PREDICTIVE MODELING IN A GAMING SYSTEM

• US 20090070081A1
• Filed: 09/05/2008
• Published: 03/12/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 09/06/2007
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: IGT (International Game Technology)
• Original Assignee: IGT (International Game Technology)
• Inventors: Saenz, Javier A., Gress, Brian V., Van Dyk, Nicholas T., Carlson, Daniel G.
• Application Number:
  US12/205,646
• Publication Number:
  US 20090070081A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 703/2
• CPC Class Codes: G07F 17/32 for games, toys, sports, or amusements
• CPC Class Codes: G07F 17/3227 Configuring a gaming machine, e.g. downloading personal settings, selecting working parameters
• CPC Class Codes: G07F 17/3237 about the players, e.g. profiling, responsible gaming, strategy/behavior of players, location of players
• CPC Class Codes: G07F 17/3255 Incentive, loyalty and/or promotion schemes, e.g. comps, gaming associated with a purchase, gaming funded by advertisements

Abstract

Methods and systems for performing comprehensive predictive analysis and modeling in a wager gaming environment are provided. Statistical calculations for deriving predictive values for a patron behavior in a casino or gaming environment may include various criteria, including but not limited to wager gaming activities, resort/hotel usage, dining/meals, non-gaming point of sale transactions, entertainment expenditures, coupon/prize redemption, “comps” provided, etc. In some implementations, a plurality of predictive models may be used. One or more criteria may be used to evaluate and/or rank the predictive models. For example, such an evaluation and/or ranking may be based, at least in part, on a correlation coefficient or a function thereof. In some such implementations, an evaluation and/or ranking may be based, at least in part, on a comparison of the coefficient of determination, R², corresponding to each predictive model.

Claims

1. An apparatus, comprising:

an input device for receiving input from a user regarding a desired predictive model type;

a logic system comprising at least one logic device and configured to do the following;

obtain observed casino patron data from a memory, the observed casino patron data relating to the desired predictive model type;

execute a plurality of predictive models of the desired predictive model type, based at least in part on the observed casino patron data;

evaluate predictive model results for each of the plurality of predictive models according to predetermined criteria; and

select predictive model results according to the predetermined criteria.

2. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the logic system is configured to determine a coefficient of determination for each of the plurality of predictive models and wherein the logic system evaluates the predictive model results according to the coefficient of determination for each of the plurality of predictive models.

3. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the desired predictive model type pertains to an estimated theoretical value of a patron to a casino.

4. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the desired predictive model type involves a prediction of a period of time until a patron'"'"'s next visit to a casino.

5. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the desired predictive model type involves a prediction of a patron'"'"'s likelihood of redeeming an offer.

6. The apparatus of claim 1, further comprising a network interface, wherein the logic system is configured to obtain the observed casino patron data from a data warehouse via the network interface.

7. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the logic system is configured to obtain the patron data from a snowflake-shaped schema, a star-shaped schema or a cube.

8. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the logic system is further configured to use the predictive model results as input for a marketing campaign.

9. The apparatus of claim 3, wherein the estimated theoretical value comprises the estimated theoretical value of the patron during the patron'"'"'s next visit to the casino.

10. The apparatus of claim 3, wherein the estimated theoretical value comprises the estimated theoretical value of the patron to the casino during a predetermined period of time.

11. A method, comprising:

receiving input from a user regarding a desired predictive model type;

obtaining observed casino patron data relating to the desired predictive model type;

executing a plurality of predictive models of the desired predictive model type, based at least in part on the observed casino patron data;

evaluating predictive model results for each of the plurality of predictive models according to predetermined criteria; and

selecting predictive model results according to the predetermined criteria.

12. The method of claim 11, further comprising determining a coefficient of determination for each of the plurality of predictive models, wherein the evaluating comprises evaluating the predictive model results according to the coefficient of determination for each of the plurality of predictive models.

13. The method of claim 11, wherein the desired predictive model type pertains to an estimated theoretical value of a patron to a casino.

14. The method of claim 11, wherein the desired predictive model type involves a prediction of a period of time until a patron'"'"'s next visit to a casino.

15. The method of claim 11, wherein the desired predictive model type involves a prediction of a patron'"'"'s likelihood of redeeming an offer.

16. The method of claim 11, further comprising the step of using the predictive model results as input for a marketing campaign.

17. The method of claim 11, wherein the obtaining comprises obtaining the patron data from a data warehouse.

18. The method of claim 11, wherein the obtaining comprises obtaining the patron data from a snowflake-shaped schema, a star-shaped schema or a cube.

19. The method of claim 13, wherein the estimated theoretical value comprises the estimated theoretical value of the patron during the patron'"'"'s next visit to the casino.

20. The method of claim 13, wherein the estimated theoretical value comprises the estimated theoretical value of the patron to the casino during a predetermined period of time.

21. A method, comprising:

receiving input from a user regarding a desired predictive model type, wherein the desired predictive model type pertains to an estimated theoretical value of a patron to a casino;

obtaining observed casino patron data relating to the desired predictive model type;

executing a plurality of predictive models of the desired predictive model type to produce predictive model results, based at least in part on the observed casino patron data;

determining a coefficient of determination for each of the plurality of predictive models;

producing an evaluation of the predictive model results according to the coefficient of determination for each of the plurality of predictive models; and

selecting predictive model results according to the evaluation.

22. The method of claim 21, further comprising the step of using the predictive model results as input for a marketing campaign.

23. An apparatus, comprising:

means for receiving input from a user regarding a desired predictive model type, wherein the desired predictive model type pertains to an estimated theoretical value of a patron to a casino;

means for obtaining observed casino patron data relating to the desired predictive model type;

means for executing a plurality of predictive models of the desired predictive model type to produce predictive model results, based at least in part on the observed casino patron data;

means for determining a coefficient of determination for each of the plurality of predictive models;

means for producing an evaluation of the predictive model results, at least in part according to the coefficient of determination for each of the plurality of predictive models; and

means for selecting predictive model results according to the evaluation.

24. The apparatus of claim 23, further comprising means for using the predictive model results as input for a marketing campaign.