CONTINUOUS BETTING INTERFACE TO PREDICTION MARKET

• US 20090076939A1
• Filed: 09/13/2007
• Published: 03/19/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 09/13/2007
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Microsoft Corporation
• Inventors: PROEBSTING, TODD A., BERG, HENRY G.
• Granted Patent: US 8,341,065 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/37
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange

Abstract

A user participates in trading securities in a prediction market which represent different outcomes of an event, using an interface which allows the user to understand a trade in terms of a bet. The interface also allows the user to explore different bet amounts while receiving feedback on potential payoffs in real time. In one approach, a tool is used which is moved in one direction by the user to indicate a larger trade for an outcome, or in the opposite direction to indicate a larger trade against the outcome. A bet for an outcome can be translated into a purchase of a corresponding security which represents the outcome. A bet against a particular outcome can be translated into a purchase of securities which represents all other outcomes. The user interfaces hides complexities of the market from the user while surfacing relevant information.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for trading in a prediction market, comprising:

receiving a user input, via a user interface, for placing a bet regarding a possible outcome of an event, the input indicating a bet amount; and

providing an output, via the user interface, in response to the input, indicating a potential payoff of the bet, the payoff is determined from a prediction market.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

executing a trade in the prediction market according to the bet.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein:

when the bet is for the outcome, the potential payoff is determined by a cost of shares of at least one security in the prediction market which represents the outcome.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein:

when the bet is against the outcome, the potential payoff is determined from costs of shares of securities in the prediction market which represent other outcomes of the event.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein:

the user interface comprises a tool which is manipulated by the user to express a range of bet amounts, the user interface provides corresponding potential payoffs in real time as the tool is manipulated.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 5, wherein:

the tool is manipulated by the user to express whether the bet is for or against the outcome.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 5, wherein:

the potential payoffs reflect odds which vary based on bet amount.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

receiving user inputs, via the user interface, for placing bets regarding different possible outcomes of the event, and providing an output, via the user interface, in response thereto, indicating potential payoffs of the bets.

9. A computer-implemented method for trading in a prediction market, comprising:

providing an output, via a user interface, which identifies different possible outcomes of an event;

receiving a user command which places a bet regarding at least one of the possible outcomes; and

in response to the user command, executing a trade in the prediction market for at least one security.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising:

providing an output, via the user interface, which identifies a potential payoff for the bet, the potential payoff is determined based on an amount of the bet and a cost of the at least one security.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising:

receiving a user command exploring a range of bet amounts, and providing an output, via the user interface, in which the potential payoff is changed in correspondence with the bet amounts.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein:

the at least one security represents the at least one of the possible outcomes when the bet is for the at least one of the possible outcomes.

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein:

the at least one security represents outcomes other than the at least one of the possible outcomes when the bet is against the at least one of the possible outcomes.

14. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising:

receiving user inputs regarding estimated probabilities of occurrence for the different possible outcomes of the event; and

displaying the estimated probabilities of occurrence with a betting interface for receiving the user command.

15. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising:

providing an output, via the user interface, which identifies odds of winning for the bet, the odds of winning are determined based on a cost and a potential payoff of the at least one security.

16. Computer readable media having computer readable software embodied thereon for programming at least one processor to perform a method, the method comprising:

receiving a user input, via a user interface, for exploring different bet amounts in a range of bet amounts, for use in placing a bet regarding a possible outcome of an event; and

displaying potential payoffs, via the user interface, which correspond to the different bet amounts, the potential payoffs are displayed in real time as the different bet amounts are explored, the potential payoffs are determined according to at least one security in a prediction market.

17. The computer readable media of claim 16, wherein:

the potential payoffs vary as a function of winning odds, and the winning odds vary as a function of bet amount.

18. The computer readable media of claim 16, wherein:

the user interface comprises a sliding tool which is manipulated by the user using a pointing device for exploring the different bet amounts.

19. The computer readable media of claim 16, wherein:

via the user interface, the user explores placing bets regarding different possible outcomes of the event.

20. The computer readable media of claim 16, wherein the method performed further includes:

displaying odds of winning, via the user interface, for a bet amount, the odds of winning depend on the bet amount.