Method and system to improve engineered system decisions and transfer risk

• US 20090076873A1
• Filed: 09/19/2007
• Published: 03/19/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 09/19/2007
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: General Electric Company
• Original Assignee: General Electric Company
• Inventors: Bassir, Oladimeji, Dulgeroglu, Onur Ilkin, Alkemper, Jens, Johnson, Christopher Donald, Osborn, Brock Estel
• Application Number:
  US11/901,992
• Publication Number:
  US 20090076873A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/8
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/02 Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining

Abstract

A method and system are provided to improve industrial engineered systems such as oil well drilling decisions and transfer risk. The method and system each include an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to select a portfolio of engineered systems and entities that the systems will process such as aircraft engines and flights, rigs and reserves, apparatus configuration, apparatus inspection, apparatus on line sensors, dynamic operations decisioning for the apparatus and drill path or asset dispatching and a contractual incentive to allocate risks to stakeholders best positioned to abate them. The decision support will reduce a fleet'"'"'s financial risk associated with the cost of operations below that achievable without using the interactive decision-support planning tool and/or increase financial return associated with the cost of activity above that achievable without using the interactive decision-support planning tool, such that the financial risk and/or financial return are allocated in a desired manner among a plurality of operations stakeholders.

Claims

1. A method of drilling a well, the method comprising:

providing an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to drill the well and how to make drilling decisions while the well is being drilled; and

operating the decision-support planning tool to generate drilling decisions that reduce financial risk associated with the cost of drilling the well below that achievable without using the interactive decision-support planning tool and/or increase financial return associated with the cost of drilling the well above that achievable without using the interactive decision-support planning tool, such that the financial risk and/or financial return are allocated in a desired manner among a plurality of drilling operation stakeholders, wherein the stakeholders are held contracturally to subsets of the fleet of asset'"'"'s risks.

2. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to determine the financial risk and/or return in configurable time segments associated with a plurality of physical well drilling systems using a simulation based approach comprised of inter-operable model objects and taxonomy that comprise at least one of a physical system object, a financial object and an exogenous assumption object.

3. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to integrate multiple modeling, factoring between exogenous and endogenous variation and decision elements for the calculation of optionality, risk and/or return related to the cost and benefit of configuring and drilling the well.

4. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool such that the financial risk and/or return is based on selection of relevant objects for simulation of a well drilling configuration in the presence of exogenous variation.

5. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool such that the financial risk is based on calculation of probabilities of a change in risk for an operating configuration in the presence of exogenous assumption variation.

6. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool such that the financial return is based on calculation of probabilities of a change in return for an operating configuration in the presence of exogenous assumption variation.

7. The method according to claim 1, further comprising calculating a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a physical system configuration.

8. The method according to claim 1, further comprising calculating a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for an operations decision.

9. The method according to claim 1, further comprising calculating a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a change in a physical or financial state of the well drilling method.

10. The method according to claim 1, further comprising calculating a value change in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a physical well drilling system configuration, an operations decision or change in the state of the physical well drilling system or financial constraints as a decision support tool during establishment of contract terms, pricing, renewal, termination or intra contract period adjustments.

11. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to calculate a path dependent value or risk change for a configuration or operating decision.

12. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to aid optimization, scheduling, dispatch, terms, operating parameters and pricing to effect financial and/or operational metrics related to a physical well drilling system or financial constraints.

13. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to utilize a change in risk and/or return at a point of operations decisioning in order to improve local and/or global probabilities of higher economic value creation relative to the probability of a shortfall or violation of a constraint.

14. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to integrate analytical transfer functions with a publish and subscribe messaging architecture having a structured taxonomy for the calculation of risk and/or return related to physical or financial systems.

15. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to analyze real world and simulated data by the storage of actual operating parameters, results and values whether generated in actual physical operations or simulation where these values are captured and recorded as integral to objects being simulated.

16. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to analyze real world and simulated data by the storage of actual operating parameters, results and values whether generated in actual physical operations or simulation where these values are captured and recorded in a separate database designed to capture longitudinal values.

17. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to record the consumption of parts, parts life, operating parameters, state of the system, exogenous forces, costs and taken or anticipated decisions for the purposes of analytical simulations to calculate what-if scenario risk and return in oil well drilling apparatus.

18. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to provide automated analytical workflow to clean, configure and call requisite data, populate and call the requisite transfer functions and post process results for dynamically configurable presentation.

19. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to shift and/or measure a financial risk and/or return associated with a cost of drilling the well, to a desired business entity.

20. The method according to claim 1, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to provide a systematic approach that raises the mean productivity of fleet drilling apparatus by improving the likelihood of differentially more value creation than risk across a plurality of discrete decisions in asset matching, drilling selection, setup and operation, while also reducing the frequency of very costly field failures far down a well hole.

21. The method according to claim 1, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to be responsive to historical life data, inspection life assessment and simulated forward duty forward and/or actual sensor readings to calculate drill speed, weight on bit, drill path, and drill path route intermediate branch point via the interactive decision-support planning tool.

22. The method according to claim 1, wherein providing an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to drill the well and how to make drilling decisions while the well is being drilled comprises providing a fleet portfolio rationalization process to match what rig configuration on which rig to what reserve, in temporal progression.

23. A system for drilling a well, the system comprising:

an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to drill the well and how to make drilling decisions while the well is being drilled; and

a plurality of sensors operational to generate data used by the interactive decision-support planning tool to reduce financial risk associated with the cost of drilling the well below that achievable without using the interactive decision-support planning tool and/or increase financial return associated with the cost of drilling the well above that achievable without using the interactive decision-support planning tool, such that the financial risk and/or financial return are allocated in a desired manner among a plurality of drilling operation stakeholders, wherein the stakeholders are held contracturally to subsets of a fleet of asset'"'"'s risks.

24. The system according to claim 23, wherein the financial risk and/or return is based upon configurable time segments associated with a plurality of physical well drilling systems using a simulation based approach comprised of inter-operable model objects and taxonomy that comprise at least one of a physical system object, a financial object and an exogenous assumption object.

25. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to aid the user via integrating multiple modeling modalities between exogenous and endogenous elements for the calculation of the risk and/or return related to the cost of drilling the well.

26. The system according to claim 23, wherein the financial risk and/or return is based upon selection of relevant objects for simulation of a well drilling configuration in the presence of exogenous variation.

27. The system according to claim 23, wherein the financial risk is based on calculation of probabilities of a change in risk for an operating configuration in the presence of exogenous assumption variation.

28. The system according to claim 23, wherein the financial return is based on calculation of probabilities of a change in return for an operating configuration in the presence of exogenous assumption variation.

29. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to calculate a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a physical system configuration.

30. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to calculate a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for an operations decision.

31. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to calculate a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a change in a physical or financial state of the well drilling method.

32. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to calculate a value change in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a physical well drilling system configuration, an operations decision or change in the state of the physical well drilling system or financial constraints as a decision support tool during establishment of contract terms, pricing, renewal, termination or intra contract period adjustments.

33. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool functions to calculate a path dependent value or risk change for a configuration or operating decision.

34. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to aid optimization, scheduling, dispatch, terms, operating parameters and pricing to affect financial and/or operational metrics related to a physical well drilling system or financial constraints.

35. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to utilize a change in risk and/or return at a point of operations decisioning in order to improve local and/or global probabilities of higher economic value creation relative to the probability of a shortfall or violation of a constraint.

36. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to integrate a plurality of analytical transfer functions with a publish and subscribe messaging architecture having a structured taxonomy for the calculation of risk and/or return related to physical or financial systems.

37. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to analyze real world and simulated data by the storage of actual operating parameters, results and values whether generated in actual physical operations or simulation where these values are captured and recorded as integral to objects being simulated.

38. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to analyze real world and simulated data by the storage of actual operating parameters, results and values whether generated in actual physical operations or simulation where these values are captured and recorded in a separate database designed to capture longitudinal values.

39. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to record the consumption of parts, parts life, operating parameters, state of the system, exogenous forces, costs and taken or anticipated decisions for the purposes of analytical simulations to calculate what-if scenario risk and return in oil well drilling apparatus.

40. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to provide automated analytical workflow to clean, configure and call requisite data, populate and call the requisite transfer functions and post process results for dynamically configurable presentation.

41. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to shift a financial risk and/or return associated with a cost of drilling the well, to a desired business entity.

42. The system according to claim 23, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to provide a systematic approach that raises the mean productivity of fleet drilling apparatus by improving the likelihood of differentially more value creation than risk across a plurality of discrete decisions in drilling selection, setup and operation, while also reducing the frequency of very costly field failures far down a well hole.

43. The system according to claim 23, wherein the plurality of sensors are configured to generate signals selected from weight on bit, revolutions per minute, vibration, torque, hole condition, bit aggressiveness, depth of cut, mechanical specific energy, and rock compressive strength signals.

44. The system according to claim 23, where the interactive decision-support planning tool comprises transfer functions related to configuration, selection and operations that are deployed to find the robust coverage of oil assets with available fleet using fleet risk and return in the objective function in configurable accounting periods.

45. A system for drilling a well, the system comprising an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to drill the well and how to make drilling decisions while the well is being drilled, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to simulate usage of well drilling equipment and resources through time to support allocation of financial risk and/or financial return in a desired manner among a plurality of drilling operation stakeholders in response to desired input information, wherein the stakeholders are held contracturally to subsets of a fleet of asset'"'"'s risks.

46. The system according to claim 45, wherein the desired input information is selected from equipment failure mode information, current equipment state information, predicted equipment usage information, scheduled event information, decision logic and behavior information, and event based cost distributions information.

47. The system according to claim 46, wherein the equipment failure mode information is based on historical failure data and engineering knowledge.

48. The system according to claim 46, wherein the equipment current state information is based on original equipment condition data, previous equipment usage data, and equipment repair history data.

49. The system according to claim 46, wherein the current equipment state information is based on equipment sensor data.

50. The system according to claim 45, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is further configured to generate stochastic financial forecast data in response to the desired input information.

51. The system according to claim 45, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured is further configured to generate stochastic event forecast data in response to the desired input information.

52. A method of operating an industrial engineered system, the method comprising:

providing an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to operate an industrial engineered system and how to make system decisions while the system is operational; and

operating the interactive decision-support planning tool to generate operational decisions that reduce financial risk associated with the cost of operating the system below that achievable without using the interactive decision-support planning tool and/or increase financial return associated with the cost of operating the system above that achievable without using the interactive decision-support planning tool, such that the financial risk and/or financial return are allocated in a desired manner among a plurality of industrial engineered system operation stakeholders, wherein the stakeholders are held contracturally to subsets of a fleet of asset'"'"'s risks.

53. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to determine the financial risk and/or return in configurable time segments associated with a plurality of system assets using a simulation based approach comprised of inter-operable model objects and taxonomy that comprise at least one of a physical system object, a financial object and an exogenous assumption object.

54. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to integrate multiple modeling, factoring between exogenous and endogenous variation and decision elements for the calculation of optionality, risk and/or return related to the cost and benefit of configuring and operating the industrial engineered system.

55. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool such that the financial risk and/or return is based on selection of relevant objects for simulation of an industrial engineered system configuration in the presence of exogenous variation.

56. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool such that the financial risk is based on calculation of probabilities of a change in risk for an operating configuration in the presence of exogenous assumption variation.

57. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool such that the financial return is based on calculation of probabilities of a change in return for an operating configuration in the presence of exogenous assumption variation.

58. The method according to claim 52, further comprising calculating a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a physical system configuration.

59. The method according to claim 52, further comprising calculating a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for an operations decision.

60. The method according to claim 52, further comprising calculating a relationship between risk and return for a configurable time segment in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a change in a physical or financial state of the industrial engineered system.

61. The method according to claim 52, further comprising calculating a value change in the presence of exogenous assumption variation for a physical system configuration, an operations decision or change in the state of the physical system or financial constraints as a decision support tool during establishment of contract terms, pricing, renewal, termination or intra contract period adjustments.

62. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to calculate a path dependent value or risk change for a configuration or operating decision.

63. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to aid optimization, scheduling, dispatch, terms, operating parameters and pricing to effect financial and/or operational metrics related to a physical industrial engineered system or financial constraints.

64. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to utilize a change in risk and/or return at a point of operations decisioning in order to improve local and/or global probabilities of higher economic value creation relative to the probability of a shortfall or violation of a constraint.

65. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to integrate analytical transfer functions with a publish and subscribe messaging architecture having a structured taxonomy for the calculation of risk and/or return related to physical or financial systems.

66. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to analyze real world and simulated data by the storage of actual operating parameters, results and values whether generated in actual physical operations or simulation where these values are captured and recorded as integral to objects being simulated.

67. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to analyze real world and simulated data by the storage of actual operating parameters, results and values whether generated in actual physical operations or simulation where these values are captured and recorded in a separate database designed to capture longitudinal values.

68. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to record the consumption of parts, parts life, operating parameters, state of the system, exogenous forces, costs and taken or anticipated decisions for the purposes of analytical simulations to calculate what-if scenario risk and return in industrial engineered system apparatus.

69. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to provide automated analytical workflow to clean, configure and call requisite data, populate and call the requisite transfer functions and post process results for dynamically configurable presentation.

70. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to shift and/or measure a financial risk and/or return associated with a cost of operating the industrial engineered system, to a desired business entity.

71. The method according to claim 52, further comprising operating the decision-support planning tool to provide a systematic approach that raises the mean productivity of fleet system apparatus by improving the likelihood of differentially more value creation than risk across a plurality of discrete decisions in asset matching, selection, setup and operation, while also reducing the frequency of undesired very costly field failures.

72. The method according to claim 52, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to operate in response to equipment failure mode information, current equipment state information, predicted equipment usage information, scheduled event information, decision logic and behavior information, and event based cost distributions information.

73. The method according to claim 52, wherein providing an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to operate an industrial engineered system and how to make industrial engineered system decisions while the system is being operated comprises providing a fleet portfolio rationalization process to match what system asset configuration on which asset to what asset reserve, in temporal progression.

74. The method according to claim 52, wherein providing an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to operate an industrial engineered system and how to make industrial engineered system decisions while the system is being operated comprises providing an interactive decision-support planning tool that aids a user as to how to drill a well and how to make drilling decisions while the well is being drilled, wherein the interactive decision-support planning tool is configured to simulate usage of well drilling equipment and resources through time to support allocation of financial risk and/or financial return in a desired manner among a plurality of drilling operation stakeholders in response to desired input information, wherein the stakeholders are held contracturally to subsets of a fleet of asset'"'"'s risks.