USER INTERFACE FOR EXPRESSING FORECASTING ESTIMATES

• US 20090073174A1
• Filed: 09/13/2007
• Published: 03/19/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 09/13/2007
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Microsoft Corporation
• Inventors: Berg, Henry G., Proebsting, Todd A.
• Granted Patent: US 7,880,741 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 345/442
• CPC Class Codes: G06T 11/203 Drawing of straight lines or curves

Abstract

A user interface allows a user to freehand draw a probability density curve, or to select from predetermined probability densities, such as a normal distribution. The probability density represents the user'"'"'s opinion regarding the probability of occurrence for different outcomes of a future event. The user can easily manipulate the shape of the probability density by dragging portions of the curve using an input device, such as to change the mean or standard deviation. Further, a scoring rule is applied to the probability density so that an updated score is displayed as the probability density is manipulated. The probability density can be input to an estimate contest or a prediction market, for instance. The user interface can also allow the user to freehand draw a scoring curve from which a probability density can be computed based on a scoring rule.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for allowing a user to express a forecasting estimate, comprising:

receiving a user input, via a user interface, for providing a probability density curve regarding estimated probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of an event;

scoring at least one of the different possible outcomes of the event based on the probability density curve and a scoring rule; and

providing a display, via the user interface, which depicts the probability density curve.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

submitting the probability density curve in an estimate contest which involves estimating the different possible outcomes of the event.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein:

the user selects the probability density curve from a menu of one or more predefined probability density curves.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein:

the user draws the probability density curve via the user interface.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

providing, via the display, and responsive to the scoring, at least one score.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

receiving a user input for modifying the probability density curve; and

providing updated scores in real time as the user modifies the probability density curve.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 6, wherein:

the user modifies a shape of the probability density curve via the user interface by dragging at least a portion of the probability density curve using an input device.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 6, wherein:

the user modifies a position of the probability density curve relative to the different possible outcomes of the event via the user interface.

9. A computer-implemented method for allowing a user to express a scoring curve, comprising:

receiving a user input via a user interface for defining a scoring curve for different possible outcomes of an event; and

displaying the scoring curve on the user interface in response to the user input, the scoring curve provides scores for the different possible outcomes of the event based on applying a scoring rule to associated probabilities of occurrence of the different possible outcomes of the event.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising:

determining a probability density curve based on the scoring curve.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising:

receiving a user input via the user interface for modifying the scoring curve, and displaying a modified scoring curve in response thereto.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein:

the user selects the scoring curve from a menu of one or more predefined scoring curves.

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein:

the user draws the scoring curve via the user interface.

14. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein:

the user modifies a shape of the scoring curve via the user interface by dragging at least a portion of the scoring curve using an input device.

15. Computer readable media having computer readable software embodied thereon for programming at least one processor to perform a method, the method comprising:

displaying an initial probability density curve regarding estimated probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of an event, the initial probability density curve is provided in response to a user input;

providing an initial score for the initial probability density curve for at least one of the estimated probabilities of occurrence;

receiving a user input for modifying the initial probability density curve; and

providing updated scores in real time as the user modifies the initial probability density curve.

16. The computer readable media of claim 15, wherein the method performed further comprises:

in response to a user input, submitting at least one modified probability density curve in an estimate contest which involves estimating the different possible outcomes of the event.

17. The computer readable media of claim 15, wherein:

the user selects the initial probability density curve from a menu of one or more predefined probability density curves.

18. The computer readable media of claim 15, wherein:

the user draws the probability density curve via a user interface.

19. The computer readable media of claim 15, wherein:

the user modifies a shape of the initial probability density curve via a user interface.

20. The computer readable media of claim 15, wherein:

the user modifies a position of the initial probability density curve relative to the different possible outcomes of the event via a user interface.