for a substantial portion of the members of the book of business, comprising the steps of:
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providing development universe data comprising person-level data for a statistically meaningful number of individuals, the person-level data comprising continuous variable data and categorical variable data; processing first the continuous variable data for each individual with a continuous processing technique that captures the predictive ability of main effects and interactions of continuous variables to generate a person-level continuous variable model; and processing the categorical variable data for each individual including the output from the continuous processing technique with a categorical processing technique that captures the predictive ability of main effects and interactions of categorical variables to generate a person-level categorical variable model; wherein the person-level continuous variable model and person-level categorical variable model together comprise a hybrid person-level health care claim amount forecasting model. - View Dependent Claims (22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27)
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28. A computer-implemented process of developing a claim amount forecasting model for use in forecasting the future claim amount for members of a book of business, where person-level data are available for a substantial portion of the members of the book of business for an actual base period, and the claim amount of interest for forecasting purposes is an actual next period which can be, but is not necessarily contiguous with the actual base period, comprising the steps of:
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processing the base period data having claims to generate a having-claims claim amount forecasting model; and processing the base period data without claims to generate a without-claims claim amount forecasting model, wherein the having-claims cost forecasting model and the without-claims forecasting model comprise a claim amount forecasting model.
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29. A computer-implemented process of developing a health care claim amount forecasting model for use in forecasting the future medical claim amount for members of a book of business, where person-level data are available for a substantial portion of the members of the book of business for an actual base period, and the claim amount of interest for forecasting purposes is an actual next period which can be, but is not necessarily contiguous with the actual base period, comprising the steps of:
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providing development universe data comprising person-level data for a statistically meaningful plurality of individuals, wherein the person-level data for an individual comprises health care claims data for the individual and the data on a health care claim comprises at least a claim amount and a claim code; Winsorizing the person-level data to yield inlier data and outlier data; processing the inlier data to generate an inlier cost forecasting model; and processing the outlier data to generate an outlier cost forecasting model; wherein the combination of the results of the inlier and outlier cost forecasting models together produce a person-level claim amount forecast model. - View Dependent Claims (30)
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31. A computer-implemented process of forecasting a claim amount attributable to claims from members of a book of business during an actual policy period, comprising the steps of:
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providing person-level data, comprising enrollment data for members of a book of business to be insured for an actual underwriting period that can be, but is not necessarily, contiguous with the actual policy period; providing a model development universe of person-level data, comprising enrollment data from the historical base period and historical next period heath care claims data for a statistically meaningful number of individuals; providing enrollment-based risk factors for each historical base period and providing next period claim amounts; developing a health care cost-forecasting model for the enrollment data by capturing the predictive ability of main effects and interactions of enrollment-based risk factors through the application of an interaction capturing techniques to the model development universe; applying the health care cost-forecasting model to the person-level underwriting period enrollment data of each of the members of the book of business to generate a person-level expected cost forecast for the policy period for each member of the book of business; and producing a group-level forecast for the expected cost of the policy period from the person-level forecasts of each person of the group by totaling the person-level expected cost forecasts for the actual policy period.
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32. A computer-implemented process of forecasting costs attributable to claims from members of a book of business during an actual policy period, comprising the steps of:
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providing person-level data, comprising enrollment data and actual underwriting period health care claims data, for members of a book of business, where the person-level data on a health care claim comprises at least a claim amount and a claim code and the actual underwriting period can be, but is not necessarily, contiguous with the actual policy period; providing a model development universe of person-level data, comprising enrollment data, historical base period health care claims data and historical next period claim amount data for a statistically meaningful number of individuals, where the person-level data on a base period health care claim includes at least a claim amount and a claim code; providing claim-based risk factors for each historical base period based on the claim code associated with the health care claim and providing at least one enrollment risk factor based on the enrollment data; developing a cost-forecasting model by capturing the predictive ability of main effects and interactions of risk factors through the application of an interaction capturing technique to the model development universe; applying the cost-forecasting model to the person-level data of each of the individuals or members of a group to generate a person-level actual policy period expected cost forecast for each member of the group; and producing a group-level forecast for the actual policy period from the person-level forecasts of each individual or member of the group by totaling the person-level cost forecasts for the actual policy period. - View Dependent Claims (33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70)
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47. An automated system for forecasting future costs attributable to claims from members of a book of business during an actual policy period comprising:
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a central processing unit; an insured person database, accessible by the processor, wherein the database comprises person-level enrollment data and actual underwriting period health care claims data, for members of a book of business to be insured, where the person-level data on a health care claim comprises at least a claim amount and a claim code; a model development universe database, accessible by the processor, wherein the second database comprises model development universe of person-level data, comprising enrollment data, historical base period health care claims data and historical next period claim amount data for a statistically meaningful number of individuals, where the person-level data on the base period health care claim includes at least a claim amount and a claim code; a risk factor encoder, accessible by the processor, wherein the risk factor encoder encodes claim-based risk factors for each historical base period based on the claim code associated with the health care claim and the risk factor encoder encodes at least one enrollment risk factor based on the enrollment data; a model generator, accessible by the processor, that generates a cost-forecasting model by capturing the predictive capacity of the main effects and the interaction of the risk factors assigned by the risk factor encoder to forecast the historical next period of the model development universe data using the historical base period data; a person-level cost generator that applies the cost-forecasting model to the person-level actual underwriting period health care claims data of each of the members of the book of business to generate a person-level actual policy period claim amount forecast for each member of the book of business; and an actual policy period group-level cost forecast generator that totals the person-level actual next period forecasts for each member of the group to generate an actual policy period group-level cost forecast. - View Dependent Claims (48, 61)
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49. A computer-implemented process of forecasting costs attributable to claims from members of a book of business during an actual policy period, comprising the steps of:
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means for providing person-level data, comprising enrollment data and actual underwriting period health care claims data, for members of a book of business, where the person-level data on a health care claim comprises at least a claim amount and a claim code and the actual underwriting period can be, but is not necessarily, contiguous with the actual policy period; means for providing a model development universe of person-level data, comprising enrollment data, historical base period health care claims data and historical next period claim amount data for a statistically meaningful number of individuals, where the person-level data on a base period health care claim includes at least a claim amount and a claim code; means for providing claim-based risk factors for each historical base period based on the claim code associated with the health care claim and providing at least one enrollment risk factor based on the enrollment data; means for developing a cost-forecasting model by capturing the predictive ability of main effects and interactions of risk factors through the application of an interaction capturing technique to the model development universe; means for applying the cost-forecasting model to the person-level data of each of the individuals or members of a group to generate a person-level actual policy period expected cost forecast for each member of the group; and means for producing a group-level forecast for the actual policy period from the person-level forecasts of each individual or member of the group by totaling the person-level cost forecasts for the actual policy period. - View Dependent Claims (50, 51)
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71. A method of underwriting an insurance product comprising the steps of:
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providing an identification of the coverage of the insurance product which identifies the conditions of payment under the product during a policy period; providing person-level health care claim information comprising enrollment data, and base period and underwriting period claim data, the claim data comprising claim codes having associated claim costs; capturing the predictive ability of the person-level health care claim information through the application of an interaction capturing technique; and forecasting a predicted cost of the insurance product during the policy period based on the identification of the coverage of the insurance product and the captured predictive ability of the person-level health care claim information; wherein each of diagnosis and CPT based risk factor is independent of the sequence in time of other diagnosis and CPT based risk factors. - View Dependent Claims (72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80)
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Specification